单边：观望，短期成本端支撑回升，但供需驱动有限，或区间震荡为主，等待边际装置检修兑现 跨期：无 丙烯日报 | 2026-01-06 现货交投好转，盘面仍偏承压 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5821元/吨（-14），丙烯华东现货价5850元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5775元/吨（+45）， 丙烯华东基差29元/吨（-36），丙烯华北基差-154元/吨（-79）。丙烯开工率75%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR212美元/吨（+6），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR30美元/吨（+0），进口利润-310元/吨（-2），厂内库存47790吨（+1780）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率38%（+0.77%），生产利润-25元/吨（-45）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（-1%），生产利润-159 元/吨（-82）；正丁醇开工率81%（+1%），生产利润458元/吨（-27）；辛醇开工率82%（-3%），生产利润820元/吨（-32）； 丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润322元/吨（+36）；丙烯腈开工率78%（-2%），生产利润-817元/吨（-100）；酚 酮开工率81%（+3%）， ...

丙烯月报 | 2026-01-04 需求跟进有限，关注PDH装置检修兑现情况 市场要闻与重要数据 价格方面：截至2025年12月31日，丙烯主力合约收盘价5835元/吨（+42），丙烯华东现货价5900元/吨（+0），丙烯 山东现货价5715元/吨（+0），丙烯华东基差65元/吨（-42），丙烯山东基差-120元/吨（-52）。布伦特原油主力合约 收盘价61美元/桶（+0），WTI主力合约收盘价57美元/桶（+0），丙烷CP掉期M1价格507美元/吨（-2）。 供应情况：12月中国丙烯月度产量545.75万吨，同比+14.33%；丙烯开工率75.00%（+0.89%）；其中PDH制丙烯开 工率76.36%（+1.36%），甲醇制丙烯开工率87.81%（-0.51%），主营炼厂开工率75.11%（+0.00%）。 新增投产方面，巴斯夫广东50万吨新增产能投产预期兑现，一季度投产压力相对偏小，但2026 年仍是国内丙烯投 产周期，全年新增产能预计达 736 万吨，名义产能增速为 9.3%（按投产时间加权实际产能增速约在 4.4%），明显 低于 2025 年产能增速。 存量装置检修看，1月部分PDH装置存停工预期， ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2011】1292号 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 2025年12月26日 | | | | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 12月24日 | 12月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 15100 | 14850 | 250 | 1.68% | | | 全乳基差 | -550 | -440 | -110 | -25.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14800 | 14750 | 50 | 0.34% | | | 非标价差 | -850 | -540 | -310 | -57.41% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 50.85 | 50.80 | 0.05 | 0.10% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.70 | 55.20 | -0.50 | -0.91% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 原料:市场主流价: ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The futures prices of chemical products rose across the board yesterday. Driven by market sentiment, the olefin sector at the bottom rebounded. The strengthening support from the cost side also contributed to the rise. However, the supply - demand contradiction of polyolefins has not been alleviated, which may continue to suppress the market prices [3] - For PE, the supply remains high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and large de - stocking pressure. Although the cost support is strengthening, the supply - demand contradiction continues to suppress the price [3] - For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamental variables are limited. The supply is still under pressure, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to the cost - side disturbances and supply - side maintenance changes [4] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6408元/吨（+112），PP主力合约收盘价为6278元/吨（+120），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+20），LL华北基差为 - 208元/吨（-112），LL华东基差为 - 38元/吨（-112），PP华东基差为 - 138元/吨（-100） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为 - 109.2元/吨（-53.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 599.2元/吨（-53.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 809.1元/吨（-95.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the report 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 157.4元/吨（-29.9），PP进口利润为 - 301.5元/吨（-29.9），PP出口利润为 - 2.6美元/吨（+3.8） [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the report Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Although the market rebounds driven by short - term sentiment, the game between the cost side and the supply - demand contradiction leads to insufficient upward drive, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Inter - variety: Shorten the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-23 供应端增量继续压制盘面价格 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5647元/吨（-48），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5890元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差278元/吨（+48），丙烯华北基差4元/吨（+15）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR211美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR53美元/吨（+6），进口利润-324元/吨（-48），厂内库存46560吨（+600）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-2.62%），生产利润-160元/吨（+5）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+0%），生产利润-276 元/吨（-30）；正丁醇开工率78%（+9%），生产利润236元/吨（+65）；辛醇开工率82%（+5%），生产利润487元/吨 （+18）；丙烯酸开工率79%（+0%），生产利润343元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-557元/吨（+44）； 酚酮开工率76%（-4%），生产利润-927元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端山东滨华PDH装置近期逐步提负荷，PDH亏损检修现象短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum market is experiencing a mixed performance due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices supported by high costs and limited supply, while demand remains inconsistent [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) closed at 21,235 CNY, up 115 CNY, with a trading volume of 4,335 lots, a decrease of 297 lots, and an open