今日关注 1月9日召开的国务院常务会议部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策，包括优化实施服务业经营主体 贷款、个人消费贷款贴息政策；实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策，设立民间投资专项担保计划，建立支持 民营企业债券风险分担机制，优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策。会议还研究推行常住地提供基本公 共服务有关工作。 宏观经济 1、国家统计局：2025年12月，CPI同比上涨0.8%，环比上涨0.2%。其中，食品价格上涨0.3%；同比来 看，猪肉价格下降14.6%，影响CPI下降约0.20个百分点；PPI同比下降1.9%，环比上涨0.2%。 2、财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告。自4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增 值税出口退税。自4月1日起至12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1 日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 3、近日，国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会办公室依据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，对外卖平台拼 补贴、拼价格、控流量等突出问题，决定开展调查、评估。 4、工信部等五部门印发《工业绿色微电网建设与应用指南（2026-2030年）》。工业企业和园区新建太 阳能、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to improve, with significant growth in both ODM and proprietary brand segments, leading to a notable recovery in overall financial results [2][12]. - The revenue and profit outlook has been adjusted, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.90, 1.32, and 1.73 yuan respectively, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [12]. - The company has established a balanced business structure focusing on ODM while also developing its proprietary brand, achieving profitability in its offline business [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,067 million yuan in 2023 to 1,967 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 13.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 77 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 174 million yuan in 2027 [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 29.6% in 2025 [12]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 3,084 million yuan, with a share price range over the past 52 weeks between 19.67 and 44.97 yuan [6]. - The company has established strong relationships with clients in various international markets, with overseas revenue accounting for 53.26% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [12]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 6.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -7.8% in 2024 to 13.6% in 2027 [4][12].

今日上午，科创芯片、证券以及有色ETF交投相对活跃，半日成交金额均超过10亿元；跨境ETF方面，香港证券ETF（513090）半日成交金额达到52.38亿 元，交易量较大。 从投资逻辑来看，随着全球算力供应紧张态势缓解及模型训练/推理成本快速下降，AI产业发展重心正从"模型能力竞赛"转向"应用效率与规模竞争"，一个 以用户和场景为中心的新一代AI应用入口生态将加速整合与重塑。未来1-2年将是市场格局分化与整合的关键时期，其竞争的本质是"生态控制力"之争。 点评：科创AIETF富国（589380）今日上午上涨2.06%，其份额为1.34亿份，半日成交金额为912.29万元。该ETF追踪的是上证科创板人工智能指数，追踪该 指数的ETF还包括科创人工智能ETF汇添富（589560）、科创AIETF（588790）等。其中，科创AIETF（588790）份额高达73.87亿份，半日成交金额达2.94 亿元。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅 (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 588200 | 科创芯片ETF | 2.358 | 1.2 | | 512400 | 有色金属ETF ...

近日，华创证券研究所所长、大消费组组长董广阳在雪球嘉年华上，针对消费行业及白酒板块分享了最 新研判。 与但斌对白酒短期承压、人口结构等变量表示谨慎的观点不同，董广阳从消费基本面、行业周期与龙头 价值等角度，提出了其对白酒板块的观察与侧重。 董广阳团队曾多次上榜新财富最佳分析师，在消费行业里深耕多年，我们较为认可他们对于消费板块的 观点。本文，研究院梳理了董广阳发言的关键要点，为投资者提供另一重视角的思考。 以下为概括内容： 一、消费行业有自身周期规律 董广阳首先对于当下消费行业，进行了总体性判断。 董广阳提及，他与很多投资者交流，大家担忧中国是否会持续类通缩、消费是否还有机会。 对此，他想说的是，不管是否通缩、经济环境如何，消费行业有自身的发展周期规律，这与行业技术发 展特点、时代技术背景相关，不会因经济增长快慢而改变。 中国过去三四十年凭借体制优势和后发优势，完成了西方工业国家200年的现代化、工业化进程。 回顾过去，每十年就是一套新模式、新玩法、新玩家，少部分企业穿越周期并实现新增长，大部分企业 则被洗牌。穿越的企业主要是白酒头部企业以及其他消费品领域的少数头部企业。 对此，董广阳把中国消费市场发展阶段做 ...

