Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,154.0, down 4.98%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1,422, equivalent to 1,202 on the futures market. With the continuous recovery of mine capacity utilization rate for three weeks and some coal types rebounding, the operating rate of independent coal washing plants continued to rise. The cumulative growth rate of imports has been declining for three consecutive months, and inventories have rebounded for two consecutive weeks with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 29, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,647.0, down 4.16%. After the second - round price cut of coke was implemented, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the current hot metal output is 2.4236 million tons, an increase of 0.0134 million tons, and the hot metal output is fluctuating at a high level. Coke inventories are higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1,154.00 yuan/ton, down 42.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1,647.00 yuan/ton, down 45.50 yuan. The JM futures contract open interest was 825,807.00 lots, down 80,954.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 50,959.00 lots, down 1,729.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 121,941.00 lots, up 15,608.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 5,112.00 lots, up 948.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 85.50 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the J5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 143.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 1,690.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1,040.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 151.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,750.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coke at Tianjin Port Grade - 1 was 1,570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 116.00 yuan/ton, up 42.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 18.00 yuan/ton, up 45.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 275,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.107 million tons, up 63,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.01%. The raw coal output was 39.0497 million tons, up 0.951 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4.274 million tons, up 0.713 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 194,000 tons, up 4,100 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 4.9685 million tons, down 0.1847 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 2.5726 million tons, down 0.0354 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9907 million tons, up 0.5866 million tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 0.6304 million tons, down 0.0337 million tons. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills was 7.9607 million tons, up 0.0573 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 steel mills was 6.6131 million tons, up 0.1664 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.89 days, up 0.15 days; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills was 11.66 days, up 0.24 days. The import volume of coking coal was 1.01622 million tons, up 0.0555 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.055 million tons, down 0.034 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 4.08938 million tons, up 0.025 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.43%, down 0.44%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton. The output of coke was 4.2597 million tons, up 0.0742 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation (National) - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.47%, up 0.47%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.88%, up 0.50%. The crude steel output was 7.73686 million tons, down 0.22896 million tons [2]. Industry News - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, at a high level. The US, the EU, and Brazil had the highest global economic and trade friction indices among 20 monitored countries (regions), and the US had the largest amount of global economic and trade friction measures for 13 consecutive months [2]. - The eight - department joint plan aims for the average annual growth of the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry to be around 5% and the average annual growth of the output of ten non - ferrous metals to be around 1.5% from 2025 - 2026. It also emphasizes resource exploration and the innovation of advanced materials [2]. - The draft resolution proposed by Russia and China to extend the sanctions exemption for Iran was not passed in the UN Security Council. The UK representative said that the UN will re - impose sanctions on Iran on Saturday, and Iran warned that the West should bear the consequences [2]. - The automobile trade - in subsidy policy in Jiangsu Province was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025 [2].

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/9/25 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1234.50 | +10.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1760.00 | +30.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 907095.00 | -17976.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 53441.00 | +822.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -115319.00 | +5854.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5802.00 ...

Core Points - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the price limit and margin levels for various futures contracts before and after the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2] Group 1: Adjustments Before the Holidays - From September 29, 2025, the price limit for iron ore futures will be adjusted to 11%, with a margin level of 13% [1] - The price limit for coking coal futures will also be set at 11%, with a margin level adjusted to 15% [1] - For soybean futures (both No. 1 and No. 2), the price limit will be 8%, and the margin level will be 9% [1] - Other commodities such as palm oil, eggs, and ethylene glycol will have a price limit of 9% and a margin level of 10% [1] - The price limit for corn starch and japonica rice will be set at 7%, with a margin level of 8% [1] - The price limit for live pigs will be 9%, with a margin level of 11% [1] - The price limit for pure benzene will be adjusted to 10%, with a margin level of 11% [1] - For fiberboard and plywood, the price limit will be 7%, with the margin level remaining unchanged [1] Group 2: Adjustments After the Holidays - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, with the price limits and margin levels for various futures contracts returning to pre-holiday standards [2] - This includes iron ore, coking coal, and various agricultural products, which will revert to their previous price limits and margin levels [2] Group 3: Comparison of Risk Control Parameters - A detailed comparison table outlines the changes in price limits and margin levels for each commodity before, during, and after the holiday period [3][4] - The adjustments reflect a strategic response to market conditions and risk management practices as per the Dalian Commodity Exchange's regulations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the JM2601 contract closed at 1224.5, up 1.24%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, converted to the futures price of 1146. The market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. [2] - On September 24, the J2601 contract closed at 1730.0, up 1.14%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 rose to 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 rose to 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan. [2] - JM期货合约持仓量 decreased to 925071.00 hands, down 13793.