（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 半导体设备ETF（159516）跟踪的是半导体材料设备指数（931743），该指数聚焦于半导体产业链中的 材料与设备环节，从市场中选取涉及半导体制造、封装测试所需的关键材料及设备供应业务的上市公司 证券作为指数样本，以反映半导体产业上游领域相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 申万宏源证券指出，算力行业的投资逻辑正向"效率优先、商业转化率优先"全面转型，其核心诉求 从"无上限的远期规模扩张"转向"有边界、可落地、与商业化节奏高度匹配的精准投入"。同时，全球半 导体产业链正迎来一轮覆盖全环节、多品类的系统性涨价潮，呈现出全链条传导、海内外共振的鲜明特 征。本轮涨价从上游晶圆制造、封装测试的产能报价，延伸至中游存储芯片、MCU、模拟芯片、功率 半导体的终端产品定价，并带动电阻、电感等被动元件同步涨价。当前电子产业链呈"三线并进"的系统 性涨价：包括景气拉动型（如存储、CPU）、成本传导型（如CCL/电子布、被动元件）以及供给收缩 型（如利基存储、成熟代工）。在AI资本开支加速与金属原材料上行的共振下，行业于26年一季度形 成"淡季不淡"的全面通胀格局。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has been stagnant, with a slight increase of 1.7% since Q4 of last year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.3% during the same period, raising concerns about whether strong earnings will be sufficient to meet market expectations [1][3] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Nvidia is set to release its highly anticipated Q4 and annual earnings report, with Wall Street consensus expecting strong performance that may exceed analyst predictions [1] - Investors are facing a "expectation paradox," as historical data shows Nvidia's stock has faced sell-offs following its last two earnings reports, despite strong earnings [3] - Concerns exist that even if Nvidia's official earnings and guidance are solid, they may not meet heightened expectations, leading to potential stock declines [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Competition - The technology sector, particularly the "Magnificent Seven," has seen a nearly 1% decline since Q4 of last year, underperforming the S&P 500, reflecting cautious investor sentiment regarding AI capital expenditures translating into actual profits [4] - Nvidia's forward P/E ratio has dropped below 24, nearing a five-year low and significantly lower than its five-year average of 38, which may present a buying opportunity [7] - The competitive landscape is shifting as companies like AMD, Amazon, Broadcom, and Alphabet introduce chips for generative AI models, raising questions about Nvidia's ability to maintain market share [7] Group 3: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is uncertain, with geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data contributing to market volatility [5][6] - Recent economic indicators show a slowdown in growth and persistent inflation, leading traders to bet that the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious stance on further rate cuts [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2026 will be a pivotal year for China's economic reform and development, with a focus on domestic demand and a shift towards a "non-typical" recovery process [3][4]. Domestic Macro Situation and Policy Mainline - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to mark a year of comprehensive reform and development, with domestic demand changes anticipated to be more significant than external demand [3]. - Key highlights of the domestic economy include: 1. "Anti-involution" leading to a reduction in price indices and recovery in corporate profits 2. Service sector opening up, contributing to a rebound in consumption 3. Government-led initiatives in "new" infrastructure and increased private investment in consumption-related infrastructure [4]. Policy Perspective - The main line of the "15th Five-Year Plan" reflects a reconstruction of economic growth logic, with a shift in industrial policy towards "extraordinary" technological breakthroughs and a focus on quality [6]. - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand through service consumption and enhancing vitality through service sector openness is highlighted [6]. Overseas Economic and Policy Trends - Traditional "cyclical" sectors like manufacturing continue to recover, while AI capital expenditure remains a new growth point. Overall, the economies of the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to perform better in 2026 compared to 2025, with resilient external demand [9]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is nearing its end, and the dollar is still in the first half of a long-term depreciation cycle [10]. Major Asset Allocation - With the recovery of nominal GDP, the process of "funds rebalancing" is expected to continue. The demand for market entry from Chinese residents moving their deposits may be underestimated, and international funds rebalancing could strengthen the renminbi [12]. - The recognition of the renminbi's appreciation trend is likely to gradually form a consensus, potentially driving the revaluation of Chinese assets and catalyzing structural trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [13]. Observations from Local "Two Sessions" - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand has significantly increased in local government meetings, with accelerated transitions towards digitalization and green transformation in industries [7].

辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构研究大咖及相关专家，盘点当前大类 资产市场态势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 "财政扩张与全球化裂痕催生商品牛市，是我们上一代分析师的重要经验。"田亚雄表示，20世纪70年代 的历史图景，正为当下美国宏观环境提供镜鉴。彼时，美国在"伟大社会"计划与越南战争驱动下开启财 政扩张，财政赤字占GDP比重骤升，叠加布雷顿森林体系瓦解、石油危机爆发，全球化进程逆转，大宗 商品迎来史诗级行情——路透CRB指数10年涨幅超200%。其核心逻辑在于，财政扩张推升实体需求， 而全球化退潮削弱廉价进口品对通胀的压制，形成结构性供应紧张。 这一逻辑在当下再度显现。田亚雄表示，2026年美国预计减税规模达3960亿美元，可直接拉动消费增长 1.8个百分点，同时，AI革命与绿色转型催生新型需求，逆全球化深化加剧供应链脆弱性。美国"高财政 驱动"通过两条路径影响商品定价：一是资本开支拉动。财政资金投向半导体、电网等领域，带动铜、 铝等工业金属需求。二是通胀螺旋通道，赤字货币化推升长期通胀预期。面对高通胀压力，美国面临二 元选择，若AI技术短期无法显著提升全要素生产率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is reminiscent of the 1970s, where fiscal expansion and geopolitical tensions are driving a new commodity bull market, with significant implications for pricing and demand in various sectors [3][4]. - The U.S. is expected to implement a tax reduction of $396 billion in 2026, which could directly boost consumer growth by 1.8 percentage points, while the AI revolution and green transition are creating new demand dynamics [3][4]. - The commodity market is shifting from a supply-demand pricing model to one focused on liquidity and risk hedging, indicating that commodities may outperform other asset classes [4]. Group 2 - AI capital expenditure is reshaping the demand for non-ferrous metals, with significant increases in copper consumption driven by data center construction and energy storage systems [5][6]. - The first phase of AI investment is expected to double copper usage in power distribution systems, with an anticipated increase of 400,000 tons in copper consumption by 2026, representing 2% of global production [6]. - The second phase involves a surge in lithium demand, projected to grow at an annual rate of 15%-20%, while aluminum's application in energy storage systems is expected to rise above 15% [6]. Group 3 - There is a consensus in the market ranking commodities as "non-ferrous > precious metals > agricultural products > energy > ferrous," but this consensus is fragile, with risks of underestimating fundamental pricing and macro structural changes [8]. - The black metal sector faces pressure due to traditional demand drivers, and if fiscal signals do not exceed expectations by March 2026, valuation recovery for black metals may be constrained [8]. - The risk of a rollback in global decarbonization efforts could lead to a reassessment of demand premiums for green metals like copper and aluminum, with potential price adjustments exceeding expectations [9]. Group 4 - In the precious metals market, gold is viewed as a more stable investment compared to silver, supported by strong demand from central banks and ETFs, which enhances its "safe haven" status [10][11]. - Gold's unique financial attributes insulate it from industrial demand fluctuations, and its relatively low volatility makes it attractive for long-term investment [11]. - The current speculative net long positions in gold are below levels seen during last year's rate cuts, suggesting potential for price increases if monetary easing resumes [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since