截至2025年11月3日，公司股价13.99元，对应PE（动态）24.30倍、PB 0.40倍，显著低于 房地产 行业中 位估值（PE 31.08倍、PB 0.68倍）。公司商业地产业务表现亮眼，形成稳定现金流支撑；政策宽松背景 下住宅开发业务有望边际改善；债务结构持续优化，偿债压力可控。 2025年以来，房地产行业政策持续加码宽松：中央层面强调推进城中村改造、巩固市场止跌回稳态势； 地方层面优化限购政策、发放购房补贴、降低首付比例等。同时，监管层加大对民营房企的融资支持， 新城控股作为稳健型民企，已顺利度过债务刚兑高峰期，2025年上半年境外子公司成功发行1.6亿美元 债券，信用资质获国际投资者认可。 综合 估值、基本面及行业趋势，给予"谨慎买入"评级，目标价18.50元，对应2026年PB 0.68倍，存在 32.2%上涨空间。 ???一、公司核心概况：商业+住宅双轮驱动，稳健属性凸显 ? 1.1 基本盘：深耕地产二十载，股权结构集中稳定 新城控股 成立于1993年，2015年登陆上交所，是国内少数实现"住宅开发+商业运营"双轮驱动的头部房 企。截至2025年三季度末，公司总资产2806.73亿元，归母所 ...

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has experienced a significant decline in contract sales and revenue due to the ongoing shrinkage of its real estate development business, leading to a strategic shift towards commercial operations [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - From January to October, New City Holdings reported a cumulative contract sales amount of 16.468 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.2%, with a total sales area of 2.1506 million square meters [1]. - In October alone, the company achieved contract sales of approximately 1.419 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 191,500 square meters [1]. - The total sales for the "golden September and silver October" period were less than 3 billion yuan, placing the company 41st in the rankings of real estate companies by sales in the first ten months [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, New City Holdings reported operating revenue of 34.371 billion yuan, down 33.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 974 million yuan, a decrease of 33.05% [2]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to reduced delivery income from real estate projects and a drop in gross profit margins [2]. Commercial Operations - In response to the shrinking residential business, New City Holdings has shifted its focus to commercial operations, achieving a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 1.186 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.65% [2][3]. - Cumulatively, the commercial operating revenue from January to October reached 11.696 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.49% [2]. Strategic Shift - The company has decided to separate cash flow management for commercial operations and development projects, with a focus on commercial business as a foundational element for future growth [4]. - Currently, real estate development accounts for about two-thirds of revenue, while commercial operations make up one-third, indicating ongoing pressure on future revenue due to the contraction in real estate development [4]. Debt Management - New City Holdings has faced increasing debt repayment pressure, issuing high-interest bonds to ensure full repayment of maturing debts [5][6]. - The company issued three rounds of high-interest bonds at a rate of 11.88% to address upcoming debt obligations, including a $250 million overseas bond due in October and a 2 billion yuan medium-term note due in December [6]. Investor Communication - During a recent earnings call, the chairman emphasized the company's commitment to maintaining positive operating cash flow and leveraging policy support to optimize financing structures and costs [7]. - Concerns were raised by investors regarding high accounts payable and potential audit issues, to which the chairman assured that the company has considered various factors in assessing its ongoing viability and does not foresee delisting risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings reported a decline in both revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, while commercial operation income increased, indicating a shift in focus amid ongoing challenges in the residential sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, New City Holdings achieved operating revenue of 34.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a reduction in the scale of development business turnover, with a completed area of 3.5 million square meters, down 59.8% year-on-year [3]. - Total assets decreased from 534.2 billion yuan in 2021 to 307.2 billion yuan in 2024, with liabilities reduced from 437.2 billion yuan to 224.5 billion yuan, indicating a significant contraction of over 200 billion yuan in three years [3]. Debt Management - New City Holdings is approaching the end of its debt repayment peak, with only two debts remaining due in 2025: a $250 million overseas bond maturing in October and a 2 billion yuan medium-term note maturing in December [3]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company’s payable construction funds were 38.39 billion yuan, down from 45.27 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, reflecting a reduction in cash outflow pressure [3]. Financing and Market Position - New City Holdings has successfully navigated financing channels, issuing two medium-term notes totaling 1.9 billion yuan and two unsecured U.S. dollar bonds totaling $4.6 billion in 2025 [4]. - Despite the successful financing, the company faces inventory pressure, with the overall real estate market