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 increased to 52619.00 hands, up 386.00 hands. [2] - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓 decreased to - 121173.00 hands, down 4020.00 hands; 焦炭前20名合约净持仓 increased to - 5586.00 hands, up 1.00 hand. [2] - JM5 - 1月合约价差 decreased to 87.50 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan; J5 - 1月合约价差 decreased to 141.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan. [2] - 焦煤仓单 remained at 0.00; 焦炭仓单 increased to 1690.00, up 150.00. [2] Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤 price rose to 1040.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; 唐山一级冶金焦 price remained at 1665.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货 price remained at 151.50 dollars/wet ton; 日照港准一级冶金焦 price remained at 1470.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤 price remained at 1630.00 yuan/ton; 天津港一级冶金焦 price remained at 1570.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 京唐港山西产主焦煤 price rose to 1680.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; 天津港准一级冶金焦 price remained at 1470.00 yuan/ton. [2] - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦 price remained at 1270.00 yuan/ton; J主力合约基差 decreased to - 65.00 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan. [2] - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价 remained at 1080.00 yuan/ton; JM主力合约基差 decreased to 45.50 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量 increased to 27.50 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; 314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存 increased to 310.70 million tons, up 6.30 million tons. [2] - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率 increased to 0.38%, up 0.01%; 原煤产量 increased to 39049.70 million tons, up 951.00 million tons. [2] - 煤及褐煤进口量 increased to 4274.00 million tons, up 713.00 million tons; 523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量 increased to 190.00 thousand tons, up 4.40 thousand tons. [2] - 16个港口进口焦煤库存 increased to 515.32 million tons, up 48.97 million tons; 焦炭18个港口库存 increased to 260.80 million tons, up 2.49 million tons. [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存 increased to 940.41 million tons, up 56.87 million tons; 独立焦企全样本焦炭库存 decreased to 66.41 million tons, down 1.43 million tons. [2] National Industry Situation - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存 decreased to 790.34 million tons, down 3.39 million tons; 全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存 increased to 644.67 million tons, up 11.38 million tons. [2] - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数 decreased to 12.74 days, down 0.07 days; 247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数 increased to 11.42 days, up 0.13 days. [2] - 炼焦煤进口量 increased to 1016.22 million tons, up 55.50 million tons; 焦炭及半焦炭出口量 decreased to 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 million tons. [2] - 炼焦煤产量 increased to 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; 独立焦企产能利用率 decreased to 75.87%, down 0.05%. [2] - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况 decreased to - 17.00 yuan/ton, down 52.00 yuan/ton; 焦炭产量 increased to 4259.70 million tons, up 74.20 million tons. [2] National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率 increased to 84.00%, up 0.15%; 247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 increased to 90.38%, up 0.18%. [2] - 粗钢产量 decreased to 7736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons. [2] Industry News - From October 1 to 7, 2025, the three major import ports (Ganqimao, Ceke, and Mandula) will be closed and resume normal clearance on October 8. The closure is expected to affect Mongolian coal imports by about 187.56 million tons. [2] - Guangdong issued an emergency notice to prepare for Typhoon "Huajiacha", implementing "five - stop" measures in affected areas. [2] - US President Trump made statements regarding Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. [2] - Russia may further restrict fuel exports and has extended the gasoline export ban until the end of September, with possible extension to October. [2]

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/9/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1217.50 | 0.00 | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1717.50 | -0.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 938864.00 | -11172.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 52233.00 | -264.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -117153.00 | +8204.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5587.00 | -205.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 96.50 | +7.50↑ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 143.50 | +10.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 1540.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 干其毛都蒙5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1203.5, down 2.11%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. With the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market sentiment declined and commodities corrected. Coking coal mines' capacity utilization has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal prices have rebounded, and the capacity utilization of independent coal washing plants has increased. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is at a neutral level. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile market [2]. - On September 18, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1709.0, down 1.10%. The second - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. In August, China's rebar production was 1541.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative production from January to August was 12867.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. In terms of fundamentals, the hot metal output this period was 240.55 million tons, an increase of 11.71 million tons. After the impact of steel mill production control for the parade faded, the hot metal output returned to the previous level, and the coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1203.50元/吨，环比下降29.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1709.00元/吨，环比下降25.50元。JM期货合约持仓量为943381.00手，环比下降33552.00手；J期货合约持仓量为52987.00手，环比下降131.00手。焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 121141.00手，环比下降445.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 4538.00手，环比增加69.00手。JM5 - 1月合约价差为92.00元/吨，环比增加12.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为139.00元/吨，环比增加10.00元。焦煤仓单为200.00张，环比下降400.00张；焦炭仓单为1550.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，环比上涨9.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比无变化。俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为149.00美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比无变化。京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1630.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比无变化。京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，环比上涨130.00元；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比无变化。山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1270.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1080.00元/吨，环比无变化。JM主力合约基差为66.50元/吨，环比增加29.50元；J主力合约基差为11.00元/吨，环比增加25.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤日产量为26.80万吨，环比增加1.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤周库存为304.40万吨，环比增加23.80万吨。314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比增加0.02个百分点；原煤月产量为39049.70万吨，环比增加951.00万吨。煤及褐煤月进口量为4274.00万吨，环比增加713.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.00万吨，环比增加4.40万吨。