Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing significant short-term valuation compression, but given the resilience of the equity market, convertible bonds still present investment opportunities, particularly through a low premium strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.47% last week, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.35%, indicating a notable compression in convertible bond valuations [1]. - Institutional profit-taking is a major factor influencing short-term valuations in the convertible bond market, although long-term trends remain positive as long as the equity market continues its upward trajectory [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation and Risks - As of October 17, the average parity of convertible bonds was 97.34 yuan, with an average conversion premium rate of 39.99%. High premium convertible bonds have seen significant compression in their conversion premium rates due to increased expectations of forced redemptions [1]. - Large-scale convertible bonds, such as those from Liugong and Hengbang, have experienced rapid compression in premium rates following market speculation about forced redemptions, highlighting the risks associated with high premium and large-scale convertible bonds [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Despite external disturbances, the equity market's upward trend is expected to continue, providing a favorable environment for convertible bonds, which exhibit relative resilience and investment value [2]. - In a sustained bull market, a low premium strategy is recommended as it allows for better participation in the upside of underlying stocks while minimizing valuation compression risks [2]. - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks and TMT industries benefiting from increased overseas AI capital expenditure, is identified as a key investment focus, alongside a balanced approach to cyclical and financial sectors [2].

报告导读： 转债短期估值压缩显著，但是在权益市场具备定力的背景下，转债跟着确定性 较大，仍建议均衡布局，优选低溢价率策略。 权益市场震荡调整，转债估值主动压缩。 上周上证指数下行 1.47% ，同期中证转债下行 2.35% ，转债估值压缩相对显著。主要原因在于一是机构的减持 ，另一方面是部分转债条款博弈的影响。机构止盈是当前时间点对转债短期估值影响较大的因素，但是长期来看只要权益市场不改上行趋势，被压缩的估值很 快会出现修复，尤其是转债近期估值的波动，都呈现小区间调整和快速修复的状态。此外，高平价转债的估值上周压缩显著，主要原因在于强赎标的增加带来 了市场扰动。 强赎预期增强，需注意高平价大规模转债标的超预期强赎的风险。 截至 10 月 17 日，转债市场平均平价为 97.34 元，平均转股溢价率为 39.99% 。分平价 区间来看，高平价的转债转股溢价率压缩较为显著。柳工、恒邦等规模比较大的转债标的在市场发酵可能强赎预期之后都出现了溢价率的快速压缩。高平价且 规模较大的转债一旦转股溢价率较高，确实存在条款博弈的风险，尤其是规模较大标的，往往涉及强赎之后正股摊薄，可能会加剧强赎风险。 权益市场上行区间尚未结束 ...