2025 年 12 月 10 日 其 他 研 究 开源晨会 1210 ——晨会纪要 晨 会 纪 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | --- | wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 总量视角 【宏观经济】出口平缓回落趋势未发生改变——宏观经济点评-20251208 【宏观经济】提质增效，科技突围——12 月政治局会议学习——宏观经济点评 -20251208 【宏观经济】美联储主席换届交易指南——宏观经济专题-20251208 【策略】机构关注度环比回升：家用电器、建筑材料、计算机——机构调研周跟 踪-20251209 【策略】当春季躁动遇上估值慢牛——投资策略专题-20251208 行业公司 【通信】国内 AIDC 需求或加速回暖——行业点评报告-20251209 【通信】"H200 芯片或放开"下的投资机会梳理——行业点评报告-20251209 开 数据来源：聚源 | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | | | --- | --- | | 行业名称 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the upcoming spring rally is likely to occur earlier than usual due to significant adjustments in November and a late Spring Festival, suggesting a favorable environment for early positioning in December [1][25][39] - Historical data shows that growth-type spring rallies account for nearly 60% of past spring market trends, driven primarily by liquidity easing and technology policy expectations [2][55] - The cyclical spring rally, while less frequent, still holds strong predictive value, with approximately 40% of past rallies characterized by inventory replenishment and inflation expectations [2][60] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that both technology and cyclical sectors can thrive simultaneously, suggesting a dual-driven approach to investment strategies [4][48] - Key sectors for investment include technology (military, media, AI applications) and cyclical industries (solar, chemicals, steel), which are expected to benefit from improving PPI and anti-involution policies [4][60] - The report highlights that the spring rally is not confined to the spring season, as it can be influenced by macroeconomic expectations, liquidity improvements, and institutional behavior [25][34] Group 3 - The report outlines that the spring rally typically features a strong focus on high beta stocks, with significant sector rotation reflecting the market's anticipation of economic trends and policy directions [49][55] - It notes that the performance of growth stocks is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions and technology policy, making them prime candidates for investment during the spring rally [56][59] - The cyclical rally is characterized by a recovery in resource prices and manufacturing sectors, driven by inventory replenishment and improving economic conditions [60]