16个港口进口焦煤周库存为466.35万吨，环比增加1.58万吨；18个港口焦炭周库存为258.31万吨，环比下降2.45万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤周库存为883.54万吨，环比下降36.51万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭周库存为67.84万吨，环比增加1.33万吨。全国247家钢厂炼焦煤周库存为793.73万吨，环比下降2.03万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭周库存为633.29万吨，环比增加9.58万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.81天，环比下降0.28天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，环比下降0.42天 [2]. Industry Situation - 炼焦煤月进口量为962.30万吨，环比增加53.11万吨；焦炭及半焦炭月出口量为55.00万吨，环比下降34.00万吨。炼焦煤月产量为4089.38万吨，环比增加25.00万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为75.92%，环比增加2.78个百分点。独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为35.00元/吨，环比下降29.00元；焦炭月产量为4259.70万吨，环比增加74.20万吨 [2]. Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.85%，环比增加3.47个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为90.20%，环比增加4.43个百分点。粗钢月产量为7736.86万吨，环比下降228.96万吨 [2]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points at its Wednesday meeting, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month hiatus. The latest dot - plot predicts two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, one more than the June forecast [2]. - On September 16, the First Plenary Meeting of the Third - Session Council of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Tangshan, Hebei. The meeting reviewed and passed several proposals, including the Initiative on Maintaining Fair Competition Order and Jointly Resisting "Involution - style" Competition, the Proposal on Establishing a Coordination Working Group for Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition in the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry, and the Proposal on Establishing a Green - Low - Carbon Specialized Committee and an Artificial - Intelligence Specialized Committee of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association [2]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's rebar production in August was 1541.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative production from January to August was 12867.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1060 - 1260, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.86% and a historical percentile of 80.58% [3] - Coke: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1510 - 1750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.97% and a historical percentile of 61.85% [3] Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Hedging: For coke, when steel mills start a round of price cuts (2 - 3 rounds are generally expected), coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1750, 1800) and 50% at (1800 - 1850) [3] - Procurement Management: For coking coal, due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - over - limit inspections in the fourth quarter, coking plants worried about future price increases can long the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1050, 1100) and 50% at (1000, 1050) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 8525 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 33782 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, coke increased by 90 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 585 sheets, and ferromanganese decreased by 118 sheets [4] Market Analysis - Coking Coal: After the end of production - restriction disturbances, mines resumed production, a round of price cuts was fully implemented, and coke producers were pessimistic about the future, reducing coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance sheet of coking coal deteriorated marginally, and mines lowered spot prices. In the short term, the rebound space of coking coal is limited; in the long term, enterprises with raw - material procurement plans can consider long - position hedging in the far - month contracts [4] - Coke: Coke producers' immediate profits are good, and after the lifting of production restrictions, production is expected to quickly recover. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. Coke is restricted by price - cut expectations, and the market performance may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] Group 4: Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Basis - Coking Coal: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Tangshan Mongolian No. 5, Port Mongolian No. 5) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched, Jinzhong Wet - Quenched) also showed different changes [7] Futures Spread - Coking Coal: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05) changed on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The spreads between different contracts also changed [7] Other Ratios - The current盘面coking profit is - 87, the main mine - coke ratio is 0.488, the main screw - coke ratio is 1.897, and the main carbon - coal ratio is 1.429, all showing certain changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] Group 5: Spot Price and Profit Data Spot Price - Coking Coal: The spot prices of various coking coal varieties (e.g., Anze Low - Sulfur Main Coking Coal, Mongolian No. 5 Raw Coal at 288 Port) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [8] - Coke: The spot prices of various coke varieties (e.g., Jinzhong Quasi - First - Grade Wet - Quenched Coke, Lvliang Quasi - First - Grade Dry - Quenched Coke) also showed different changes [10] Profit Data - Coking Profit: The immediate coking profit is 127 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared with the previous day but a decrease compared with the previous week [10] - Import Profit: The import profits of different coal - importing sources (e.g., Mongolian coal, Australian coal, Russian coal) showed different changes [10] - Export Profit: The coke export profit is 364 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease compared with the previous week [10] Group 6: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors Market Outlook - In the short term, downstream steel inventories continue to accumulate, the blast - furnace link still has profits, and the supply of hot metal is resilient. The contradiction in the steel market is difficult to resolve in the short term, limiting the rebound space of coking coal. Coke may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] - In the long term, "anti - involution" is the focus in the second half of the year. Investors need to be vigilant about the impact of repeated macro - sentiment on the coal and coking market [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: The details of the "anti - involution" policy have not been announced, and there may be repeated macro - sentiment. Downstream coke producers have seasonal inventory - replenishment demand for coking coal before the National Day holiday [4][6] - Bearish Factors: The daily consumption of thermal coal has reached an inflection point, and the demand for thermal coal has weakened, dragging down the price of coking blending coal [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 10, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1117.0, down 1.93%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The coking coal market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On September 10, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1603.0, down 0.77%. The first - round price cut of coke on the spot market has been implemented. The coke market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1117.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1603.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - The trading volume of the JM futures contract was 885248.00 lots, down 17361.00 lots; the trading volume of the J futures contract was 52202.00 lots, down 743.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 contracts for coking coal was - 117717.00 lots, up 8713.