11月24日，A股市场涨跌分化，中证石化产业指数震荡下行，现跌约%，成分股三美股份、蓝晓科技、 华峰化学等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）近10个交易日有8个交易日获得资金净流入，合 计"吸金"2674万元。 兴业证券分析称，近期商品市场涨价的线索可以概括为两条，一是全球AI资本开支带动下的新能源产 业链、有色和化工涨价，包括新能源相关化工品（硫化工、磷化工）、制冷剂（氟化工）、金属&新材 料（锂、锡、铝、铜、钨）、存储；二是供给收缩+"反内卷"受益的化工品，包括叶酸、有机硅DMC、 盐酸、聚氨酯、化纤等。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，按照申万二级行业 来看，中证石化产业指数前三大行业分别为炼化及贸易（26.76%）、化学制品（22.41%）和农化制品 （21.14%）， "反内卷"政策加持下行业长期价值凸显，供需持续改善景气度有望持续上行。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

2025.11.20 本文字数：6137，阅读时长大约10分钟 作者 |第一财经 韦薇 "人工智能（AI）泡沫论"搅得华尔街惴惴不安，此前AI股创下自DeepSeek冲击以来的最大单日跌幅。 11月19日，英伟达财报姗姗来迟，这次并未令投资者失望。 10月30日，英伟达的市值正式突破5万亿美元，而股价也站上了200美元大关。但11月开始，整个AI板 块就陷入了回调，循环投资风险、资本开支见顶担忧、大空头做空等噪音此起彼伏，英伟达的股价也回 调至180美元区间，一众热门AI股更是跌幅达到50%。 "AI泡沫论"几乎每隔一段时间就会传出，但经历了近2年的AI狂潮，这次市场似乎开始认真考虑这个问 题。而大语言模型的开创者OpenAI是这一切的催化剂。 事实上，近两年来暴涨的AI股都是和算力、电力、数据中心等相关的AI基础设施公司，而如今，它们 的命运似乎开始和OpenAI紧密相连。 据公开信息，今年以来，OpenAI已签署了价值约1万亿美元的交易，从而获得运行AI模型的计算能力， 这些协议的交易方包括AMD、英伟达、甲骨文（Oracle）和CoreWeave等。这些企业的利益也与OpenAI 未来的盈利能力相绑定— ...

作者 | 第一财经 韦薇 "人工智能（AI）泡沫论"搅得华尔街惴惴不安，此前AI股创下自DeepSeek冲击以来的最大单日跌 幅。11月19日，英伟达财报姗姗来迟，这次并未令投资者失望。 英伟达是整个AI资本开支链条的源头，它的订单约等于全球AI投资的总量，它收入、毛利、指引=整 个AI行业的"需求真相"。此次英伟达不仅三季度总营收两年来首次同比加快增长（+65%），最关键 的数据中心收入也创历史新高，同比增长66%。此外，各界更为关注的则为四季度的业绩指引，650 亿美元的指引超出了华尔街约620亿美元的预期。 华尔街资管机构Amont Partners董事总经理李肇宇（Rob Li）对第一财经表示，英伟达CEO黄仁勋 似乎知道市场的"痛点"，特别强调了四点——云GPU售罄（回应资本开支见顶的担忧）；训练和推理 的计算需求均呈指数级增长（英伟达GPU更占优势的训练需求不会因推理占比上升而下降）；六年 前发货的A100 GPU今年仍满负荷工作（暗示GPU极度供不应求，并回击空头称GPU只能折旧两三 年）；包括台积电在内的供应链强大（此前AI云服务商Core Weave因供应链问题影响交付导致股价 大跌）。尽管 ...

