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存款利率加速进入“1.0”时代 3年期5年期倒挂剪刀差走扩
Core Viewpoint - The average deposit rates for various terms are declining, with a notable increase in the spread between short-term and long-term deposit rates, indicating a shift in banks' strategies to optimize their liability structures [1][4][9]. Deposit Rate Trends - As of March 2025, the average rates for different deposit terms are as follows: 3-month at 1.249%, 6-month at 1.449%, 1-year at 1.566%, 2-year at 1.666%, 3-year at 2.042%, and 5-year at 1.883% [1][3]. - The month-on-month changes show slight increases in short-term rates (3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year) while the 3-year and 5-year rates have decreased significantly [4]. Long-term vs Short-term Deposits - There is a strong willingness among depositors to store long-term deposits, leading banks to lower long-term deposit rates to manage the risks associated with high-interest liabilities [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that banks are adopting a "short-term pressure long-term" strategy to guide customers towards shorter-term deposits, reflecting a proactive approach to managing interest rate risks [4][5]. Large Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The average rates for large CDs have also shown a downward trend, with the 3-month rate at 1.386%, 6-month at 1.610%, 1-year at 1.719%, 2-year at 1.867%, 3-year at 2.197%, and 5-year at 2.038% [5][6]. - The decline in large CD rates has led to a situation where the rates for 3-year and 5-year CDs are inverted, indicating a market shift [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The narrowing interest rate spread between large CDs and regular term deposits has resulted in decreased sales of large CDs, as customers find little incentive to choose them over regular deposits [7]. - Factors contributing to the decline in large CD rates include the need for banks to optimize their liability structures, the central bank's rate cuts, and a relatively relaxed market liquidity environment [7]. Structural Deposit Trends - The average term for structured deposits is 89 days, with a slight increase in the average expected yield to 1.96% [8]. - Different types of banks show varying average terms and yields for structured deposits, with state-owned banks having the shortest average term [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that deposit rates are likely to continue declining due to multiple factors, including market expectations, policy rate adjustments, and the need for banks to control funding costs [9].