投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-06 美伊谈判前后油价延续⾼波动，烧碱下 ⾏持续性待观察 央视新闻报道，美伊谈判将于2月6日在阿曼举行，谈判前油价高波动 仍在延续，本轮核问题谈判结果将对短期油价形成方向性指引。路透显示 海外柴油裂解价差重回弱势，炼厂毛利相对承压。路透报道俄罗斯对中国 出口的原油折扣幅度继续加大，市场存在对印度购买减量的担忧。伊朗及 俄罗斯地缘局势、OPEC+二季度产量预期等供应端因素仍是2月原油市场关 注的核心，目前地缘溢价仍存，短期重点关注美伊谈判动向及印度对俄罗 斯石油购买进展。 板块逻辑： 油价高波动下化工品市场有所分化，PX及PTA存在终端需求支撑不足 的阶段性压力，纯苯及苯乙烯在3月后的去库预期支撑下价格震荡偏强。 近期液氯价格上调，烧碱下行空间打开，但考虑节前液氯价格可能向下调 整，烧碱以震荡看待。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：沥青原料供应扰动有望缓解 高硫燃油：燃油期价等待美伊谈判进展 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油震荡 甲醇：沿海利空显著，甲醇区间震荡 尿素：预售订单支撑，尿素震荡整理 乙二醇：近端到货偏 ...

板块逻辑： 路透数据显示原油仍处于库存压力显现、供应仍偏过剩格局下的地缘 溢价摇摆阶段。强预期对纯苯、苯乙烯持续形成支撑，在化工品中表现偏 强。短期PVC存"抢出口"、国内供应端政策预期提振，财联社报道称印 尼煤炭出口扰动，亦对PVC形成支撑，但基本面压力未扭转，盘面或先扬 后抑，整体偏震荡。 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：沥青原料供应扰动有望缓解 高硫燃油：燃油期价跟随原油走强 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油震荡 甲醇：港口库存重回去库，海外局势偶有波折，甲醇区间震荡 尿素：收单好转情绪升温，尿素震荡整理 乙二醇：近端到货偏多，价格承压运行 PX：价格止跌企稳，商谈回暖，PX短期震荡整理 PTA：强预期弱现实，价格区间整理 短纤：下游放假停车，需求清淡 瓶片：库存结构优化，瓶片效益维持强势 丙烯：现货压力不大，PL震荡 PP：节前下游心态谨慎，PP回落后震荡 塑料：上游开工小幅提升，塑料回落后震荡 苯乙烯：季节性累库或开启，但苯乙烯利润不易压缩 PVC：煤炭进口扰动，PVC反弹谨慎 烧碱：需求阶段改善，烧碱暂观望 展望：美伊关系动向支撑原油价格，化工震荡思路对待。 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦升级，互相大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The glass industry is currently experiencing a situation where supply has decreased significantly, demand is weak, and inventory shows differentiation. The pressure on inventory after the Spring Festival is relatively high, and more supply clearance is needed. For the纯碱 industry, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand continues, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply - side [28][38] Summary by Directory 01 Glass Supply - Recently, there have been many production cuts in the glass industry. Multiple glass production lines in different regions such as Central China, South China, and East China are scheduled for cold repair from the end of 2025 to early 2026, with a total reduction in daily melting capacity. As of December 5, 2025, the total daily melting capacity was 155,965 tons, a 3% decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with a reduction of 4,300 tons [4][7] Demand - There is an expected difference in demand. Downstream customers adopt a back - to - back purchasing model without stockpiling. Demand has declined, with fewer orders. The deep - processing order level is also affected [13] Inventory - Inventory shows differentiation. After the reduction in supply, manufacturers' inventory has shown differences. The inventory decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline next week. However, the upstream inventory reduction is mainly driven by speculative demand from the middle - stream. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory reduction situation [17] Month - to - Month and Basis - The increase in the futures market has strengthened basis trading and driven up upstream prices. The downstream in Shahe has started to participate, but the sustainability is limited. The month - to - month spread remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [24][26] Market Outlook - Based on a 6% decline in apparent demand, if the current supply remains unchanged, the inventory can be maintained at a reasonably high level. However, considering the relatively high middle - stream inventory, the pattern of squeezing profits will not change. There is an expected seasonal inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, and there is little opportunity for profit. If the profit squeeze continues, the post - festival pressure will not be too great. Theoretically, as long as the supply continues to decrease, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the second half of this year [29] 02纯碱 Supply - The production of soda ash has increased, mainly due to the increased production of the second - phase project in Alxa. Several enterprises and projects are expected to be put into production in the future, including Hubei Xindu Chemical, Hubei Jinjiang New Materials, etc., which will further increase the supply [32][35] Demand - The pattern of downstream customers squeezing profits in the soda ash industry remains unchanged [36] Market Situation - The pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the soda ash industry continues. The spot price remains low, and the month - to - month spread remains weak. Attention should also be paid to the production reduction situation in the future [38][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - Short - term cost support (stable coal prices) and de - stocking expectations drive the market to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. The port inventory is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in the first quarter, while the inland market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand [3]. Polyolefins - For PP, the valuation of marginal devices is still low, but there are few planned overhauls. If there are no overhauls from January to March, the pressure on the 05 contract will be relatively large. For PE, the supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving. Overall, the supply increases and the demand decreases in January, and the overall pressure is still relatively large [6]. Urea - The short - term high - supply pattern is difficult to change. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material procurement intention is suppressed. The inventory continues to be destocked, which supports the price. The market is boosted by export expectations and geopolitical impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have weak short - term drivers and continue to oscillate at a low level. Styrene is supported in the short term but has limited rebound space due to downstream resistance and cost factors [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to show a trend of weakening steadily. PVC prices are expected to oscillate and weaken due to the excess supply - demand pattern [10]. Natural Rubber - There is a long - short game in the short - term natural rubber market, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions [11]. LPG No clear overall view provided in the document about the future trend of LPG. