明年关注低位补涨 20251221 摘要 预计 2026 年非金融企业盈利增速在 5%-10%区间，低于市场普遍预期， 主要受宏观经济指标如 GDP、CPI 和 PPI 影响，宏观情景推演法显示增 速约为 4.8%。 自下而上分析显示，卖方对核心公司盈利预期汇总后增速约为 22%，但 历史经验表明通常高估 10-20 个百分点，实际增速可能为个位数。 分板块看，周期、医药和科技板块增速预计提升，TMT 板块按今年斜率 外推明年可达 32%，制造业和消费板块预测谨慎，中性情景下整体增速 约为 9.9%。 历史数据显示，各行业在盈利周期上行时呈现类似斜率，基于此规律对 未来各行业进行线性外推预测，消费增长预计负两位数，制造业增速放 缓至 10%左右。 周期性行业和制造业利润占比达六成，消费占两成，科技板块不到 20%，尽管 TMT 增速高，但利润占比较低，对整体业绩拉动较弱。 股价走势与利润走势基本同步，盈利顶点通常领先市场顶点 1~2 个月， 上半年市场问题不大，利润增速改善的行业比例可作为领先指标。 2025 年估值分化明显，高估值板块进一步拔高难度大，明年投资策略 应更均衡，中低位板块或有补涨机会，关注低估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has shown fluctuations, with a significant decline in profit margins, indicating a challenging economic environment and potential investment risks [1][9][10]. Revenue Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, with May's month-on-month growth dropping to 0.8% [7][8][10]. - The revenue growth experienced a rebound in January and February, followed by a decline in April and May, reflecting a typical economic nominal growth pattern with insufficient growth momentum [1][7]. Profit Margins - The profit margin change was more pronounced than revenue, with May's profit declining by 9.1%, the lowest since October of the previous year, leading to a cumulative profit decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9][10][11]. - The profit growth rate turned negative again in May after briefly turning positive in March, indicating a volatile profit environment [9][10]. Industry Performance Fastest Growing Industries - Equipment manufacturing, particularly in transportation equipment (56%), general equipment (10.6%), and specialized equipment (7.1%), showed significant profit growth [15][16]. - The aerospace sector, including aircraft manufacturing (120.7%) and related equipment, also reported high profit growth rates [15][16]. - Non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries saw profit increases of 41.7% and 9.8%, respectively, likely due to rising upstream prices and demand from emerging industries [15][16]. Slowest Growing Industries - The upstream mining sector, textile and apparel industries, and durable consumer goods (automobiles and furniture) experienced the lowest profit growth rates, with coal profits down by 50.6% and automotive profits down by 11.9% [19][20]. - The decline in profits for these sectors is attributed to falling commodity prices and weak domestic demand [19][20]. Profit Structure - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 33.4% of incremental profits, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [20][24]. - Public utilities and raw materials industries also saw profit shares increase, indicating a shift in profit distribution within the industrial sector [20][24]. Inventory and Debt - As of the end of May, nominal inventory showed a slight decrease, while actual inventory rose by 6.8%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [28]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises was 57.7%, with a slight increase year-on-year, reflecting a cautious approach to capital expenditure amid weak demand [30].