"人工智能（AI）泡沫论"搅得华尔街惴惴不安，此前AI股创下自DeepSeek冲击以来的最大单日跌幅。 11月19日，英伟达财报姗姗来迟，这次并未令投资者失望。 短期而言，英伟达已经可以给极度不安的市场交上一个满意的答卷。 英伟达是整个AI资本开支链条的源头，它的订单约等于全球AI投资的总量，它收入、毛利、指引=整个 AI行业的"需求真相"。此次英伟达不仅三季度总营收两年来首次同比加快增长（+65%），最关键的数 据中心收入也创历史新高，同比增长66%。此外，各界更为关注的则为四季度的业绩指引，650亿美元 的指引超出了华尔街约620亿美元的预期。 华尔街资管机构Amont Partners董事总经理李肇宇（Rob Li）对第一财经表示，英伟达CEO黄仁勋似乎 知道市场的"痛点"，特别强调了四点——云GPU售罄（回应资本开支见顶的担忧）；训练和推理的计算 需求均呈指数级增长（英伟达GPU更占优势的训练需求不会因推理占比上升而下降）；六年前发货的 A100 GPU今年仍满负荷工作（暗示GPU极度供不应求，并回击空头称GPU只能折旧两三年）；包括台 积电在内的供应链强大（此前AI云服务商Core Weave因供应 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 4000 points, indicating increased difficulty in market navigation due to rapid sector rotation and differentiation [3][4] - Global markets are also showing signs of volatility, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a continuous decline since November due to liquidity concerns and skepticism regarding AI capital expenditures [3][4] Quantitative Strategy Allocation Views - The preferred strategy allocation is: Equity Enhancement Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Evergreen Low Volatility Strategy, reflecting a more flexible approach in the current market environment [4] - Despite short-term pressures, the market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium to long term, with limited downside potential [4] Fund Strategy Performance - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy achieved a weekly return of 0.537%, with cumulative excess returns of 1.412% since its inception [5] - The Equity Enhancement Fund Strategy recorded a weekly return of -0.056%, indicating challenges in generating excess returns in the current market environment [5] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy outperformed the benchmark with a weekly return of 0.027%, accumulating excess returns of 0.534% since its launch [5] Overseas Equity Strategy Performance - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy reported a weekly return of 0.638%, with a cumulative excess return of 1.170%, benefiting from the ongoing technological advancements and economic stability in the U.S. [6] Fund Combination Performance Tracking - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Strategy has consistently maintained lower volatility and drawdown compared to the benchmark, achieving a return of 15.124% year-to-date [9] - The Equity Enhancement Fund Strategy has shown a return of 21.428% year-to-date, closely tracking the benchmark [9] - The Cash Growth Fund Strategy has achieved a year-to-date return of 1.361%, outperforming the benchmark [9] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy has recorded a year-to-date return of 11.935%, indicating strong performance in the global market context [9] Fund Combination Construction Ideas - The Evergreen Low Volatility Fund Combination aims to provide stable returns in high-risk environments, appealing to investors seeking lower risk profiles [20][22] - The Equity Enhancement Fund Combination focuses on identifying funds with strong alpha generation capabilities, aiming for higher returns in improving market conditions [23] - The Cash Growth Fund Combination is designed to optimize short-term cash management, ensuring higher yields while minimizing volatility [24] - The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Combination seeks to enhance global asset allocation, providing investors with diversified exposure to international markets [25]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is oscillating upward, for stock index options is oscillating, and for treasury bond futures is oscillating upward [9][10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is generally optimistic. Stock index futures are boosted by optimistic risk preferences, stock index options show a positive sentiment, and treasury bond futures are expected to see the central bank restart treasury bond trading [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Optimistic risk preferences boost the market. The base spreads, inter - period spreads, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed. The rise is driven by positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and overseas technology mapping. The configuration suggests using dividends + IM long positions. The outlook is oscillating upward [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The option market sentiment is optimistic. The trading volume of each option variety has exceeded 10 billion, and the sentiment index has strengthened. Trading should follow the market, and the strategy shifts from selling options to buying options. Suggestions include setting up bull spread combinations or hedging equity positions. The outlook is oscillating [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank will restart treasury bond trading. The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed up. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased, and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is beneficial to the bond market in the short term. The fourth - quarter mid - to - late bullish trend may start, and the bond market is expected to oscillate upward. Operational suggestions include trend strategies, hedging strategies, basis strategies, and curve strategies [10][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 27, 2025, China's September industrial enterprise profit rate for large - scale industries reached 21.6% year - on - year (single - month), and the eurozone's September seasonally - adjusted money supply M3 annual rate was 2.8%. On October 29, the US will release the September seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index monthly rate, and on October 30, the US will announce the October federal funds rate target upper limit. On October 31, Japan will release the September unemployment rate, China will release the October official manufacturing PMI, and the eurozone will release the October harmonized CPI annual rate (un - seasonally adjusted preliminary value) [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Regulatory Policy**: The CSRC issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", introducing 23 practical measures [14]. - **Sino - US Trade**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, emphasizing the importance of Sino - US relations [14]. - **Northbound Funds**: The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Overseas Investor System", aiming to enhance the attractiveness of the system to overseas long - term funds [15]. - **AI**: Qualcomm launched AI chips to compete with NVIDIA in the data center market, with AI200 and AI250 expected to be commercially available in 2026 and 2027 respectively [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [16]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the review of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of high-quality development, institutional reform, and industrial transformation as key themes for the upcoming planning period [9][10]. Deep Dive Topics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical phase for consolidating the foundations for achieving the 2035 long-term goals, focusing on high-quality development and economic resilience [9]. - The article highlights the rapid increase in AI capital expenditure in the U.S., questioning whether this trend indicates a bubble and how long the capital expenditure expansion cycle can last [13][14]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" review indicates that significant reforms and modernization efforts are necessary to achieve the goals set for 2035, including a doubling of GDP compared to 2020 levels and a substantial reduction in carbon emissions [10][16]. Hot Topics - The article outlines the expectations for the new "Five-Year Plan," focusing on high-quality development, institutional reforms, and industrial upgrades as the three main lines of action [10][12]. - It discusses the outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which emphasizes the need for a robust economic foundation and the importance of maintaining strategic confidence in the face of challenges [16][24]. - The article also addresses the implications of the U.S. government shutdown and its potential impact on global markets, particularly in relation to interest rates and gold prices [20][21]. Economic Insights - The article provides insights into the resilience of the economy in the third quarter, attributing this to both short-term factors and medium-term strengths that support reasonable growth [18][23]. - It notes that the current cycle of AI investment is significantly faster than previous technological revolutions, with AI-related sectors contributing 1.5% to GDP in the current cycle compared to lower percentages in past cycles [14][15].