the beginning of 2026, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, which has shown the weakest performance among core assets [1][49]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since mid-January, the A-share market began to cool down, leading to increased attention on Hong Kong stocks, which initially saw a rise due to new consumption, metals, and internet sectors [3][51]. - However, concerns over global precious metals volatility and hawkish sentiments regarding the Federal Reserve have placed significant pressure on Hong Kong stocks, resulting in a 3% decline in the Hang Seng Index and a 6.5% drop in the Hang Seng Tech Index since February [3][51]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen nearly 20% from its peak in October, reaching a new low since July of the previous year [3][51]. Group 2: Reasons for Underperformance - The underperformance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed to tightening liquidity concerns, structural issues, and weak macroeconomic fundamentals [3][51]. - The market is worried about tightening liquidity due to the appointment of a hawkish Federal Reserve chairman, which has negatively impacted liquidity-sensitive assets like the Hang Seng Tech Index [5][57]. - The reassessment of AI capital expenditure narratives has also negatively affected tech stocks, with major companies like Tencent experiencing significant declines due to concerns over missed opportunities in the AI sector [9][57]. - Weak fundamentals are evident as the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, below market expectations, indicating a need for sustained policy support for recovery [10][58]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks is contingent on credit cycles, industry trends, and liquidity, with limited index space expected due to a weakening credit cycle [13][61]. - If fiscal policies only provide a floor without aggressive stimulus, the credit cycle is likely to weaken further, limiting index performance [14][63]. - The structural strength of the market will depend on the performance of key sectors such as technology and new consumption, which are crucial for potential recovery [19][67]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on sectors with unique structural advantages, such as dividends, technology, and new consumption, which are less prevalent in A-shares [27][80]. - The current recommendation is to prioritize sectors like essential retail, technology hardware, and new consumption, which have shown strong fundamentals and moderate trading activity [91][92].

点击小程序查看报告原文 1月中旬A股逐步"降温"后，南向转为更多关注港股，再加上新消费、有色和互联网的催化，共同推动港股的一波走高。但随后，全球贵金属动荡、市场 对美联储鹰派的担忧，中美科技龙头"逆风"，使得港股承受了来自风险偏好、流动性和结构上的三重压力。2月以来，恒生指数下跌3%（vs. 上证指数和 标普500小幅下跌1.3%和0.1%），恒生科技下跌6.5%（vs. 科创50和纳斯达克下跌5.8%和1.8%），跌至去年7月以来新低，自10月高点回撤接近20%。 面对近期的波动，尤其是恒生科技的快速回调，很多投资者都担心市场的逻辑和趋势是否被破坏，强势的科技和有色还能继续配置。我们在本文中重点回 答几个问题， 港股为何跑输，何时才能跑赢？市场调整到位了吗？应该如何操作和应对？ 港股为何跑输？流动性收紧担忧、特色结构拖累，宏观基本面偏弱 2025年以来，美A港三地以季度维度切换轮动，呈现此消彼长的"跷跷板"效应： 一季度DeepSeek引领中国资产重估，恒生科技领跑；二季度美国对等关税 后，美股依靠AI龙头业绩与资本开支超预期支撑涨幅，港股新消费和创新药启动，但恒生科技未能收复3月高点，表现落后于美股；三季 ...

