暖春凉夏——2026 年 A 股年度策略 20251228 摘要 从中长期来看，预计 2026 年一季度可能成为全年高点。一季度冲顶后，上行 弹性空间相对有限。这与当前一致乐观预期有所不同，需要投资者保持谨慎。 2026 年市场展望：预计 2026 年一季度可能成为全年高点，与当前一 致乐观预期不同，需保持谨慎，上行弹性空间相对有限，或呈现前高后 低的状态。 企业盈利预测：明年企业盈利增速预计在 5%至 10%之间，略低于市场 一致预期。若 EPS 增长在此区间，指数涨幅可能仅在 10%左右，高点 或在 4,200 至 4,300 点区间。 估值评估：以上证指数为例，股债性价比指标显示当前市场虽未达到泡 沫状态，但已接近传统意义上的顶部位置，大幅提升估值难度较大。 筹码结构分析：主动权益持仓极端分化，电子行业占比接近 25%，TMT 合计接近 40%，历史数据显示，当一个行业持仓逼近 20%时容易见顶。 消费板块机会：当前消费板块预期极低，筹码结构低迷，容易因某些小 因素而反转，明年可能出现超预期表现，值得重点关注。 周期股投资逻辑：明年周期股有机会，但非基于 PPI 通胀逻辑，需关注 PPI 翻正后经营杠杆 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of sustainable future cash flow as a key investment principle, focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from this trend [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers around the principle that future cash flow should balance growth potential and risk control [2]. - Cash flow is viewed from a macro perspective, tracking the ultimate destination of funds rather than being limited to financial statements [2]. - The performance of growth stocks in the A-share market is linked to the certainty of future cash flows, with examples like optical module stocks demonstrating this principle [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The four main sectors identified for investment opportunities include: - **Internet Sector**: Increasing reliance on internet platforms for work and life leads to stable cash flow advantages [4]. - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: Overseas companies are acquiring early-stage options for innovative drugs in China, providing stable cash flow to this sector [5]. - **Shipping Sector**: Global trade volumes remain stable, with opportunities arising from transshipment trade, supporting cash flow in the shipping industry [5]. - **Export Chain**: Export companies benefit from nominal growth in overseas economies while maintaining cost advantages domestically, enhancing competitiveness [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Portfolio Management - The investment strategy involves a balanced industry allocation with slight tilts towards favored sectors, while also identifying undervalued reversal opportunities [3]. - Valuation is a primary consideration in selecting specific stocks, with a focus on dynamic tracking to assess the reasonableness of valuations [3]. - Adjustments to the portfolio are made when performance growth or future orders do not align with current valuation increases [3].