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政策端转向修复楼市内生动力
李宇嘉(广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员) 受到行业供求关系、外部经贸环境、收入和就业预期等基本面的综合影响,从市场降幅收窄到探底、触 底和止跌,最后到市场回稳,这是一个较长的过程,中间会有反复,也是正常的现象。但是,止跌回稳 趋势是不变的。 首先,同比来看,无论是新房还是二手房,从去年四季度到现在,70城房价同比指数均持续收窄。其 次,连续3年半的回调后,新房销售面积和金额的规模,目前来看分别已降至2012年、2015年以来的水 平,今年的跌幅已到个位数。 考虑到拆迁安置、"卖旧买新"的改善需求、城镇化对新房的需求等,未来新房交易继续大幅度下探的空 间不大,市场探底和触底的趋势不改。再次,政策开始转向修复基本面,包括对生育、教育的扶持,对 兜底保障、就业保障、离退休保障的扶持,城市更新对住房和社区补短板等,都在修复消费内生动力, 减缓二手房挂牌、增强新房消费动力,这是房价止跌回稳的关键。 从同比来看,新房和二手住房价格指数跌幅均持续收窄。其中,新房价格指数同比从上月的-3.7%收窄 至-3.4%,跌幅连续9个月收窄。其中,一线城市7月份新房价格指数同比跌幅降至-1.1%,也是2024年3 月份以来的最低跌幅 ...
人才房日光 10万+ 7成,深圳楼市又行了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 20:59
Core Insights - The article highlights the contrasting dynamics in Shenzhen's real estate market, showcasing the success of affordable talent housing and the high demand for luxury properties [6][7][8] Group 1: Talent Housing Market - The "Shenzhen Longgang District" witnessed a successful launch of the "Shenzhen Railway Yuyun Jing" project, with 287 talent housing units sold out, marking the third consecutive sell-out since September 2024 [1][3] - The average price of these units is only 27,800 yuan per square meter, attracting 1,844 families with a subscription ratio of 1:6.4, indicating strong demand from first-time homebuyers [3][6] - The project features a high practical rate of 76.5% in its unit designs, which has become a key selling point for attracting talent [3][6] Group 2: Luxury Housing Market - The "Huanxi Dianju" project in Nanshan, known as Shenzhen's "most prestigious street," saw 238 units sold on its opening day, achieving a sales rate of 71% with an average price of 100,000 yuan per square meter [4][6] - The project's location contributes significantly to its appeal, as it is situated in an area that generates over 400 billion yuan in GDP and houses major companies like Tencent and DJI [6][7] - The luxury market is characterized by a severe supply-demand imbalance due to a decade-long halt in new residential land supply, leading to soaring prices in the surrounding areas [6][7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Shenzhen's real estate market is exhibiting a "dumbbell" structure, with affordable talent housing performing well while luxury properties continue to appreciate due to their scarcity [6][7][8] - The dual-track system of "talent housing and commercial housing" is expected to deepen structural development, alleviating housing anxiety for lower-income groups while maintaining the resilience of the luxury market [8] - The ongoing success of affordable housing projects signals a positive trend, but there is a need to monitor inventory pressures in non-core areas [8]