Core Insights - The article discusses the review of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of this period for achieving the long-term goals set for 2035 [9]. Deep Dive Topics - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical phase for deepening the development strategies established in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and laying the groundwork for the 2035 vision [9]. - The article highlights the need for high-quality development, institutional reforms, and industrial transformation as the three main themes for the new five-year plan [12]. Hot Topics - AI capital expenditure is identified as a potential pillar of the U.S. economy, raising questions about whether the current investment boom is a bubble and how long the capital expenditure expansion cycle can last [13]. - The upcoming "Four Central" meeting is anticipated to set new expectations for the next five years, focusing on sustainable economic growth and social stability [12]. - The article reflects on the spirit of the recent plenary session, emphasizing the need to continue writing new chapters of economic miracles and social stability [12]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes that the recent fiscal spending pressures are being addressed through the implementation of two types of incremental fiscal funds [18]. - It reports that overseas risk-free interest rates have declined, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which have reached new highs [20]. - The third quarter economic performance is characterized by resilience, supported by both short-term factors and medium-term strengths [23].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing significant short-term valuation compression, but given the resilience of the equity market, convertible bonds still present investment opportunities, particularly through a low premium strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.47% last week, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.35%, indicating a notable compression in convertible bond valuations [1]. - Institutional profit-taking is a major factor influencing short-term valuations in the convertible bond market, although long-term trends remain positive as long as the equity market continues its upward trajectory [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation and Risks - As of October 17, the average parity of convertible bonds was 97.34 yuan, with an average conversion premium rate of 39.99%. High premium convertible bonds have seen significant compression in their conversion premium rates due to increased expectations of forced redemptions [1]. - Large-scale convertible bonds, such as those from Liugong and Hengbang, have experienced rapid compression in premium rates following market speculation about forced redemptions, highlighting the risks associated with high premium and large-scale convertible bonds [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Despite external disturbances, the equity market's upward trend is expected to continue, providing a favorable environment for convertible bonds, which exhibit relative resilience and investment value [2]. - In a sustained bull market, a low premium strategy is recommended as it allows for better participation in the upside of underlying stocks while minimizing valuation compression risks [2]. - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks and TMT industries benefiting from increased overseas AI capital expenditure, is identified as a key investment focus, alongside a balanced approach to cyclical and financial sectors [2].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing significant short-term valuation compression, but given the resilience of the equity market, convertible bonds still present investment opportunities, particularly through a low premium strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.47% last week, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.35%, indicating a notable compression in convertible bond valuations [1]. - Institutional profit-taking is a major factor influencing short-term valuations in the convertible bond market, although long-term trends remain positive as long as the equity market continues its upward trajectory [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation and Risks - As of October 17, the average parity of convertible bonds was 97.34 yuan, with an average conversion premium rate of 39.99%. High premium convertible bonds have seen significant compression in their conversion premium rates due to increased expectations of forced redemptions [1]. - Large-scale convertible bonds with high premiums face risks related to forced redemptions, particularly when conversion premium rates are elevated, which could lead to dilution of the underlying stock [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Despite external disturbances, the equity market's upward trend is expected to continue, providing a favorable environment for convertible bonds, which exhibit resilience and potential for both appreciation and downside protection [2]. - In a sustained bull market, a low premium strategy is recommended as it allows for better participation in the underlying stock's gains while minimizing valuation compression risks. The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks and TMT industries benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure, is highlighted as a key area for investment [2].