experiencing a slowdown in sales [4]. Commercial Operations - The company has opened and managed 176 Wuyue Plazas, generating total commercial operation revenue of 10.51 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year, with an average occupancy rate of 97.7% [6]. - New City Holdings is expected to generate approximately 14 billion yuan in taxable rental income and around 13 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, while its market valuation stands at approximately 31.872 billion yuan [6]. Investor Sentiment - Investors express concerns regarding New City Holdings' ability to navigate through economic cycles, especially following recent incidents involving the misuse of funds by major shareholders, which have led to audit complications [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company's self-owned business contribution has improved, leading to an increase in gross profit margin, and a revaluation of the company's worth is expected. Amid a backdrop of accelerating industry downturn, expectations for policy negotiations are gradually rising. The peak debt repayment period for the company has passed, and its financing capabilities continue to recover, which is likely to enhance market risk appetite. The ample land reserves on hand still provide certain guarantees for sales, and the steady growth of self-owned business has become an important source of profit and financing for the company, indicating a potential revaluation of its value [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 34.37 billion yuan (down 33.3%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan (down 33.0%). The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.01 billion yuan (down 31.8%) [6]. Business Operations - The revenue contribution from self-owned business has increased, raising the gross profit margin, while the decrease in development completion scale has suppressed revenue performance. The company completed an area of 3.5 million square meters (down 59.8%), leading to a year-on-year revenue decline of 33.3% to 34.37 billion yuan. The gross profit margin is expected to remain under pressure, but the expansion of high-profit property leasing and management business has effectively countered this [13]. Sales and Market Conditions - Sales remain under pressure, with the company achieving sales of 15.1 billion yuan (down 52.7%) and an area of 1.96 million square meters (down 54.6%) in the first three quarters of 2025. The average price was 7,700 yuan per square meter (up 4.1%). The supply quality and quantity are under pressure, and the overall sales performance is still constrained [13]. Self-Owned Business Growth - The self-owned business has shown steady growth, with the number of operational and managed shopping malls reaching 176, and the total leasable area of self-owned properties at 9.7 million square meters (up 4.6%). The average occupancy rate is 97.7% (up 0.1 percentage points). The total revenue from commercial operations for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.51 billion yuan (up 10.8%), achieving 75.1% of the annual target [13]. Future Outlook - The company expects a continued upward trend in gross profit margin due to the sustained growth in high-profit commercial operations. The estimated net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are projected to be 810 million, 1.13 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.4, 28.3, and 24.4 times [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 19 yuan for 2026 [2][8]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in residential sales, with total revenue for the first nine months of 2025 at 34.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.974 billion yuan, down 33.05% [2][8]. - The commercial operation revenue showed steady growth, with a total income of approximately 10.511 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.82% [8]. - The company has diversified its financing channels, with interest-bearing debt of approximately 52.3 billion yuan as of mid-2025, and a net debt ratio of 53.4% [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 88.999 billion yuan, 63.948 billion yuan, 57.387 billion yuan, and 54.139 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -25.3%, -28.1%, -10.3%, and -5.7% [4][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.752 billion yuan in 2024A, decreasing to 0.637 billion yuan in 2025E, then increasing to 0.831 billion yuan in 2026E, and 0.952 billion yuan in 2027E, with growth rates of 2.1%, -15.4%, 30.5%, and 14.5% respectively [4][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.33 yuan in 2024A, 0.28 yuan in 2025E, 0.37 yuan in 2026E, and 0.42 yuan in 2027E [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock price appreciation exceeding 15% over the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, also down 33.