Core Viewpoints - The traditional consumption market in China is expected to recover, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [9] - The consumption market is showing significant differentiation, moving away from the homogenized phase of mass production to a stage where consumers choose products based on their individual characteristics [44] - The rise of AI is ushering in an era of super consumers and super entrepreneurs, where consumer power is increasingly shifting [38][46] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry is currently valued at a reasonable low level, with overall valuations being moderate to undervalued [70][78] - The consumption industry has entered a new adjustment period post-2022, driven by the AI wave, leading to the emergence of super consumers and super entrepreneurs [4][40] - The industry is experiencing a cyclical pattern that is closely related to its own development characteristics and is not significantly affected by economic growth rates [24][51] Investment Opportunities - Companies that can adapt to new consumer demands and innovate will find growth opportunities, particularly in new product varieties and business models [16][19] - Diversification strategies, such as concentric diversification, can help companies navigate challenging market conditions [19][20] - International expansion is becoming a clear strategy for many companies, with a focus on markets like Southeast Asia and Africa [22][73] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer power means that products must be designed around consumer needs, leading to a reversal of traditional business logic [75] - The demand for personalized and segmented products is increasing, reflecting a more individualized consumer landscape [44][76] Long-term Value - The core value of consumer goods lies in their long-term, stable, and sustainable performance rather than short-term fluctuations [78][80] - Companies with strong business models and the ability to adapt to market changes will continue to thrive, even in challenging economic conditions [53][59]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.20 情绪消费驱动，"犒赏经济"正当时 [Table_Industry] 耐用消费品 文创产品行业跟踪 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： "犒赏经济"崛起预示着新消费范式的出现。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 耐用消费品《行业监管趋严，不合规产能有望加 速出清》2025.12.19 耐用消费品《2026 年有望延续产品大年，国内供 应链受益》2025.12.15 耐用消费品《英美烟草：Glo Hilo 反馈亮眼，新 型烟草加速扩张》2025.12.12 耐用消费品《业绩分化加速，龙头韧性凸显》 2025.11.03 耐用消费品《家具板块：底部确立，后势可期》 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth while facing some pressure on profitability due to rising internal costs. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 3.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 349 million yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year [11]. - The company is deepening its international presence, with overseas market revenue reaching 1.810 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 75.9% of total revenue. This includes significant growth in channel revenue from partnerships with major retailers [11]. - The gross margin remains stable, with a net profit margin of 9.4% and a gross margin of 26.2% for the first three quarters of 2025, showing slight year-on-year changes [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4.334 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.377 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 425 million yuan in 2023 to 630 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 14.2% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.95 yuan in 2023 to 1.41 yuan in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 10.68 to 14.66 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.751 billion yuan [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.54 in 2023 to 9.13 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [4]. Strategic Outlook - The company is accelerating its global manufacturing capabilities to mitigate external uncertainties, enhancing its competitive position in the market [2]. - The expansion strategy includes building overseas bases in Thailand and Mexico, with the Thai base already achieving full-category layout and expansion plans underway [11].

来源：新浪基金 近期，中央经济工作会议重磅定调，有机构分析称，新消费成长或率先受益。与此同时，中证港股通消 费主题指数（931454.CSI）于12月15日正式实施修订，成分股更纯粹、更聚焦在港股上市的消费板块中 细分龙头企业，或为投资者捕捉中国消费结构变迁中的成长红利，提供更精准、更有效的指数化投资工 具。（资料参考：国金证券《中央经济会议对消费影响解读：新消费成长率先受益 政策助力增长型红 利机会显现》，2025.12.14；中证指数有限公司《中证港股通消费主题指数编制方案》） 从政策方向看，中央经济工作会议将"大力提振消费，提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"作为首要任 务，凸显消费在稳增长中的首要作用和意义。机构分析指出，后续围绕消费的结构性政策或有望从以下 两方面重点发力： 一是通过财政补贴、税收优惠、社保提升等政策，增强居民消费能力，如提高退休人员养老金等，银 发消费或将迎来黄金发展期。 二是推动消费结构性升级，政策将鼓励服务消费、数字消费、绿色消费等新兴业态发展，支持文旅、 养老、体育等服务领域开放合作创新，服务类消费迎来重点支持和发展。 （资料参考：国金证券《中央经济会议对消费影响解读：新消费成 ...

Group 1 - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 39,444 billion yuan, growing by 2.5% [1] - From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 456,067 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales were 411,637 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [1] - The recent decline in the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales is attributed to a high base from the previous year and the early release of some consumer demand due to ongoing policies promoting the replacement of old goods [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government has allocated 500 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for "two new" initiatives in 2025, with 200 billion yuan for large-scale equipment updates and 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to November, the replacement of consumer goods generated over 25,000 billion yuan in sales, benefiting over 360 million people and playing a significant role in boosting consumption [1] Group 3 - The expansion of consumption is a long-term strategy that requires joint efforts from both supply and demand sides, particularly focusing on the 400 million middle-income group with a demand for upgraded consumption [2] - There is a need to enhance the quality and innovation of service supply, as the middle and high-income groups are increasingly shifting towards service consumption [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of implementing special actions to boost consumption and developing plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [2] Group 4 - The real estate market has been adjusting, and the central economic work conference proposed high-quality urban renewal, focusing on renovation rather than large-scale demolition, which can create more jobs and establish a sustainable investment model [2] - Creating more service industry jobs is a long-term strategy, as the productive service industry is knowledge and talent-intensive, requiring further development [3] - To make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth, it is essential to address the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, promoting internal growth through reforms [3]

12月10日至11日举行的中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作指明了方向。会议提出的"稳中求进"总基调 以及一系列宏观政策与产业部署，成为资本市场关注的焦点。多位基金经理表示，政策组合拳为资本市 场提供了有利的基本面、资金面和情绪面支撑。机构预计，会议释放的关键信号将催生消费升级、科技 创新及基建与统一大市场配套等领域的结构性投资机遇。 政策组合拳护航资本市场 ● 本报记者张凌之 一是消费升级领域。某大型基金公司研究人士认为，"坚持内需主导"居于2026年经济工作任务的首位， 大消费板块料获得持续助力。上述资深基金经理表示："耐用消费品及智能消费，包括智能家居、智能 网联汽车、AI消费电子等品类将受益于以旧换新政策扩围；同时，服务消费方面，养老康养、文旅休 闲、医疗健康等赛道，有望获得财政补贴和政策支持。" 二是新质生产力相关领域。某大型基金公司研究人士表示，"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"的表 述凸显了科技突破的紧迫性，以人工智能等为代表的科技创新板块有望成为长期投资主线。上述资深基 金经理详细列举了新质生产力相关领域，包括以AI应用、半导体、商业航天为代表的硬核科技，以新 能源汽车、高端装备、储能为代 ...