2025 年 06 月 15 日 新城控股 (601155) ——成功发行 3 亿美元债，商场租金保持快增 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 13 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 13.42 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 16.70/8.36 | | 市净率 | 0.5 | | 息率（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 30,270 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,377.00/10,122.11 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 27.12 | | 资产负债率% | | 72.93 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,256/2,256 | | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | | -/- | 上 市 公 司 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 06-13 07-13 08-13 09-13 10-13 11-13 12-13 01-13 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 17 yuan for 2025 [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 88.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.32%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 752 million yuan, an increase of 2.07% year-on-year [2][4]. - The commercial management profit contribution is gradually increasing, while the development segment continues to face pressure [2][8]. - The company’s residential development revenue is projected to be 76 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 85% of total revenue, while commercial management revenue is expected to be 12 billion yuan, contributing approximately 14% [8]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial indicators for 2024A include: - Total revenue: 88,999 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: -25.3% - Net profit attributable to the parent: 752 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 2.1% - Earnings per share: 0.33 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 39 times [4][5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be 307.193 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 83.7% [9]. Market Performance - The company’s commercial operations are expected to see a total revenue growth of 13% in 2024, with a rental rate of 97.97% for its properties [8]. - The company has established a significant presence with 200 "Wuyue Plaza" locations across 136 cities, with 173 currently operational [8]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is likely to achieve a "dual-wheel drive" model of residential and commercial operations as it adjusts its residential development strategy [8]. - The estimated earnings per share for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.25, 0.32, and 0.36 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment in profit forecasts due to reduced sales scale [8].

Core Viewpoint - Resilience is identified as a crucial strength for real estate companies to navigate new industry cycles and environments, with New城控股 demonstrating stability and continuous progress through its "residential + commercial" dual-driven strategy [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, New城控股 achieved a revenue of 89 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 752 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.07%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 870 million yuan, up 183.07% [2] - The overall gross margin stood at 19.80%, while the average financing cost decreased by 28 basis points to 5.92%, indicating stable and improving core financial metrics [2] - The company recorded a contract sales amount of approximately 40.17 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 5.39 million square meters, and a collection amount of 41.1 billion yuan, achieving a collection rate of 102% [2] Cash Flow and Debt Management - As of the end of the reporting period, New城控股 had a cash balance of 10.296 billion yuan, ensuring ample liquidity. The net debt ratio was 52.44%, maintaining a low level [3] - The operating cash flow net amount was 1.512 billion yuan, marking seven consecutive years of positive operating cash flow, providing sufficient space for development [3] - The company successfully repaid 5.262 billion yuan of bonds in the domestic and international markets in 2024, showcasing strong creditworthiness [3] Commercial Operations - New城控股's commercial operations generated a total revenue of 12.8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, exceeding the annual target of 12.5 billion yuan [2] - The proportion of commercial management income rose to 13.52% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 70.17% from property leasing and management [5] - The company opened 15 new 吾悦广场 locations, expanding its commercial footprint to 173 integrated projects, with a total commercial area of 16.01 million square meters and an occupancy rate of 97.97% [5] Future Outlook - New城控股 plans to achieve a commercial operation revenue of 14 billion yuan in 2025 and aims to open five new 吾悦广场 locations [6] - The company has upgraded its commercial management division to 新城吾悦商业管理集团有限公司, introducing a new operational philosophy to adapt to changing consumer markets [6] - The establishment of 新城建管, a platform for real estate construction and management, has shown potential, managing over 100 projects and achieving a national layout [6] Industry Trends - The industry is shifting towards reliance on internal growth and self-sustaining business models, moving away from debt-driven strategies, with New城控股 exemplifying this approach through low leverage and strong operational cash flow [7]