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in the scale of development project turnover, while the sales price per square meter has shown a recovery, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its accounts payable pressure, with construction payables decreasing from 45.27 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 38.39 billion yuan by Q3 2025 [2]. - The operational performance of the company's commercial properties, particularly the Wuyue Plaza, has shown a double-digit growth in rental income, reaching 9.81 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - The company is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, stable profits from commercial real estate, and a gradual reduction in losses from residential development [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 63.21 billion yuan, 54.63 billion yuan, and 51.30 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 925 million yuan, 1.13 billion yuan, and 1.49 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the next three years are projected to be 34.54x, 28.33x, and 21.53x, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [4]. Liquidity and Debt Management - The company has effectively eliminated liquidity risks, having issued two domestic notes and two USD bonds within the year, demonstrating a strong financing capability [3]. - The peak debt repayment period has passed, with only a small amount of debt maturing in late 2025, which further alleviates financial pressure [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Winter Stockpiling Festival" organized by New城控股集团 at Urumqi's Mi Dong Wu Yue Plaza aims to provide a cultural and shopping experience for local residents, featuring 19 days of activities and promotions that blend national sentiment, cultural experiences, and practical shopping benefits [1][12]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The festival includes a variety of activities such as clothing, food, and entertainment, designed to create a warm and joyful atmosphere for attendees [1]. - Consumers can enjoy multiple benefits during the festival, including gift giveaways for purchases over a certain amount, a lottery for prizes like the Honor 400Pro smartphone, and group buying discounts on clothing and dining [2][4]. - A total of 37 well-known clothing brands are participating in the winter clothing season, offering consumers a mix of warmth and fashion, while 17 popular dining brands are providing culinary delights at discounted prices [4][9]. Group 2: Special Offers and Activities - The cinema at Mi Dong Wu Yue Plaza is offering a couple's movie package for only 49.9 yuan, enhancing the romantic experience for couples during the winter season [6]. - The festival features various interactive events, including wrestling competitions for students, a youth singing contest, chess tournaments, and esports competitions, allowing participants to enjoy a lively winter atmosphere [9]. Group 3: Corporate Philosophy and Future Plans - New城控股集团 emphasizes its commitment to creating a quality space for community gatherings, aiming to enhance consumer happiness through well-planned cultural and promotional activities [12][13]. - The company has expanded its presence significantly, with 205 urban complexes under the Wu Yue brand across 141 major cities in China, and aims to continue its growth and innovation in the commercial sector [13][14]. - The strategic focus on "stability and progress, regional deepening, operational priority, and technology empowerment" reflects the company's long-term vision for sustainable development and customer satisfaction [14].

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is experiencing a surge during the extended National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025, with significant activity in both first-tier cities and county-level commercial complexes [1][2] - New City Holdings' (新城控股) Wuyue Plaza locations in Ruian, Zhejiang, and Xiaogan, Hubei, have become popular consumer destinations, showcasing the potential of county-level consumption [1][2] - The company's strategic focus on county-level markets and its operational capabilities are highlighted by the positive media coverage received [1][2] Financial Performance - New City Holdings reported a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 10.511 billion yuan for the first nine months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.82% [1][2] - The commercial sector has emerged as a crucial growth engine for New City Holdings amid a challenging real estate market [1][2] Cultural and Experiential Initiatives - Wuyue Plaza in Xiaogan has integrated local cultural elements, such as hosting large-scale interactive events centered around national-level cultural relics, which significantly boosted sales and foot traffic during the holiday period [2] - The company has successfully implemented innovative cultural and immersive experiences across multiple county-level Wuyue Plaza locations, enhancing consumer engagement and driving local economic activity [2]

