免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1141.00 | +48.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1615.00 | +30.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 796849.00 | +32505.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 50354.00 | -1172.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -99841.00 | +63 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In July 2025, the stock index continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the high of the year, and all industry indices achieved positive returns. Although the market fluctuated at the end of the month, the continuous policy efforts changed market expectations significantly, and the inflow of funds continued. The bullish atmosphere in the stock market became more evident, and the upward trend of the stock index remained unchanged despite the oscillations [3][4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Performance Review - Bottoming Out and Stabilizing - In July 2025, the market continued to oscillate upward. By July 30, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 5.47%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 3.96%, the CSI 500 index rose 6.75%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 5.7% [5]. - All industries achieved positive returns, with non - metallic materials and metal materials rising more than 10% monthly, healthcare having a high increase, and the bank index, the previous market stabilizer, having the smallest increase [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Performance Review - Continued Convergence of Premium - After June, the premium of stock index futures continued to converge. After the peak of concentrated dividends of listed companies passed and the spot market performed well, the basis returned to normal. After the expiration and delivery of the July contracts and the listing of the 2603 contracts, the basis of the next - quarter contracts of IC and IM expanded periodically, but the basis of IF did not expand significantly, and IH even showed a premium [12]. - In July, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased steadily. The average daily trading volume of IM, IF, IH, and IC increased by 1.9%, 7.3%, 8.6%, and 6.7% respectively compared with the previous month, and the average daily open interest increased by 1.9%, 3.5%, 8.2%, and 12.1% respectively. The 2509 contract's position as the absolute main contract was unshakable, and it was expected to shift positions to the 2512 contract on a large scale starting in August [16]. - The convergence of the premium significantly reduced the roll - over cost of short positions in stock index futures. The cost of rolling over the current - month contracts of IM, IC, and IF to the next - month contracts was the lowest, with monthly average annualized costs of 9.57%, 7.64%, and 2.82% respectively, down 3.17, 1.68, and 1.53 percentage points from the previous month. The cost of rolling over IH short positions to the next - quarter contracts was the lowest, with a monthly average annualized cost of 0.12% [23]. - From the perspective of the positions of major seats, the net short positions of the major seats of each variety were generally stable. The net short positions of the major seats of IM showed a slight upward trend, with the average monthly net short positions of the top ten seats increasing by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; the average monthly net short positions of the top five seats of IH also increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month [26]. 3.3 Oscillations Do Not Change the Upward Trend - **Economic Policy Continues to Strengthen**: In July, continuous policy signals changed market expectations significantly. The prices of pro - cyclical commodities reversed sharply, driving up the stock prices of sectors such as rare earths and non - ferrous metals, and also strengthening sectors such as steel and coal, creating a bullish atmosphere in the stock market. Although the market oscillated significantly on July 30, the policy of "regulating disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promoting capacity governance in key industries" is expected to be continuously implemented in the second half of the year, which will have a positive impact on the industry ecosystem and the performance of listed companies [30][31]. - **Event - Driven Re - evaluation**: On July 19, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. Affected by this, the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower concept sector and related stocks rose sharply, and sectors such as cement, building materials, engineering machinery, steel, and construction also rose significantly. The project has a long construction period and large investment, which is expected to benefit relevant sectors, and the market may benefit from the re - evaluation of multiple weak sectors [32][33]. - **Continuous Inflow of Funds into the Market**: According to the second - quarter report of public funds, Central Huijin increased its holdings of key broad - based ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter of 2025, with a holding scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, which stabilized market expectations. At the same time, the margin trading balance reached a new high this year, indicating high investor confidence and a positive impact on the market [34][35].