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a situation of weak downstream demand and increasing inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Glass has different situations in different regions, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening demand [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA are expected to have a weaker supply - demand situation in the first quarter. MEG has a large inventory accumulation expectation. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand pattern. Bottle - chip supply and demand both decrease, and it follows the cost side [17]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the medium - and long - term supply surplus pressure suppresses oil prices. It is expected that Brent oil prices will fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel in the short term [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased slightly, while the MA59 spread increased significantly. The prices of some spot varieties increased, and regional spreads decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, and some downstream operating rates increased, while the MTO device operating rate decreased [3]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased slightly. Some spot prices increased, and the base differentials changed [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, while the PE social inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased. The PP device operating rate decreased slightly, and the powder operating rate increased [6]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, and the spot price increased. The spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory and port inventories decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production increased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some related products changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed, and the domestic pure benzene supply increased [9]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries changed, and the overall supply and demand pattern of pure benzene was weak [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot decreased to varying degrees, and the export profits changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand of downstream industries was weak [10]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some spot varieties increased, and the base differential and inter - month spreads changed [11]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased, and the warehouse - out rate and warehouse - in rate changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in some regions changed, and the tire operating rates decreased [11]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2602, PG2603, and PG2604 increased slightly, and the spreads between contracts and the base differential changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio decreased [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures and spot changed slightly, and the base differential increased [16]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory and soda ash factory inventories increased, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output decreased, and the downstream demand for soda ash was weak [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some upstream raw materials changed [17]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of some polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees changed [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the overall polyester industry operating rate situation was complex [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the spreads between contracts and different varieties changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between contracts changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed [18].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery downstream demand remains strong, driving prices higher due to inventory depletion, while cobalt products continue to rise but with slower downstream follow-up, indicating a potential slowdown in price increases [1][2]. Lithium Sector - The lithium sector is experiencing a peak demand season, with inventory depletion pushing prices up. The weekly price of lithium carbonate in Wuxi rose by 1.32% to 76,500 CNY/ton, while the price in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4.25% to 78,900 CNY/ton [1]. - Lithium concentrate prices reached 881 USD/ton, an increase of 35 USD/ton compared to the previous period, reflecting strong demand from downstream buyers [1][2]. - The production of battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged between 74,500 and 76,330 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.79% [2]. Cobalt Sector - Cobalt prices are experiencing upward pressure, but the actual demand from the downstream is limited, leading to a slower price increase. The average price of electrolytic cobalt rose by 6.96% to between 400,000 and 415,000 CNY/ton [3]. - Cobalt salt prices are stabilizing as downstream acceptance of current prices is low, focusing mainly on inventory digestion and essential replenishment [3]. - The integration of cobalt-nickel precursor production enhances competitive barriers for cobalt companies, as they extend their reach into the new energy sector [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The overall market is witnessing a strong demand for lithium, supported by the rapid growth of power batteries and a thriving energy storage market, with the operating rate of downstream manufacturers continuously increasing [2]. - Despite the strong demand, the supply side is also seeing new production lines coming online, which may exert pressure on prices in the latter part of November [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend. PP's maintenance losses continue to increase, PE's domestic maintenance has peaked, and PE's import is expected to be low. The weighted valuation has recovered significantly, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. Short - term attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating strongly, mainly due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Although the increase in US EIA inventory data is bearish, it is temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical risks and peak - season demand. Geopolitical risks have limited continuity in disturbing the market, and oil prices are likely to enter a wide - range oscillation after rising. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy [6]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol market is supported by centralized maintenance in July, with limited short - term downside. The port market faces dual pressures: the resumption of Iranian plants and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which is expected to lead to a slight inventory build - up in July and stronger price suppression [31]. Urea Industry - The core drivers of the fundamentals and macro - news are the market confidence boost from the Indian tender price. Although there is no follow - up substantial news on exports, the market has short - term expectations of export benefits. The short - term market shows an oscillating upward trend, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed, and long positions should not be overly chased [36]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Under the influence of PXN repair, domestic plant maintenance delays, and overseas supply recovery, PX is under pressure, but considering new PTA plant commissioning and other factors, the supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Short - term long positions can be considered around 6600 for PX09. - **PTA**: The supply - demand is expected to weaken, but cost support is strong. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - term long positions can be considered below 4700. - **MEG**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is expected to be in balance in July and build up inventory from August to September. Short - term attention should be paid to the 4400 resistance level for EG09. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to expand the processing margin when it is low. - **Bottle - chip**: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is gradually recovering. The absolute price follows the cost. [41] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: It has rebounded recently, supported by crude oil and styrene prices. However, due to high import expectations and high port inventories, its upward potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread. - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken, with increasing port inventories. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and a favorable commodity atmosphere, the increase is limited. Short positions can be considered around 7500 for EB08 [45]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices - L2601 closed at 7254, up 29 (0.40%); L2509 at 7278, up 33 (0.46%); PP2601 at 7034, up 28 (0.40%); PP2509 at 7078, up 33 (0.47%) [1]. Spreads - L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 4 (20.00%); PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (12.82%) [1]. Spot Prices - East China PP wire drawing spot was 7100, up 10 (0.14%); North China LDPE film material spot was 7170, unchanged [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 million tons (12.48%); PE social inventory increased by 1.04 million tons (2.05%). PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.11 million tons (1.95%); PP trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons (3.21%) [1]. Crude Oil Industry Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.06%); WTI was at $68.15, down $0.23 (- 0.34%). Brent - WTI spread increased by $0.23 (12.71%) [6]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB was at 219.05 cents/gallon, up 0.26 cents (0.12%); NYM ULSD was at 241.14 cents/gallon, up 0.22 cents (0.09%) [6]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread was at $23.85, up $0.34 (1.44%); European gasoline crack spread was unchanged at $14.13 [6]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2434, up 14 (0.58%); MA2509 at 2372, down 1 (- 0.04%). MA91 spread decreased by 15 (31.91%) [31]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.5% (1.31%); methanol port inventory increased by 4.5 million tons (6.72%); methanol social inventory increased by 5.0% (4.86%) [31]. Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.5% (- 3.19%); overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 10.7% (20.19%) [31]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract closed at 1736, up 13 (0.75%); 05 contract at 1736, up 9 (0.52%); 09 contract at 1770, up 7 (0.40%) [33]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small - grain) urea was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 (1.10%); Henan (small - grain) was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 30 (1.66%) [37]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.20 million tons (1.03%); urea production plant operating rate increased by 0.86% (1.03%) [37]. Polyester Industry Chain Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6700 yuan/ton, down 60 (- 0.9%); FDY150/96 price was 6975 yuan/ton, unchanged [41]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at $10610/ton, unchanged; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 0.8% [41]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4750 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 1.0%); TA2509 closed at 4718 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [41]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 58.0 million tons, down 3.5 million tons (6.4%); MEG to - arrive expectation was 9.6 million tons, up 8 [41]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.1% (1.5%); China PX operating rate increased by 3.3% [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (September) was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.1%); CFR Japan naphtha was at $598/ton, up 11 (1.9%) [45]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot was 7640 yuan/ton, up 60 (0.8%); EB2508 closed at 7350 yuan/ton, up 74 (1.0%) [45]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 17.50 million tons, up 1.10 (6.7%); styrene East China port inventory was 13.30 million tons, up 3.67 (38.1%) [45].