Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in mall rental income, which is alleviating debt repayment pressure. The strategy of combining residential and commercial real estate is expected to drive long-term quality growth [6] - The company's financial performance shows a significant decline in revenue and profit, but the gross margin and recurring income are improving, indicating a potential for stable operations [6][8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 88,999 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 25.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 752 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 2.1% [5] - For 2025, total revenue is estimated at 59,785 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 32.8%. The net profit is projected to be 945 million yuan, showing a recovery with a growth rate of 25.6% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19.8% in 2024 to 34.7% by 2027, indicating better cost management and profitability [5] Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 344 billion yuan, down 33.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 9.7 billion yuan, also down 33.0% [6] - The company’s mall rental income reached 105 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 11% year-on-year, with a target of 140 billion yuan for the full year [6] - The occupancy rate of malls is reported at 97.8%, showing a slight increase compared to the previous year [6] Debt and Financial Health - The company has seen a reduction in interest-bearing debt, with a total of 531 billion yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year. The debt repayment pressure is expected to decrease further in the coming years [6] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company is classified in the yellow zone of the "three red lines" policy, indicating a manageable level of financial risk [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its commercial real estate portfolio to capture the growing consumer market, with a strategic emphasis on quality growth through effective management [6] - The increasing contribution of mall income and gross profit is expected to support the company's stable operations moving forward [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a drop in residential development revenue, while its property leasing and management business remained stable [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 22.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.895 billion yuan, down 32.11% [1]. - Residential development revenue was 15.2 billion yuan, a decline of 45% year-on-year, while property leasing and management revenue was 6.4 billion yuan, an increase of 10.66% [1]. - The gross profit margins for residential development and property leasing and management were 7.96% (down 2.97 percentage points) and 71.2% (down 1.01 percentage points), respectively [1]. Group 2: Sales and Contracts - The company reported a contract sales amount of approximately 10.33 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of about 56.15% year-on-year, with a contract sales area of approximately 1.335 million square meters, down about 59.08% [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had unsold area of 11.79 million square meters [1]. Group 3: Commercial Operations - The total revenue from commercial operations in the first half of 2025 was approximately 6.944 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.78%, with total sales (excluding vehicle sales) exceeding 51.5 billion yuan, up 16.5% [2]. - The company operates 205 Wuyue Plazas across 141 cities, with 174 currently open and a total area of 16.08 million square meters, achieving an occupancy rate of 97.81% [2]. Group 4: Debt and Cash Flow - As of June 30, 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 52.276 billion yuan, with an average financing cost of 5.55% and a net debt ratio of 53.4% [2]. - The company successfully repaid 1.067 billion yuan of domestic and international bonds in the first half of 2025 and secured approximately 4.479 billion yuan in new financing [2]. - The debt structure has been optimized, with a principal coverage ratio greater than 2 times based on Wuyue Plaza assets and an interest coverage ratio greater than 4 times based on total commercial operating revenue [2]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company has completed its nationwide layout of Wuyue Plazas and has demonstrated strong operational capabilities in lower-tier markets, ensuring stable growth in its commercial management business [3]. - With adjustments in residential development, the company is expected to achieve a "residential + commercial" dual-drive model in the future [3]. - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.25, 0.32, and 0.36 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 19 yuan for 2025, corresponding to 0.7 times PB, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3].

业绩之外，新城控股还始终践行企业主体责任，将"保交付"作为核心任务之一。数据显示，上半年公司 已完成16000余套住宅的集中交付，积极兑现对业主的承诺。进入下半年，新城控股将持续优化交付流 程，强化工程品质管控，确保全年交付任务高标准完成。 商业压舱 业绩贡献提升至近八成 在行业深度调整的宏观背景下，新城控股(601155.SH)通过"住宅+商业"双轮驱动战略，在行业不确定性 中展现出强劲韧性。8月29日晚发布的2025年半年报显示，公司继续保持正向盈利，经营性业务贡献不 断提升，融资渠道持续拓宽，整体经营保持稳中向好的发展态势。 营收221.00亿 资金回笼率达115.05% 依托双轮驱动战略优势，新城控股住宅保持高回款、商业势能持续释放，发展韧性显著提升。 根据半年报，上半年新城控股实现营业收入221亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净利润8.95亿元，扣非归 母净利润9.47亿元，毛利率为26.85%，同比增长5.25个百分点。在核心指标保持稳定的基础上，截至报 告期末，新城控股已售未结转面积(含合联营项目)达到1179.19万平方米，为未来业绩兑现奠定坚实基 础。 在地产开发业务上，新城控股以重销售、抓回款为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Under the macro backdrop of industry adjustment, the company demonstrates strong resilience through its "residential + commercial" dual-drive strategy, maintaining positive profitability and steady operational development [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 22.1 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.895 billion, with a gross margin of 26.85%, an increase of 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a contract sales amount of 10.33 billion and a collection amount of 11.88 billion, with a collection rate of 115.05% [2]. - As of the reporting period, the company had a cash balance of 9.183 billion and a net debt ratio of 53.40%, indicating a solid financial foundation [2][3]. Debt Management - The company actively adjusted its debt structure, reducing its financing balance to 52.276 billion, a decrease of 1.374 billion from the beginning of the year [3]. - The company’s interest-bearing liabilities from joint ventures decreased to 2.582 billion, down 0.691 billion from the beginning of the year [3]. Commercial Operations - The company’s commercial operations generated a total revenue of 6.944 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, with a gross margin of 71.20% [4]. - The company has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, with a total opening area of 16.0814 million square meters and a stable occupancy rate of 97.81% [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company emphasizes a "five-sided management philosophy" focusing on quality, customer