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts for coke was - 4245.00 lots, down 164.00 lots [2]. - The spread between the JM5 - 1 contracts was 78.00 yuan/ton, down 3.50 yuan; the spread between the J5 - 1 contracts was 129.50 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - The number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 1300.00, down 200.00; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 1430.00, up 120.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 940.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 6.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 280.60 million tons, down 5.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.35%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4273.70 million tons, up 712.70 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60 million tons, down 2.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 464.77 million tons, up 9.36 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.76 million tons, down 7.90 million tons [2]. National Industrial Situation - The weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 795.76 million tons, down 16.09 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke in 247 sample steel mills across the country was 623.71 million tons, up 13.64 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 13.09 days, down 0.16 days; the available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills was 11.71 days, up 0.93 days [2]. - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.14%, down 0.22% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 64.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 4.23% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - The US government released preliminary benchmark revision data. In the year up to March this year, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US was revised down by 911,000, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000 [2]. - The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the high - quality completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the incremental value of China's manufacturing industry is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and the overall scale has remained the world's largest for 15 consecutive years [2]. - A JPMorgan trader said that "the day of the Fed's rate cut in September" would be the time when "the good news is exhausted". If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected at the meeting on September 17, this market - digested positive news may instead become a catalyst for investors to take profits and withdraw temporarily [2]. - Wang Qiuping, the spokesperson of the State Administration for Market Regulation, said that the administration has promptly interviewed major food - delivery platforms. The relevant platforms quickly responded, collectively voiced their commitment to abide by laws and regulations,杜绝 unfair competition, resist vicious subsidies, and promote the standardized and orderly development of the industry [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 2, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1112.5, down 0.80%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The macro - level shows that the proportion of electricity in China's terminal energy consumption has reached 30%, significantly higher than the world average, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory has increased, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On September 2, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1596.5, down 0.44%. The eighth round of coke price increase has not been implemented, and the first - round price cut has been proposed in some regions. From the macro - level, relevant departments will formulate a series of supporting documents around the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action". Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. With high pig iron production, the coal mine inventory pressure has disappeared, and the total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 55 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1112.50 yuan/ton, down 6.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1596.50 yuan/ton, up 2.00 [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 900128.00 lots, down 20101.00; the J futures contract position was 51244.00 lots, down 1062.00 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 130501.00 lots, up 4848.00; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 4520.00 lots, up 607.00 [2]. - The JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 47.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 92.50 yuan/ton, down 4.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 900.00, up 600.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 1060.00, up 90.00 [2]. - The JM main contract basis was 187.50 yuan/ton, up 6.00; the J main contract basis was 178.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 916.00 yuan/ton, down 64.00; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported main coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.00 million tons, up 0.30; the refined coal inventory was 289.50 million tons, down 5.30 [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60, down 2.60 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 455.41 million tons, up 4.96; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.66 million tons, up 0.04 [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 961.27 million tons, down 5.14; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.31 million tons, up 0.94 [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 811.85 million tons, down 0.46; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 610.07 million tons, up 0.48 [2]. - The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 13.25 days, up 0.18; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 10.78 days, up 0.02 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 [2]. - The output of coking coal was 3880.62 million tons, down 183.76; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.36%, down 1.06 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 55.00 yuan/ton, up 32.00; the output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.00%, down 0.27 [2]. - The crude steel output was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - New Zealand will relax the ban on foreigners buying houses, allowing wealthy investment immigrants with "golden visas" to buy luxury houses worth at least 5 million New Zealand dollars [2]. - The Central Rural Work Leading Group Office will strengthen the comprehensive management of high bride prices in rural areas [2]. - Relevant departments will formulate a series of supporting documents around the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action" [2]. - French business leaders warn that France faces a real "recession risk" [2].

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/9/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1118.50 | -32.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1594.50 | -48.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 920229.00 | +10170.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 52306.00 | +3566.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -135349.00 | -1871.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5127.00 | +167.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 49.00 | +7.00↑ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 96.50 | +6.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 300.00 | +300.00↑ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 970.00 | +60.00↑ | | | ...