Core Insights - New City Holdings (601155) demonstrates counter-cyclical growth amidst deep adjustments in the commercial real estate sector, indicating a profound change in its business operation logic [1] - The company introduced the "Wuyue Management Five-Step Method" and the "Yuelian Plan" during its annual conference, signaling a strategic shift from scale expansion to quality symbiosis [1][3] Industry Trends - The annual conference featured key insights from industry leaders, highlighting the need for commercial real estate to accurately grasp consumer demand changes amid a backdrop of consumption upgrading and segmentation [2] - Data analysis presented at the conference indicated that leading commercial operators have seen rental fee scales grow, with rental growth rates outpacing market expectations [2] Company Performance - In the first half of the year, New City Holdings achieved a total commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion yuan, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase [3] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, increasing its share of total gross profit from 57.21% to 77.06% compared to the same period last year, underscoring the commercial segment's role as a vital profit pillar [3] Strategic Initiatives - The "Wuyue Management Five-Step Method" focuses on five dimensions: building good spaces, organizing content, finding brands, increasing sales, and sharing profits, systematically constructing New City's operational framework [4] - The company has invested 400 million yuan in 88 projects for space renovation and quality enhancement, emphasizing the importance of quality space experiences for consumer retention and brand empowerment [5] New Business Models - The "Yuelian Plan" aims to create a sustainable resource connection and value co-creation platform by selecting quality brands and core agents, shifting from one-way recruitment to a three-way win model [5][6] - The first phase of the "Yuelian Plan" will involve the careful selection of 10 certified brands and 80 core agents, reflecting a focus on partnership quality rather than quantity [6] Future Growth Strategies - New City Holdings has established a presence in 141 cities with 205 integrated projects, with 175 already opened, covering over 16 million square meters [7] - The company is transitioning from a focus on scale growth to quality symbiosis, with plans for further refinement in residential and commercial operations [8] Regional Development - The launch of the "Gold Standard Wuyue Plaza" in Changzhou marks a significant step in enhancing commercial quality, with high foot traffic and sales figures reported shortly after opening [8] - Regional deepening strategies, such as the introduction of new Wuyue Plazas in Shandong, are expected to drive future growth through scale effects and brand synergy [9]

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has successfully issued a second tranche of medium-term notes for 2025, indicating a recovery in its financing capabilities amid an improving environment for real estate companies [2][3] Group 1: Financing Activities - On September 25, New City Holdings issued medium-term notes worth 900 million yuan with a subscription multiple of 1.5 times and a coupon rate of 3.29% for a 5-year term [2] - Earlier in August, the company issued another medium-term note of 1 billion yuan with a subscription multiple of 2.28 times and a lower coupon rate of 2.68% [2] - On September 23, a wholly-owned subsidiary, New City Global, issued $160 million in senior secured notes with a 2-year term, backed by New City Holdings and its parent company [2] - In June, New City Development successfully issued $300 million in senior unsecured bonds, marking a significant return to overseas capital market financing for private real estate companies [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New City Holdings reported revenue of 22.1 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 895 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.85%, an increase of 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company maintained a cash balance of 10.296 billion yuan and a low net debt ratio of 52.44%, indicating a strong financial position [3] - Operating cash flow for the period was 1.512 billion yuan, reflecting efficient cash management [3] Group 3: Commercial Operations - New City Holdings achieved commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 11.8% year-on-year growth [3] - The gross profit from property leasing and management reached 4.573 billion yuan, increasing its contribution to total gross profit from 57.21% to 77.06%, with a gross margin of 71.20% [3] - The occupancy rate of Wuyue Plaza remained high at 97.81%, setting a benchmark for operational efficiency in the industry [3] Group 4: Market Confidence - Analysts from China Galaxy noted that New City Holdings has improved its sales prices and achieved a cash recovery rate exceeding 100%, indicating effective operations [3] - The company has maintained a strong commercial performance with double-digit growth in commercial revenue and high occupancy rates [3] - Moody's upgraded the rating outlook for New City Development to positive in June, reflecting confidence in the company's performance and stable financial structure [3]