interest of 17,216 lots, an increase of 26 lots [1]. - The average price for various casting aluminum alloys has increased by 100 CNY, with A356.2 at 23,200 CNY/ton, A380 at 22,800 CNY/ton, ADC12 at 21,600 CNY/ton, ZL102 at 22,600 CNY/ton, and ZLD104 at 22,500 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The macroeconomic environment shows a decrease in inflation pressure, with the U.S. consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year in November, below the expected 3.1%, which has improved market sentiment [1]. - Despite the positive sentiment, the strong U.S. dollar has countered some of the bullish effects, leading to price fluctuations in the casting aluminum market [1]. - The casting aluminum supply and demand are both experiencing reductions, with high aluminum alloy prices and limited production capacity due to losses in the smelting sector [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for casting aluminum is inconsistent, with some support from the automotive sector, but overall market activity remains subdued due to delivery pressures [2]. - Sellers are reluctant to lower prices, which further suppresses the willingness of downstream buyers to replenish stocks, affecting overall market activity [2]. - The price performance of casting aluminum is primarily supported by high costs of scrap aluminum, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation in the future [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)" report predicts that global oil inventories will continue to rise in 2026, with an average price of $55 per barrel. Supply surplus pressure is the core driver of oil prices, and geopolitical factors may cause short - term rebounds but not significant surges [4] - The domestic PX load is stable this week, and there are maintenance plans in January, with expected supply contraction. The PX processing fee continues to rise. The PTA device has little change, and downstream polyester load is high, but terminal demand is weak. PTA prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [4] - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) operating rate has decreased this week, and the spot price has rebounded from the bottom. High inventory is the core factor suppressing prices. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate widely, and in the long - term, there is a downward expectation [5] - Pure benzene has reduced production due to low profits, and its domestic operation has slightly decreased with high port inventories. Downstream demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Styrene has a low operating rate due to many overhauls, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly with the cost side [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - The EIA's "Short - Term Energy Outlook (STEO)" report predicts that global oil inventories will continue to rise in 2026, with an average price of $55 per barrel [4] - The situation in Venezuela is favorable for the geopolitical level, but its oil exports are still normal. There is no new progress in deepening sanctions on the Russian energy sector [4] - Supply surplus pressure is the core driver of oil prices. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term rebounds but not significant surges [4] PX & PTA PX - The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.21%, unchanged from last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a 0.15% decrease from last week [8] - The PX - naphtha spread reached a new high of $290 per barrel this year [8] - Zhejiang Petrochemical has a more than one - month maintenance plan for CDU and reforming in January 2026, and PX is expected to reduce its load by about 10% [8] - In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of PX devices at home and abroad is limited, and the PX operation can be stably maintained at a high level. Terminal demand is expected to stabilize and recover. Overall, supply and demand are stable, and PXN is supported. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices [8] PTA - The PTA spot market price this week is 4,617 yuan per ton, a 16 - yuan decrease from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 73.81%, unchanged from last week [12] - The in - factory inventory days are 3.76 days, a 0.1 - day decrease from last week [12] - In 2026, the domestic PTA capacity is expected to remain stable with no new capacity put into operation [12] - This week's PTA processing fee is 175 yuan per ton, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week. In the long - term, there is a view of inventory accumulation, and the PTA price rebound is limited [12] MEG - The ethylene glycol price has hit a new low this year. The weekly market price is 3,650 yuan per ton, a 4 - yuan decrease from last week [16] - The domestic ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 61.71%, a 0.24% decrease from last week. The coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61%, a 0.16% increase from last week [16] - The production gross profit