焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/8/25 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 本报告版权仅为我公司所有 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1215.50 | +53.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1736.00 | +57.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 918162.00 | +19893.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49006.00 | +1277.00↑ | ...

焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/8/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1147.00 | -15.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1664.00 | -14.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 899361.00 | +450.00↑ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 47951.00 | -1572.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -112662.00 | -1543.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5111.00 | +165.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 117.00 | -1.00↓ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 59.00 | +14.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | 0.00 | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 820.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On August 11, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1256.0, up 2.99%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The trade - weighted average tariff rate of the US on all global products rose to 20.11% as of August 7. The mine - end inventory generally decreased, the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate declined for three consecutive months, and the total inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and upward - trending operation [2]. - On August 11, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1681.0, up 1.97%. The fifth round of price increase was implemented in the spot market. China's CPI was flat year - on - year in July, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. The competition order in industries such as coal and photovoltaic was optimized, reducing price drag. The raw material inventory rebounded, the pig iron output was 242.23 tons this period, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The pig iron output was at a high level, and the coal mine inventory was no longer under pressure, with inventory transferring downstream. The total coking coal inventory increased for four consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 16 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and upward - trending operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1256.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1681.00 yuan/ton, up 27.50 yuan. The JM futures contract positions were 942082.00 lots, up 26238.00 lots; the J futures contract positions were 53077.00 lots, up 1123.00 lots. The net positions of the top 20 JM contracts were - 97157.00 lots, down 2440.00 lots; the net positions of the top 20 J contracts were - 7122.00 lots, up 338.00 lots. The spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 149.50 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 78.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 100.00, up 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 800.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 973.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The forward spot price of Russian prime coking coal (CFR) was 145.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1550.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 64.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was - 16.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%. The raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons. The import volume of coal and lignite was 3560.90 million tons, up 256.90 million tons. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.30 tons, down 5.30 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 463.05 million tons, down 30.89 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 273.55 million tons, up 2.65 million tons [2]. National Industry Situation - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 million tons, up 4.87 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 619.28 million tons, down 7.41 million tons. The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.99 days, up 0.12 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 10.91 days, down 0.26 days. The import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons. The coking coal output was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.03%, up 0.34%. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 16.00 yuan/ton, up 29.00 yuan/ton. The coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. Industry News - In July, China's CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI fell 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and fell 3.6% year - on - year, the same as last month. As of the 7th, the US trade - weighted average tariff rate on all global products rose to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year. US President Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Putin in Alaska on the 15th to discuss the Ukraine crisis. Beijing further optimized the housing purchase restriction policy, and eligible families are no longer restricted in the number of housing purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road. In the past year, at least a dozen provinces and cities have issued incentive policy documents, or planned to set up or have set up state - owned asset M&A funds, which have transformed from "fund providers" to "industry integrators" [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 5, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1182.0, up 6.92%, hitting the daily limit during the session, and two far - month contracts closed at the daily limit. The market sentiment fluctuates due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, the overall mine - end inventory is decreasing, the clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [2]. - On August 5, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1634.5, up 3.16%, and the fifth round of price increase in the spot market was implemented. Affected by high - temperature factors, the power consumption load of the State Grid hit a new high for the third time on August 4. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded, the current hot metal output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons, the hot metal output is at a high level, the coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is shifting downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1182.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1634.50 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 804,920.00 lots, up 8,071.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 52,738.00 lots, up 2,384.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 107,217.00 lots, down 7,376.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 7,202.00 lots, down 3.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread: 147.00 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread: 73.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 937.00 yuan/ton, up 57.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main contract basis: 218.00 yuan/ton, down 41.00 yuan; J main contract basis: 30.50 yuan/ton, up 35.