satisfaction, professional craftsmanship, green intelligence, and mutual engagement [5]. - The company has successfully integrated sports and commercial activities, enhancing consumer engagement and driving business momentum [5][6]. Financing Strategy - The company successfully issued a $300 million senior unsecured bond and a 1 billion medium-term note, maintaining a low financing cost [7]. - The company has diversified its financing channels, with approximately 4.479 billion in new financing secured against its commercial properties [7]. Construction Management Business - The company’s construction management segment achieved a breakthrough with over 3.05 million square meters of new signed area in the first half of 2025, managing a total of 1.9 million square meters [8]. - This segment is contributing to a sustainable management fee income system, becoming a new profit driver for the company [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company successfully issued $300 million in bonds, marking the first offshore debt financing for real estate companies in three years, indicating credit recovery and sustained financing capability [7] - Rental income from shopping malls has maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12% from January to May 2025, and the company plans to achieve a total rental income of 14 billion yuan in 2025, a 9.3% increase year-on-year [7] - The company has adopted a "residential + commercial" dual-driven strategy, focusing on commercial real estate to create a quality growth benchmark in the expanding consumer market [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 59.665 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 33% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 848 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [6] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 24.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.3% [6] Sales Performance - Sales revenue from January to May 2025 was 8.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55%, but the average selling price per square meter increased by 8% to 7,761 yuan [7] - The company has not acquired new land in 2025, with planned construction area down by 39% year-on-year [7] Debt Management - The company has a total outstanding public debt of 18.2 billion yuan, with 10.04 million USD in dollar-denominated debt, indicating a manageable debt profile [7] - The pressure of debt repayment is expected to gradually ease over the next two years [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 17 yuan for 2025 [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 88.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.32%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 752 million yuan, an increase of 2.07% year-on-year [2][4]. - The commercial management profit contribution is gradually increasing, while the development segment continues to face pressure [2][8]. - The company’s residential development revenue is projected to be 76 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 85% of total revenue, while commercial management revenue is expected to be 12 billion yuan, contributing approximately 14% [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial indicators for 2024A include: - Total revenue: 88,999 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: -25.3% - Net profit attributable to the parent: 752 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 2.1% - Earnings per share: 0.33 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 39 times [4][5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 307.193 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 83.7% [9]. Market Performance - The company’s commercial operations are expected to see a total revenue growth of 13% in 2024, with a rental rate of 97.97% for its properties [8]. - The company has established a significant presence with 200 "Wuyue Plaza" locations across 136 cities, with 173 currently operational [8]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is likely to achieve a "dual-wheel drive" model of residential and commercial operations as it adjusts its residential development strategy [8]. - The estimated earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.25, 0.32, and 0.36 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to reduced sales scale [8].

Core Viewpoint - Resilience is identified as a crucial strength for real estate companies to navigate new industry cycles and environments, with New城控股 demonstrating stability and continuous progress through its "residential + commercial" dual-driven strategy [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, New城控股 achieved a revenue of 89 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 752 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.07%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 870 million yuan, up 183.07% [2] - The overall gross margin stood at 19.80%, while the average financing cost decreased by 28 basis points to 5.92%, indicating stable and improving core financial metrics [2] - The company recorded a contract sales amount of approximately 40.17 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 5.39 million square meters, and a collection amount of 41.1 billion yuan, achieving a collection rate of 102% [2] Cash Flow and Debt Management - As of the end of the reporting period, New城控股 had a cash balance of 10.296 billion yuan, ensuring ample liquidity. The net debt ratio was 52.44%, maintaining a low level [3] - The operating cash flow net amount was 1.512 billion yuan, marking seven consecutive years of positive operating cash flow, providing sufficient space for development [3] - The company successfully repaid 5.262 billion yuan of bonds in the domestic and international markets in 2024, showcasing strong creditworthiness [3] Commercial Operations - New城控股's commercial operations generated a total revenue of 12.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, exceeding the annual target of 12.5 billion yuan [2] - The proportion of commercial management income rose to 13.52% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 70.17% from property leasing and management [5] - The company opened 15 new 吾悦广场 locations, expanding its commercial footprint to 173 integrated projects, with a total commercial area of 16.01 million square meters and an occupancy rate of 97.97% [5] Future Outlook - New城控股 plans to achieve a commercial operation revenue of 14 billion yuan in 2025 and aims to open five new 吾悦广场 locations [6] - The company has upgraded its commercial management division to 新城吾悦商业管理集团有限公司, introducing a new operational philosophy to adapt to changing consumer markets [6] - The establishment of 新城建管, a platform for real estate construction and management, has shown potential, managing over 100 projects and achieving a national layout [6] Industry Trends - The industry is shifting towards reliance on internal growth and self-sustaining business models, moving away from debt-driven strategies, with New城控股 exemplifying this approach through low leverage and strong operational cash flow [7]