丨证券研究报告丨 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨中钢国际（000928.SZ） [Table_Title] Q3 收入业绩承压，关注现金流同比转正 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司前三季度实现营业收入 91.75 亿元，同比减少 27.20%；归属净利润 5.56 亿元，同比减少 13.21%；扣非后归属净利润 5.50 亿元，同比减少 5.02%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 中钢国际（000928.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] Q3 收入业绩承压，关注现金流同比转正 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司前三季度实现营业收入 91.75 亿元，同比减少 27.20%；归属净利润 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry has made significant progress in high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in high-end, intelligent, and green development [1] - Breakthroughs in low-carbon metallurgy technology innovation and application have positioned China among the global leaders, with several pioneering projects launched [1] Industry Developments - The introduction of the world's first "hydrogen-based vertical furnace - near-zero carbon electric arc furnace" project by Hebei Steel represents a major advancement in low-carbon steel production [1] - The world's first hydrogen metallurgy green automotive sheet continuous casting production line has been established, showcasing China's commitment to sustainable practices [1] - China Steel Research has launched the world's first pure hydrogen vertical furnace demonstration line, further emphasizing the shift towards low-carbon technologies [1] - Additional cutting-edge low-carbon metallurgy technology demonstration projects, such as thin strip casting and dry granulation of blast furnace slag, have been implemented, contributing to the global transition to green steel production [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.745 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.66%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 424 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.11%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 422 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 13.01% [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company faced significant revenue pressure, with a total revenue of 6.745 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 25.66% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue was 3.226 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.67% year-on-year. The domestic steel industry has been in a downturn since 2022, leading to a notable decline in domestic operations and new contracts [12] Profitability - The company's profitability showed improvement, with a comprehensive gross margin of 15.12% in the first half of 2025, up 3.66 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2, the gross margin was 16.62%, an increase of 4.14 percentage points year-on-year. The period expense ratio was 5.95%, up 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [12] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow faced pressure, with a net outflow of 2.912 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.355 billion yuan year-on-year. The cash collection ratio was 69.74%, down 13.88 percentage points year-on-year [12] New Contracts - The company signed new contracts worth 6.31 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 35.0%. Domestic new contracts totaled 2.444 billion yuan, up 53.8% year-on-year, while overseas new contracts were 3.864 billion yuan, down 52.4% year-on-year [12] Future Outlook - The overseas market remains promising, with potential catalysts expected in 2025. The company has a healthy balance sheet with 6.86 billion yuan in cash and 1.05 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt, resulting in a net cash position of approximately 5.81 billion yuan [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 7.8 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 6.55 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in gross and net profit margins, despite a decline in domestic revenue due to pressure in the metallurgical industry. The overseas market showed steady growth [2][3]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.745 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 25.66%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 424 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.11% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 15.12%, an increase of 3.66 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.760 billion CNY, down 59.88% year-on-year, accounting for 26.09% of total revenue, a decrease of 22.25 percentage points [2]. - Overseas revenue reached 4.985 billion CNY, up 6.36% year-on-year, making up 73.91% of total revenue, an increase of 22.25 percentage points [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s sales net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 6.54%, an increase of 1.70 percentage points year-on-year, although the increase was less than that of the gross profit margin due to higher expense ratios [3]. - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 2.912 billion CNY, which was an increase in outflow by 1.355 billion CNY year-on-year [3]. International Expansion - The company signed new contracts worth 6.308 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, with domestic projects accounting for 2.444 billion CNY (up 53.81% year-on-year) and international projects at 3.864 billion CNY (down 52.36% year-on-year) [4]. - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, with notable contracts in Indonesia and ongoing projects in Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia [4][8]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 14.810 billion CNY, 15.829 billion CNY, and 16.821 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.08%, 6.88%, and 6.27% respectively [8]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 865 million CNY, 932 million CNY, and 1.004 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.55%, 7.77%, and 7.75% respectively [8].