数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1096.50 | -6.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1632.50 | +18.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 859403.00 | +17120.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49177.00 | -782.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -10 ...

免责声明 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/11/20 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1113.50 | -26.00↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1633.50 | -5.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 912017.00 | -2263.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49628.00 | +601.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -113822.00 | +14420.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -1682.00 | +469.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差 ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/11/19 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1139.50 | -19.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1639.00 | -10.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 914280.00 | -19994.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49027.00 | +154.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 12, the closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1219.0, down 1.85%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1540, equivalent to 1320 on the futures market. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation. Fundamentally, the mine's operating rate has declined for three consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory and mid - and downstream restocking, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors should control risks [2]. - On November 12, the closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1689.5, down 1.89%. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented on the spot side. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the pig iron output continued its seasonal decline, with a pig iron output of 234.22 (-2.14) million tons, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was -22 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors should control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1219.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00; J main contract closing price was 1689.50 yuan/ton, up 4.50. JM futures contract open interest was 929535.00 lots, down 39049.00; J futures contract open interest was 48913.00 lots, down 675.00. The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was -102322.00 lots, up 6426.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was -4058.00 lots, up 225.00. JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 60.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50; J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 146.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. Coking coal warehouse receipts were 200.00, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 1111.00 yuan/ton, down 34.00; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1830.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 161.30 US dollars/wet ton, up 1.30; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1600.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00; the price of Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1860.00, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1330.00, unchanged. JM main contract basis was 391.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00; J main contract basis was 140.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.40 million tons, down 0.10; the refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 300.80 million tons, up 5.80. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, down 0.00; the raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80. The import volume of coal and lignite was 4173.70 million tons, down 426.30; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 186.30, down 4.00. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 527.38 million tons, up 13.49; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 262.51 million tons, down 7.39. The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1070.02 million tons, up 17.32; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.30 million tons, down 1.57. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 787.30 million tons, down 9.02; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 626.64 million tons, down 2.41. The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.84 days, down 0.12; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.07 days, down 0.50 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00. The coking coal output was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.31%, down 1.13. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was -22.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00. The coke output was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.15%, up 1.42; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80. The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84. Steel mills in Xinjiang are gradually implementing winter maintenance and production cuts. It is estimated that the cumulative reduction of construction steel output in Xinjiang during the winter maintenance and production cut period will be about 2 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total construction steel output in Xinjiang in 2025 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The current RMB loan balance in China has reached 270 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing scale has reached 437 trillion yuan. As the base increases, it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, which is consistent with China's economic transformation from high - speed growth to high - quality development. The central bank will continue to optimize the intermediate variables of monetary policy and gradually淡化 its focus on quantitative targets. The People's Bank of China issued the third - quarter monetary policy implementation report on Tuesday. Compared with the second quarter, it specifically proposed to carry out counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments according to changes in the economic and financial situation, and said that it would closely monitor the monetary policy changes of major overseas central banks and continuously strengthen the analysis and monitoring of the supply and demand of bank system liquidity and changes in the financial market [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 3, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5, down 0.85%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. The mine's start - up rate has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The start - up rate of coal washing plants has decreased, while the middle and downstream are replenishing stocks, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend [2]. - On November 3, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5, down 1.17%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation driven by cost. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1,284.50元/吨，环比下跌1.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1,771.50元/吨，环比下跌5.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为954,896.00手，环比减少3,107.00手；J期货合约持仓量为50,255.00手，环比增加377.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 62,214.00手，环比减少5,683.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5,533.00手，环比增加127.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为63.00元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为137.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为500.00张，环比增加500.00张；焦炭仓单为2,070.