Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On March 26, the closing price of the main BU2606 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 4,543 yuan/ton, up 182 yuan/ton or 4.17% from the previous settlement price, with a position of 275,580 lots, a net increase of 34,506 lots, and a trading volume of 1,016,787 lots, a net increase of 113,555 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: 4,526 - 4,690 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4,250 - 4,400 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,450 - 4,600 yuan/ton in South China, and 4,450 - 4,590 yuan/ton in East China [1] - Spot prices in the northwest and east China remained stable, while prices in other regions rose to varying degrees. Tight supply in some areas, strong supply - side support, and the rebound of international oil prices led to a resurgence of market sentiment [1] - Due to the change in market expectations regarding the Iran situation, the emotional premium fluctuates. However, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and the supply - side contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [1] - Due to raw material shortages, the scheduled production of domestic asphalt refineries is expected to decline significantly in April. If terminal consumption rebounds seasonally or remains stable, the expectation of inventory reduction is strong, and the market structure is still supported [1] - The futures market may be repeatedly disturbed by news in the short term, and both long and short positions lack a safety margin, so caution is needed [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, mainly on the sidelines [2] - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads at low prices [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures and Data - Figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China) [3][12][5][8] - Figures related to asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread) [3][25][20] - Figures related to asphalt futures trading volume and open interest (unilateral, main contract) [3][27] - Figures related to asphalt production (domestic weekly, independent refineries, Shandong, East China, South China, North China) [3][32][34] - Figures related to asphalt consumption (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel) [3][43][45] - Figures related to asphalt inventory (refinery, social) [3][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: PL01 - 02 short at high prices; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, a PDH plant in Shandong was overhauled ahead of schedule during the holiday, and there are plans for shutdown and overhaul of PDH plants in Bohua and Hebei Haiwei after the holiday. The restart of Ningbo Jinfa's Phase I PDH was postponed to the end of October, providing support to the supply side. The spot price of propylene in Shandong stopped falling and rose slightly, while the futures price was still dragged down by the cost side [2]. - On the demand side, downstream factories reduced their pre - holiday inventory replenishment and were still constrained by cost pressure. The inventory replenishment demand was poor, and they mainly made rigid purchases at low prices. The low propylene price drove some PP plants that purchase externally to restart before the holiday. Although some phenol - acetone and propylene oxide plants are expected to shut down, the demand for polypropylene, the main downstream product, may increase. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side [2]. - On the cost side, international oil prices continued to be under pressure due to weak demand. The official price of Saudi CP in October was significantly lowered, and the price of propane in the external market dropped sharply, weakening the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures include propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil production capacity utilization rate of major refineries [15][23][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures cover the difference between FOB in South Korea and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Japan and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - The report shows the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][41][44] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]