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.771 billion tons, down 154,300 tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 1.6639 billion tons, down 92,300 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 61.51%, down 0.80 percentage points; raw coal output (monthly): 42.1074 billion tons, up 1.779 billion tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly): 3.304 billion tons, down 300,000 tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 193,600 tons, down 1,200 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 4.9394 billion tons, down 181,000 tons; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 2.709 billion tons, up 205,700 tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 9.9273 billion tons, up 73,500 tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 736,200 tons, down 65,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 8.0379 billion tons, up 42,800 tons; coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 6.2669 billion tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.87 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 steel mills (weekly): 11.17 days, down 0.28 days [2]. - Coking coal imports (monthly): 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly): 510,000 tons, down 170,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 4.06438 billion tons, down 5,890 tons; coke output (monthly): 4.1703 billion tons, down 67,300 tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 73.69%, up 0.24 percentage points; profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8.3184 billion tons, down 336,100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The peak - season market of the container shipping market has not arrived, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has declined for 8 consecutive weeks. As of August 1, the SCFI index dropped 41.85 points to 1550.74 points, a weekly decline of 2.62% [2]. - Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, causing Indian ETFs listed in the US to turn down. The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. Switzerland is facing a "negotiation race" to reduce tariffs by 39%, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy [2]. - Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in three to four days [2]. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will soon issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On August 4th, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1141.0, up 2.33%. With several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory decreased overall, clean coal inventory shifted downstream, import cumulative growth declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On August 4th, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1615.5, down 0.15%. The fifth round of price increase was postponed. With no obvious incremental policy expectations and the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, iron - water production decreased, and coking coal total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1141.00 yuan/ton, up 48.50; J main - contract closing price was 1615.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00. JM futures - contract holding volume was 796849.00 lots, up 32505.00; J futures - contract holding volume was 50354.00 lots, down 1172.00. The net holding volume of the top 20 coking - coal contracts was - 99841.00 lots, up 6368.00; that of coke was - 7199.00 lots, down 318.00. JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 135.50 yuan/ton, up 28.00; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 60.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50. Coking - coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 880.00 yuan/ton; Russian main - coking coal forward spot was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton; Jingtang Port Australian imported main - coking coal was 1430.00 yuan/ton; Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main - coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton; Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main - coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking - coal ex - factory price was 1100.00 yuan/ton. Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton; Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton. JM main - contract basis was 259.00 yuan/ton, down 48.50; J main - contract basis was - 5.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw - coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43; the clean - coal inventory was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80. Raw - coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00. Coal and lignite imports were 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00. The daily average raw - coal output of 523 coking - coal mines was 193.60, down 1.20. The imported coking - coal inventory of 16 ports was 493.94 million tons, down 18.10; the coke inventory of 18 ports was 270.90 million tons, up 20.57 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total coking - coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 992.73 million tons, up 7.35; the total inventory of 247 steel mills was 803.79 million tons, up 4.28. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.12; for 247 steel mills, the available days of coke were 11.17 days, down 0.28. Coking - coal imports were 910.84 million tons, up 172.10; coke and semi - coke exports were 51.00 million tons, down 17.00. Coking - coal production was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.69%, up 0.24. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00. Coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56. Crude - steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 1st, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that 6.9 billion yuan of consumer goods trade - in funds would be issued in October, completing the 30 - billion - yuan annual plan. It also planned to regulate enterprise disorderly competition, manage key - industry production capacity, and clean up market - access barriers. The 80 - billion - yuan "two - important" construction project list had been fully issued, and 73.5 billion yuan of central budgetary investment had been basically issued. Trump 2.0 threatened Russia militarily and deployed two US nuclear submarines [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 31, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1045.5, down 7.97% and hitting the daily limit. After several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory generally decreased, clean coal inventory shifted from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, import cumulative growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 31, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1601.0, down 4.93%. The spot market started the fifth round of price increase. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, there was no obvious incremental policy expectation, and with the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, this period's hot - metal output was 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons, with high hot - metal production and no pressure on coal - mine inventory, and the total coking coal inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 54 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1045.50 yuan/ton, down 71.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1601.00 yuan/ton, down 75.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 783278.00 lots, down 10291.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 50815.00 lots, down 241.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 108407.00 lots, down 14621.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6493.00 lots, up 874.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 89.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 53.