is - 1,045 yuan per ton, an 84 - yuan increase from last week [16] - An Inner Mongolia 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device has advanced its maintenance plan, and it is expected to stop until January 9, 2026 [16] - This week, the ethylene glycol port inventory has continued to rise, with the East China port inventory reaching 770,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from last week [16] BZ & EB Pure Benzene - The pure benzene operating rate this week is 74.94%, a 0.17% decrease from last week [26] - The pure benzene port inventory has significantly increased to 260,000 tons, unchanged from last week [26] - Downstream PS, ABS, and EPS operating rates are all decreasing year - on - year. The demand resilience needs further observation [26] Styrene - The styrene operating rate is 69.13%, a 0.84% increase from last week, and BZN is stable at about $115 per ton [26] - Styrene has reduced inventory, with the port inventory at 146,800 tons, a 13,800 - ton decrease from last week, and the East China in - factory inventory at 102,300 tons, a 3,400 - ton decrease from last week [26] Polyester - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry this week is 86.9%, a 0.06% increase from last week, with short - fiber inventory reduction and long - filament inventory accumulation [20] - The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 62.90%, a 0.79% decrease from the previous data [20] - The average terminal weaving order days are 11.07 days, a 0.83 - day decrease from last week; the average terminal weaving finished product inventory level is 26.12 days, a 0.54 - day increase from last week [20] - The demand of downstream industries is gradually weakening, the winter fabric stocking is coming to an end, new orders are significantly reduced, and the spring - summer order placement is hesitant [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost-side support for asphalt has weakened, and the market's rebound momentum remains insufficient. The asphalt market's downside may be limited, but a bottom rebound requires more stimulating factors, waiting for the release of winter storage demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,943 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,816 lots, up 6,677 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,841 lots, down 4,034 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,860 - 3,370 yuan/ton; South China, 2,930 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [2] - The rebound of crude oil prices has stalled and retraced, weakening the cost-side support for asphalt, and the futures market has been oscillating in a low range. In the spot market, asphalt prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Northwest, Shandong, East China, and South China declined. The overall asphalt fundamentals remain in a weak supply and demand situation, and future terminal demand may decline further with the cooling. The profits of refineries with quotas are relatively attractive, and local supply competition is fierce, suppressing spot prices. As the winter storage demand has not shown signs of large-scale release, market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal futures has been significant, with the 2601 contract experiencing an 11.4% drop in November, reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan/ton, nearing the lower boundary of the fluctuation range since July [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Coking coal supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to a bearish market outlook. The first round of coking coal price reductions has occurred, and coal prices continue to decline, allowing coking enterprises to maintain profit margins [3] - As of November 28, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 764,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons per day compared to the week of November 7 [1][3] - The average daily output of iron water from 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week, but still higher than the same period last year [3] Market Conditions - The market atmosphere has weakened due to increased supply, with the coking coal auction failure rate rising to 30%-60% in mid to late November. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1510 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the November peak [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has been implemented, with the price at Rizhao Port for premium wet quenching coke at 1620 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price at 1450 yuan/ton, with expectations for further price reductions [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with potential positive signals in December, alongside expectations of production cuts in coal mines at year-end, which may alleviate cost pressures for coking coal [4] - The overall bearish factors in the market are expected to slow down, and the main contract for coking coal may stabilize at the lower end of the fluctuation range [4]