★春节前后科技反弹窗口将至！布局错杀修复与硬科技主线 【本期重点】 ★剧震中的主线切换：高切低行情下，如何把握科技与内需的轮动脉搏？ ★春节行情"预热"：服务消费领跑，数据微光下的结构性机会 ★油价"上有顶、下有底"，三桶油股息在走高 ★事件驱动行情接近尾声，煤价继续上涨空间有限 本期会谈邀请数位买方机构的基金经理，对大盘、政策、以及后市投资机会等进行深度交流。 ★在分歧中锁定共识：全球AI资本开支加速，硬件是穿越波动的"锚" ★旺季将至+政策催化，锂电迎来布局黄金窗口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is not bearish recently. Even without direct incremental marginal drivers like reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts, there is a high possibility that interest rates will break through technically and move downward [3] - The recent asset price fluctuations reflect the loosening of the previous extreme narratives. Although long - term narratives such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, the reconstruction of the global trade pattern, and the development of social productivity driven by AI capital expenditure remain valid, asset prices may experience a phased reversal due to minor marginal variables when the market structure becomes extreme [4] - Due to the sudden outbreak of the Venezuela event and the Greenland dispute, the safety of US dollar assets has declined. The prices of resources and precious metals have been pushed up, but the rapid price increase and the inflated speculative nature have made "safe - haven assets" less safe. In the short term, A - bonds with historically low volatility may be better safe - haven assets, which is the core reason for the strength of the bond market recently [5] - The strategy is to hold long positions. As the contract roll - over time approaches, one can move positions to the 06 contract in advance [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Views - The bond market is not bearish recently, and there is a high possibility of an interest rate downward technical breakthrough [3] Recent Concerns - A - share adjustment, local two - sessions, and geopolitical event changes [4] - The essence of recent asset price fluctuations is the loosening of extreme narratives. Long - term narratives are still valid, but asset prices may reverse due to marginal variables [4] - The safety of US dollar assets has declined, and the prices of resources and precious metals have risen. However, "safe - haven assets" are less safe, and A - bonds may be better short - term safe - haven assets [5] Strategy Focus - Hold long positions and move positions to the 06 contract in advance as the roll - over time approaches [6] This Week's Concerns - Domestic macro: The situation of local two - sessions and the start time of Shanghai's second - hand housing acquisition [7] - Monetary policy: The central bank launched 14 - day reverse repurchase, and the net investment of 3M - term repurchase was 1 billion [7] - Overseas macro: US employment data has been consistently weaker than expected [8] - Geopolitical: The geopolitical environment has generally improved, with the US and Iran holding talks, India compromising with the US for low tariffs, and video and phone calls between Chinese and Russian, and Chinese and US leaders on the same day [9] Data Statistics - **Futures data**: 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had positive weekly price changes, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the highest increase of 0.63% for the TL2603 contract [15] - **Spread data**: The cross - period spreads of T2603 - T2606, TF2603 - TF2606, and TS2603 - TS2606 all decreased. The cross - variety spreads of 2TS - T increased by 0.081, 2TF - T decreased by 0.005, and TS - TF increased by 0.043 [15] - **Spot bond yields**: The yields of most treasury and national development bonds decreased, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield decreasing by 4.00 BP and the 30 - year national development bond yield decreasing by 3.73 BP [15] - **Funding rates**: The bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and SHIBOR rates (SHIBOR1M, SHIBOR3M) all decreased [15]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 继昨夜海外市场恐慌蔓延后，白银再度遭遇闪电式抛售。伦敦银在短短数小时内重挫近10%，而沪银主 力合约开盘便出现超过17%的大幅低开，市场脆弱性与情绪的极端传导显露无遗。 近期逻辑： 分析师观点： 沪银主力Ag2604合约已跌穿重要的技术支撑区域，即20000-20200整数关口附近的黄金分割0.382回调 位。盘面在破位后的一次反弹中，于该区域再度承压，初步确认了原有支撑已转化为关键阻力的可能。 若价格在短期内无法有效回升至该区域上方，则需警惕市场情绪继续转弱、价格向下再寻支撑的风险。 下方关键结构支撑可参考此轮涨势的起点，即12月1日开盘价12650附近，短期也可关注18000整数关口 附近的得失。 这次沪银主力期货的再次大幅下跌，可以看作是一场由海外市场引发的"恐慌接力"。起点是欧美科技股 的重挫，特别是亚马逊等巨头公布的惊人AI资本开支计划，虽然着眼于未来，但市场担心这会严重侵 蚀企业短期利润，导致科技股估值被集体下修，风险偏好急剧降温。 这股悲观情绪迅速蔓延到同样被视作高风险投机资产的加 ...