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 9.00 yuan/ton, up 75.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 354.50 yuan/ton, up 71.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.60 million tons, down 1.20 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% [2]. - Ton - coke profit of independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.78%, down 0.14% [2]. - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [2]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korea, a 40% additional tariff on Brazil (total tariff reaching 50%), and a 25% tariff on goods from India [2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will grow strongly, with an expected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the key policy rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time and said the risk of a serious escalation of the global trade war has weakened [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 29, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 6110, up 3.52%. The Ningxia silicon - iron spot price was reported at 5750, up 80 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will speed up reform, strengthen governance of key industries, and force out backward production capacity. With low - level operation of开工, falling cost of Ningxia semi - coke, and weak overall steel demand expectation, the ferro - alloy production profit is negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as oscillating [2] - On July 29, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 6212, up 2.78%. The Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon spot price was reported at 5900, up 100 yuan/ton. Manganese - based leading enterprises held a seminar to promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and supply may decline. The manufacturer's operating rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, with moderately high inventory. The imported manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end increased by 210,000 tons, and the downstream molten iron output is high. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 90 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is - 140 yuan/ton. This month, the steel mill's procurement price has rebounded compared with the tender price. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as oscillating strongly [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1120.50 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1633.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 yuan [2] - JM futures contract open interest was 766164.00 lots, down 4719.00 lots; J futures contract open interest was 51893.00 lots, down 464.00 lots [2] - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts was - 88934.00 lots, down 1951.00 lots; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts was - 4147.00 lots, up 1177.00 lots [2] - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 94.00 yuan/ton, up 14.50 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 57.50 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan [2] - JM warehouse receipts were 0.00; J warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal price was 1013.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1555.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Russian prime coking coal forward spot price (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, down 3.50 US dollars; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal price was 1420.00 yuan/ton, down 180.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal price was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke price was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal price was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 78.00 yuan/ton, down 24.50 yuan [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 279.50 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110 coal washing plants' raw coal inventory was 292.53 million tons, down 6.16 million tons; 110 coal washing plants' clean coal inventory was 175.61 million tons, down 15.93 million tons [2] - 110 coal washing plants' operating rate was 62.31%, down 0.54 percentage points; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2] - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; 523 coking coal mines' average daily raw coal output was 194.70 million tons, up 1.90 million tons [2] - 16 ports' imported coking coal inventory was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; 18 ports' coke inventory was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2] - Independent coking enterprises' total coking coal inventory was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; independent coking enterprises' coke inventory was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2] - 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; 247 steel mills' coke inventory was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2] - Independent coking enterprises' available days of coking coal were 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; 247 steel mills' available days of coke were 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2] - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2] - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, up 0.44 percentage points [2] - Independent coking plants' profit per ton of coke was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2] 3.4 National Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; 247 steel mills' blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2] - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - On July 28, the National Defense General Headquarters upgraded the flood - control level III emergency response for Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. Affected by rainfall, all suburban railways in Beijing were suspended on July 29 [2] - On July 28, the Inaugural Meeting of the Hebei Iron and Steel Industry Environmental Performance Specialized Committee was held in Shijiazhuang. Currently, 56 in - production iron and steel enterprises in Hebei have achieved full Class A environmental performance creation, and the committee aims to strengthen industry self - discipline [2] - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative, opposing low - price disorderly competition and below - cost dumping [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will further deepen reforms, promote the implementation of reform tasks, and strengthen the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 17, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 918.5, up 1.55%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal in the spot market was reported at 785. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improving coal supply quality, and promoting market balance. The mine - end inventory decreased, market confidence improved, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. The import cumulative growth rate decreased, and the total inventory was neutral. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. - On July 17, the closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1519.0, up 1.00%. Some regions proposed a price increase. Jiangsu Province planned to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking production to over 20% in 2025 and reduce coal consumption by about 5% compared to 2020. The raw material supply improved, iron - water production declined slightly from a high level, most coal mines had no inventory pressure and were willing to hold prices. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 63 yuan/ton. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 918.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50; the closing price of the J main contract was 1519.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 850792.00 lots, up 5330.00; the J futures contract open interest was 54981.00 lots, down 196.00 [2]. - The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 62188.00 lots, up 15289.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 3702.00 lots, up 137.00 [2]. - The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 49.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 1600.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 760.00, up 670.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 785.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1410.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was - 129.00 yuan/ton, down 24.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 960.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 11.50 yuan/ton, down 21.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08; the clean coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3303.70 million tons, down 300.30; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90, up 1.10 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.79 million tons, up 29.08; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 255.68 million tons, up 13.66 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 892.35 million tons, up 44.17; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 93.08 million tons, down 9.02 [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons, down 6.67; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.80 million tons, up 0.31 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.48 days, down 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.64 days, up 0.12 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 68.00 [2]. - The production of coking coal was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, down 0.30 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 63.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.87%, down 0.40 [2]. - The crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Jiangsu Province issued the 2025 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan, aiming for short - process steelmaking production to account for over 20% in 2025 and a 5% reduction in coal consumption compared to 2020 [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that more central banks were buying gold directly from local gold mines with local currencies [2]. - As of June 30, the installed power capacity in Zhejiang Province reached 165 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for over 50%, and photovoltaic installed capacity becoming the largest power source, up 53.4% year - on - year [2]. - The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro seven - year budget, with 4505 billion euros for the EU Competitiveness Fund [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views - On July 15, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 911.5, down 0.38%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 780 in the spot market. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, strengthened industry self - discipline, and promoted market balance. The mine - end inventory generally decreased, market confidence improved, and the clean coal inventory continued to transfer from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate declined, and the total inventory was neutral. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. - On July 15, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1514.0, down 0.85%. Some regions proposed a price increase in the spot market. The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the domestic steel production has reached its peak, and the future domestic crude steel consumption is expected to remain at 8 - 9 billion tons. The industry shows an obvious trend of reducing production, but the industrial concentration is increasing. Fundamentally, the raw material supply is gradually improving, the hot metal output has slightly declined from the high level, most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and the coal mines have a strong willingness to support prices. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 63 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为911.50元/吨，环比下跌8.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1514.00元/吨，环比下跌11.00元 [2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为814,923.00手，环比增加7,161.00手；J期货合约持仓量为54,685.00手，环比减少1,074.00手 [2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 60,314.00手，环比增加1,256.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 3,642.00手，环比增加392.00手 [2]。 - JM1 - 9月合约价差为50.50元/吨，环比增加7.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为46.50元/吨，环比增加2.50元 [2]。 - 焦煤仓单为1,600.00张，环比增加200.00张；焦炭仓单为90.00张，环比无变化 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为780.00元/吨，环比上涨23.00元；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1,390.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为118.00美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,330.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,320.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,350.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为930.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为960.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - JM主力合约基差为18.50元/吨，环比增加8.50元；J主力合约基差为 - 124.00元/吨，环比增加11.00元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为300.77万吨，环比减少11.40万吨；精煤库存为197.07万吨，环比减少17.91万吨 [2]。 - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.33%，环比增加2.61个百分点；原煤产量为42,107.00万吨，环比增加1,778.60万吨 [2]。 - 煤及褐煤进口量为3,303.70万吨，环比减少300.30万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比增加3.80万吨 [2]。 - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.79万吨，环比增加29.08万吨；18个港口焦炭库存为255.68万吨，环比增加13.66万吨 [2]。 3.4 National Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为892.35万吨，环比增加44.17万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为93.08万吨，环比减少9.02万吨 [2]。 - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.93万吨，环比减少6.67万吨；247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为637.80万吨，环比增加0.31万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.48天，环比减少0.03天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.64天，环比增加0.12天 [2]。 - 炼焦煤进口量为738.69万吨，环比减少150.65万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为0.00万吨，环比减少68.00万吨 [2]。 - 炼焦煤产量为4,070.27万吨，环比增加144.11万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.87%，环比减少0.30个百分点 [2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 63.00元/吨，环比减少11.00元；焦炭产量为4,170.00万吨，环比减少67.60万吨 [2]。 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.13%，环比减少0.31个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.87%，环比减少0.40个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,318.00万吨，环比减少336.50万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 特朗普称若俄罗斯50天内无法达成俄乌冲突协议将对俄征收100%二级关税，美国官员称还会对购买俄油国家实施二级制裁 [2]。 - 中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年煤炭经济运行分析座谈会，强调守牢安全稳定底线，科学把握生产节奏，提升煤炭供给质量，加强行业自律，整治内卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡 [2]。 - 欧盟委员会委员表示若美欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值约840亿美元的美国进口商品征收额外反制关税 [2]。 - 泰国财政部考虑对更多美国进口产品实行零关税 [2]。 - 美国商务部对无人机和多晶硅进口启动232调查 [2]。

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 843.50 | +8.50↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1424.50 | +2.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 778353.00 | +2875.00↑ | J期货合约持 ...