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1,170.00元/吨，环比无变化；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1,775.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为157.50美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,700.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,670.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,760.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1,520.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1,280.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为235.50元/吨，环比上涨1.50元；J主力合约基差为3.50元/吨，环比上涨60.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.50万吨，环比减少0.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为284.40万吨，环比减少5.20万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比无变化；原煤产量为41,150.50万吨，环比增加2,100.80万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4,600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.30万吨，环比减少0.60万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为513.89万吨，环比增加6.71万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为269.90万吨，环比增加9.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1,052.70万吨，环比增加23.00万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为59.87万吨，环比增加1.23万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为796.32万吨，环比增加13.36万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为629.05万吨，环比减少4.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.96天，环比增加0.19天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.57天，环比增加0.50天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为1,092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为54.00万吨，环比减少1.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为3,696.86万吨，环比减少392.52万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.44%，环比减少0.03% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元；焦炭产量为4,255.60万吨，环比减少4.10万吨 [2]. National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.73%，环比减少3.00%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为88.59%，环比减少1.33% [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2]. Industry News - On October 31, the Yunnan Iron and Steel Industry Anti - Involution Seminar was held in Kunming. Representatives from major steel enterprises in the province attended, emphasizing that anti - involution is the common responsibility of the entire industry and a long - term strategic choice [2]. - The president of the China Animal Husbandry Association stated that high - quality development in the pig breeding industry does not exclude competition. Enterprises must innovate, reduce grain consumption, and control pig production capacity. Government departments need to intervene in the disorderly involution - style competition in the industry [2]. - Since October 1, the US government shutdown has set the second - longest record. Over one million US military soldiers face salary payment problems, and about 42 million people in the US may face food shortages in November. The shutdown may last until late November [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1288.0, up 1.62%. On the spot side, the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. Fundamentally, the mine - end operating rate declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, the inventory was neutral, the operating rate of coal washing plants declined this period, and the mid - and downstream replenished stocks, with the total inventory showing a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation [2]. - On October 30, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1786.5, up 0.59%. On the spot side, coking plants proposed a third price increase for coke. The Fed's rate cut and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders were finalized, and the market sentiment declined during the day. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the pig iron output continued its seasonal decline this period, with the pig iron output at 239.90 (-1.05 million tons), and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 41 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation driven by cost [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1288.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1786.50 yuan/ton, down 14.50. The JM futures contract position was 970861.00 lots, down 15149.00; the J futures contract position was 50050.00 lots, down 515.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 63853.00 lots, down 10014.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 5584.00 lots, down 544.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 140.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The coking coal warehouse receipt was 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipt was 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1140.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 157.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1760.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 232.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00; the basis of the J main contract was - 11.50 yuan/ton, up 69.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.50 million tons, down 0.20; the refined coal inventory was 284.40 million tons, down 5.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.37%, down 0.00. The raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80. The import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.30, down 0.60. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 507.18 million tons, up 19.02; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.79 million tons, up 8.14. The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1029.70 million tons, up 32.33; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.64 million tons, up 1.35. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.96 million tons, down 5.36; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 633.16 million tons, down 6.28. The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.77 days, down 0.13; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.07 days, down 0.12 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00. The output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, down 0.77. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00. The output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.73%, up 0.48; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.92%, down 0.39. The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - China's President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [2]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [2]. - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% [2]. - Some coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong proposed a third price increase for coke on October 29, with a tamping increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton and a top - charging increase of 70 - 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 31 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 29, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1302.0, up 3.50%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. With the "15th Five - Year Plan" aiming to break obstacles in the national unified market, on the fundamental side, the mine - end开工率 decreased due to safety supervision, and the inventory was neutral. The开工率 of coal washing plants declined, while the mid - and downstream sectors replenished stocks, with the inventory expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a shock - strengthening trend. [2] - On October 29, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1763.0, down 0.25%. In the afternoon, coking plants proposed a third - round price increase for coke, driving up the futures price. The "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on promoting people - centered new urbanization. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the molten iron output continued its seasonal decline to 239.90 (-1.05 tons), and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was -41 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a cost - driven shock - strengthening trend. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1302.00元/吨，环比上涨60.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1801.00元/吨，环比上涨53.50元 [2] - JM期货合约持仓量为986010.00手，环比增加74792.00手；J期货合约持仓量为50565.00手，环比增加1262.00手 [2] - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 53839.00手，环比增加9484.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5040.00手，环比减少608.00手 [2] - JM5 - 1月合约价差为76.50元/吨，环比上涨11.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为143.00元/吨，环比上涨13.50元 [2] - 焦煤仓单为0.00张，无变化；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，无变化 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1131.00元/吨，环比下降4.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1775.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元 [2] - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为157.50美元/湿吨，无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2] - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1700.00元/吨，无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1670.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2] - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1760.00元/吨，无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2] - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1520.00元/吨，无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1280.00元/吨，无变化 [2] - JM主力合约基差为218.00元/吨，环比下降60.00元；J主力合约基差为 - 26.00元/吨，环比上涨1.50元 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.50万吨，环比下降0.20万吨；精煤库存为284.40万吨，环比下降5.20万吨 [2] - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比无变化；原煤产量为41150.50万吨，环比增加2100.80万吨 [2] - 煤及褐煤进口量为4600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.00万吨，环比下降5.10万吨 [2] - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为507.18万吨，环比增加19.02万吨；18个港口焦炭库存为260.79万吨，环比增加8.14万吨 [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1029.70万吨，环比增加32.33万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为58.64万吨，环比增加1.35万吨 [2] - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.96万吨，环比下降5.36万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为633.16万吨，环比下降6.28万吨 [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.77天，环比下降0.13天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.07天，环比下降0.12天 [2] - 炼焦煤进口量为1092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；炼焦煤产量为3696.86万吨，环比下降392.52万吨 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 焦炭及半焦炭出口量为54.00万吨，环比下降1.00万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.47%，环比下降0.77% [2] - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为 - 41.00元/吨，环比下降28.00元；焦炭产量为4255.60万吨，环比下降4.10万吨 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.73%，环比上涨0.48%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.92%，环比下降0.39% [2] - 粗钢产量为7349.01万吨，环比下降387.84万吨 [2] 3.6 Industry News - “十五五规划建议”提出推进以人为本的新型城镇化 优化城市规模结构 促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展 [2] - “十五五规划建议”提出破除全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点 整治“内卷式”竞争 保持投资合理增长 提高民生类政府投资比重 建立健全各类市场 [2] - 蒙古国政局内部斗争对煤炭进口暂无影响 本周三大口岸通关车数重回高位 [2] - 2025年10月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值较9月上涨43元/吨 涨幅3.1% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 28, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1242.0, down 0.76%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No.5 clean coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On October 28, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1747.5, down 0.96%. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It is driven by cost and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1242.00 yuan/ton, down 21.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1747.50 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 911,218.00 lots, down 16,022.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 49,303.00 lots, down 710.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 63,323.00 lots, up 1,548.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 4,432.00 lots, up 44.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 65.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 129.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 2,070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No.5 raw coal was 1,135.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 157.50 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,760.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,520.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory was 1,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the JM main contract was 278.00 yuan/ton, up 91.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 27.50 yuan/ton, up 87.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.70 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 289.60 million tons, down 0.80 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.01%; the monthly raw coal output was 41,150.50 million tons, up 2,100.80 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4,600.00 million tons, up 326.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.00 thousand tons, down 5.10 thousand tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 507.18 million tons, up 19.02 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.79 million tons, up 8.14 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1,029.70 million tons, up 32.33 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.64 million tons, up 1.35 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.96 million tons, down 5.36 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 633.16 million tons, down 6.28 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.77 days, down 0.13 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.07 days, down 0.12 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1,092.36 million tons, up 76.14 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3,696.86 million tons, down 392.52 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, down 0.77% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton; the monthly output of coke was 4,255.60 million tons, down 4.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7,349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei have issued letters to increase the coke purchase price, with a wet - quenching increase of 50 yuan/ton and a dry - quenching increase of 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 27 [2]. - The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the US government debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 143.4% by 2030, exceeding that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century [2]. - On October 27, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the Fifth Leaders' Meeting of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The parties to the agreement should cooperate more closely to jointly address challenges [2]. - US President Trump said that Russian President Putin should end the war in Ukraine instead of testing nuclear missiles, and added that the US has deployed a nuclear - powered submarine near the Russian coast [2]. - On October 25, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the major "west - to - east coal transportation" artery in China, completed its autumn maintenance, laying a foundation for coal supply during the coming winter and spring [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1,100 and 1,350. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 37.43%, and its historical percentile is 71.00% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1,550 and 1,850. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 30.04%, and its historical percentile is 63.17% [3]. Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Hedging**: For coke, when steel mills' profit margins shrink and coke enterprises face difficulties in price hikes, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the price range of (1,780, 1,830) and 50% at (1,830 - 1,880) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For coking coal, due to factors like macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low mine开工率, and potential supply disruptions, coking plants worried about future price increases can buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the price range of (1,150, 1,180) and 50% at (1,120, 1,150) [3]. Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - **Steel Products**: On October 24, 2025, the inventory of rebar was 150,419 tons (up 1,437 tons day - on - day and down 148,632 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 137,065 tons (down 4,799 tons day - on - day and down 11,346 tons week - on - week) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The inventory of iron ore was 700 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 700 lots week - on - week), coking coal was 100 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 100 lots week - on - week), coke was 2,070 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 40 lots week - on - week), ferrosilicon was 11,163 contracts (down 21 contracts day - on - day and down 1,042 contracts week - on - week), and ferromanganese was 44,876 contracts (down 960 contracts day - on - day and down 3,064 contracts week - on - week) [4]. Market Analysis - **Positive Factors**: In Q4, domestic mine开工率 is restricted by policies, coking coal supply elasticity is limited; the winter - storage scale in 2025 may be better than last year, supporting coal and coke prices; recent downstream restocking and reduced mine开工率 have improved coking coal inventory, and short - term coke prices may be strong due to supply tightness and cost support [4][6]. - **Negative Factors**: In the short term, steel inventory pressure is high, and if steel contradictions cannot be resolved, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal market [7]. Group 4: Price Data Coal and Coke Futures Price - **Coking Coal**: On October 24, 2025, the warehouse - receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,238 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 38 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the basis of the main contract was - 11.0 yuan/ton (up 10.0 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 31.5 yuan/ton week - on - week) [8]. - **Coke**: The warehouse - receipt cost of Rizhao Port wet - quenched coke was 1,637 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the basis of the main contract was - 120.3 yuan/ton (up 10.5 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 38.5 yuan/ton week - on - week) [8]. Coal and Coke Spot Price - **Coking Coal**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 1,127 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 76 yuan/ton week - on - week) [9]. - **Coke**: The ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1,330 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week), and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1,530 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week) [10]. Profit Data - **Coking Profit**: The immediate coking profit was - 44 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week) [10]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of Mongolian coal under long - term contracts was 405 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton day - on - day and up 87 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the import profit of Australian medium - volatile coal was 164 yuan/ton (up 122 yuan/ton day - on - day and up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week) [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 21, the JM2601 contract closed at 1177.0, down 3.49%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal was 1422, equivalent to 1202 on the futures market. The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The mine operating rate and coal washery operating rate rebounded. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and inventory is expected to rise seasonally. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On October 21, the J2601 contract closed at 1672.0, down 2.743%. The coke price increase was implemented on October 1. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The iron - water output was in high - level oscillation, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1177.00 yuan/ton, down 39.00; J主力合约收盘价 was 1672.00 yuan/ton, down 38.00. JM期货合约持仓量 was 828825.00 hands, down 22315.00; J期货合约持仓量 was 47556.00 hands, down 1245.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 3800.00 hands, up 346.00 [2]. - The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 73.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 145.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 200.00, unchanged; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 2050.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian 5 raw coal was 1051.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Jingtang Port Australian imported primary coking coal was 1710.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur primary coking coal was 1450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal from Inner Mongolia Wuhai was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washeries was 26.10 million tons per day, up 0.40; the refined coal inventory was 290.40 million tons per week, up 10.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.36%, up 0.01 [2]. - The monthly raw coal output was 41151.00 million tons, up 2101.30; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 196.10 million tons, up 12.20 [2]. Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 997.37 million tons per week, up 38.31; the total inventory of coke was 57.29 million tons per week, down 6.55. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 million tons per week, up 7.19; the coke inventory was 639.44 million tons per week, down 11.38 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.90 days per week, up 0.24; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.19 days per week, down 0.23. The monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the monthly output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.18%, up 0.05 [2]. - The monthly output of coke was 4256.00 million tons, down 3.70; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.25%, unchanged; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.31%, down 0.22 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of crude steel was 7349.00 million tons, down 387.86 [2]. Industry News - The central bank maintained the one - year and five - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. In September, the housing prices in 70 cities declined month - on - month, with all second - hand housing prices falling and 63 new housing prices falling. The decline in new housing prices in first - and second - tier cities widened, except for Beijing [2]. - From January to September, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%. In September, the total import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% [2].