| 橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | | 蔵帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 演员 | 派跌喝 | 电应 | | △南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14750 | 14850 | -100 | -0.67% | | | 全乳基差 | -490 | -400 | -90 | -22.50% | 70/04 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14600 | 14650 | -50 | -0.34% | | | 非标价差 | -640 | -600 | -40 | -6.67% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.91 | 53.48 | -0.57 | -1.07% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.00 | 56.70 | 0.30 | 0.53% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13100 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: As of the week ending November 7, the total daily coke output of all - sampled independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.0968 million tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. On the demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3422 million tons, a weekly decrease of 21,400 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 5.19 percentage points to 39.83%, with over 60% of steel mills in a loss state, indicating continued demand pressure for coke. In terms of inventory, the coke inventory in each link of the industrial chain decreased this week. As of the latest data on November 7, the total coke inventory in the statistical scope was 8.8705 million tons, a weekly decrease of 129,700 tons. Overall, due to environmental protection restrictions and operational pressure, the supply and demand of coke are weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack effective support. The upward driving force mainly comes from coking coal on the cost side, supporting the main coke contract to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in coking coal supply [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending November 7, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 738,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and 47,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The total daily coke output of all - sampled independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.0968 million tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 7, coking coal accumulated in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain and decreased in the downstream. Among them, the inventory of independent coking plants increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week, the port inventory increased by 141,200 tons week - on - week, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week. Overall, the supply and demand of coking coal both decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply - side expectation brought by safety supervision and anti - involution. Attention should be paid to the subsequent production situation of coal mines in the main producing areas [7][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In October, China imported 4.1737 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426,600 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3%. From January to October, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 38.7623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.0% [9]. - On November 7, the price of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable. The ex - factory price of prime coking clean coal was 1,615 yuan/ton, and that of fat coal was 1,600 yuan/ton, both including cash and tax [10]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,620 | +3.18% | +3.18% | - 4.14% | - 14.29% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,570 | +0.64% | +1.29% | - 3.09% | - 11.30% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,435 | +3.24% | +3.24% | +21.61% | +0.35% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,670 | +0.60% | +0.60% | +12.08% | - 3.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,800 | +3.45% | +3.45% | +17.65% | +5.88% | [11] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,756.5 | - 0.62 | 1,786.0 | 1,750.0 | 17,198 | - 1,212 | 37,429 | - 771 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,270.0 | - 0.97 | 1,294.5 | 1,261.0 | 829,948 | - 85,901 | 638,430 | - 36,173 | [15] Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to coke inventory, coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, which visually show the historical data trends of relevant indicators [16][18][28]. Market Outlook The views on coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the weak supply - demand situation of coke in the off - season and the supply - demand double - decline and neutral fundamentals of coking coal, and suggesting attention to the supply changes of coking coal and the production situation of main - producing - area coal mines [35][36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand. Both PE and PP are in a weak pattern [1][2]. - For PE, high supply, limited demand from downstream sectors like agricultural films, and weakening cost - end support lead to its continued weak trend [2]. - For PP, supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and with weak cost - end support, it will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（-65），PP主力合约收盘价为6491元/吨（-69）；LL华北现货为6800元/吨（-70），LL华东现货为6920元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6520元/吨（-10）；LL华北基差为-14元/吨（-5），LL华东基差为106元/吨（+35），PP华东基差为29元/吨（+59） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%），PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为247.4元/吨（-25.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 412.6元/吨（-25.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 74.9元/吨（+34.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 69.8元/吨（-62.8），PP进口利润为 - 318.2元/吨（-62.5），PP出口利润为 - 8.1美元/吨（+7.8） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and new capacity coming online. Demand is limited, with the growth of agricultural film demand likely to slow down and packaging film demand being weak. The cost - end support is expected to weaken, and it will continue its weak pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction persists. Supply is in excess due to new device commissioning and the return of previously maintained facilities. Demand support is limited, mainly from low - price rigid - demand restocking. It will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: Reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PE is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. High supply, limited demand from sectors like agricultural films, and weak cost - end support lead to continued weak and volatile trends [2]. - PP also faces supply - demand contradictions. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6879元/吨（-9）, PP主力合约收盘价为6560元/吨（-16）. LL华北现货为6870元/吨（-20）, LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50）, PP华东现货为6530元/吨（-50）. LL华北基差为 - 9元/吨（-11）, LL华东基差为71元/吨（-41）, PP华东基差为 - 30元/吨（-34） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为272.7元/吨（-10.7）, PP油制生产利润为 - 387.3元/吨（-10.7）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 109.5元/吨（+42.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 7.0元/吨（-25.8）, PP进口利润为 - 255.7元/吨（+37.1）, PP出口利润为 - 15.8美元/吨（+0.7） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply - side pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and the release of new production capacities. Demand growth may slow down, and cost - end support is expected to weaken. PE will continue weak and volatile [2]. - **PP**: Supply - demand contradictions exist. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE is neutral; PP is recommended to be cautiously shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: L01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices; PP01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates an escalation of the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. Polyolefin registered warrants are at a historical high for the same period, suppressing the market, leading to a continuous reverse spread in polyolefin prices. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years. Against the backdrop of supply - side pressure and lackluster demand, polyolefins follow cost - side fluctuations [17][18]. - The predicted trading range for polyethylene (LL2601) this week is between 7200 - 7500, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is between 7000 - 7300. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: There is an expectation of an escalation in the Venezuela geopolitical conflict, causing crude oil prices to rebound. In terms of valuation, the weekly increase in polyethylene is in the order of cost > futures > spot, while for polypropylene, it is futures > spot > cost. Last week, WTI crude oil rose by 0.39%, Brent crude oil by 1.10%, coal prices by 5.83%, methanol fell by - 2.58%, ethylene by - 3.26%, and propylene by - 3.30%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00%. Cost - side support still exists [15]. - **Supply - side**: PE capacity utilization is 80.98%, a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease but a 3.90% year - on - year increase and a - 4.39% decrease compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization is 75.30%, a - 2.55% week - on - week decrease, a - 0.66% year - on - year decrease, and an - 8.54% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, polypropylene will face significant production pressure in the fourth quarter [15]. - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase but a - 10.04% year - on - year decrease. In August, PP imports were 177,400 tons, an 11.15% month - on - month increase and a - 6.18% year - on - year decrease. Import profits are decreasing, with a reduction in PE supplies from North America, easing import - side pressure. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, a - 14.48% month - on - month decrease but a 63.54% year - on - year increase. In August, PP exports were 208,200 tons, a - 16.82% month - on - month decrease but a 21.14% year - on - year increase. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year - on - year [16]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 0.18% week - on - week increase and a 0.11% year - on - year increase. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.00%, a 0.29% week - on - week increase and a 0.37% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years [16]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 514,600 tons, with a - 2.81% week - on - week reduction and a 2.02% increase compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 50,000 tons, with a - 0.70% week - on - week reduction. PP production enterprise inventory is 638,500 tons, with a - 5.92% week - on - week reduction and a 12.69% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 220,000 tons, with a - 7.80% week - on - week reduction; PP port inventory is 66,800 tons, with a - 1.62% week - on - week reduction. Overall, PP inventory pressure is higher than that of PE [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the term structure, prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warrants of PE and PP, including the term structure of PE and PP, the prices of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the basis of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the 1 - 5 spreads of LLDPE and PP, the open interest of LLDPE and PP active contracts, and the registered warrants of LLDPE and PP contracts. It also mentions that South Korea's ethylene plant clearance policy may boost the long - term strengthening of the LL - PP spread [31][63]. 3.3 Cost - side - The report provides a series of charts showing the prices of various raw materials and related indicators, such as the prices of PE and PP in the spot and futures markets and their costs, WTI crude oil prices, thermal coal prices, naphtha prices, propane prices, gasoline crack spreads, P/N/C prices, LPG registered warrants, domestic LPG spot and futures prices and basis, Saudi CP prices, Far East FEI prices, domestic LPG supply - side composition, China's LPG production, China's crude oil processing volume, China's major refinery capacity utilization rate and gross profit, domestic LPG import dependence, China's LPG import source proportion, South China's LPG import profit, LPG arrival volume, China's LPG import volume, Panama Canal water level, Gatun Lake water level, LPG freight rates from the US and the Middle East to the Far East, LPG refinery and port storage ratios, China's LPG demand proportion, China's LPG chemical demand proportion, China's olefin LPG actual demand, MTBE and PDH production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, alkylation oil production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, US propane prices, production, inventory, exports, and product supply [73]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Material Composition**: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon (12.00%), coal (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [139]. - **Capacity and Production**: The report shows the annual changes in PE capacity, production, and capacity growth rate. In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation [143][145]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The current PE capacity utilization rate is 80.98%, with a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease. The report also provides information on PE maintenance plans and the resulting production losses [15][147].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high operation and weak demand, with a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and there may be a correction after a phased rebound in the market. Technically, for V2601, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average around 4691 and the pressure of the 20 - day moving average around 4836 [3]. - This week, a large number of PVC devices are set to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down devices is limited. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to return to a high level. With fewer maintenance devices and new production capacity coming online in October, the supply pressure is relatively high [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and product orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines [3]. - The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased, while that of the ethylene process has decreased. Due to the larger decline in spot prices than costs, losses in both processes have deepened. Currently, calcium carbide enterprises are in deep losses, and the cost - side support has been weakened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4702 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the trading volume is 715,268 lots, down 43,758 lots; the open interest is 1,206,166 lots, down 6,761 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 905,720 lots, down 1,642 lots; the short positions are 1,042,891 lots, up 1,316 lots; the net long positions are - 137,171 lots, down 2,958 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,618.85 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,707.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 92 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it is 549 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 192 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; the inventory in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; the inventory in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4,377.94 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3,588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.93%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.8%, up 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 53.94%. PVC downstream operating rate increased by 9.38% week - on - week to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% week - on - week to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% week - on - week to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% week - on - week to 103.38 tons. V2601 first rose and then fell, closing at 4,702 yuan/ton. Affected by the maintenance of some devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased significantly last week. After the National Day, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles increased week - on - week. Inventory decreased slightly [3]. - From October 11th to 17th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,142 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,432 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 17 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 每日报告 | 表1：期货市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: PL01 - 02 short at high prices; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, a PDH plant in Shandong was overhauled ahead of schedule during the holiday, and there are plans for shutdown and overhaul of PDH plants in Bohua and Hebei Haiwei after the holiday. The restart of Ningbo Jinfa's Phase I PDH was postponed to the end of October, providing support to the supply side. The spot price of propylene in Shandong stopped falling and rose slightly, while the futures price was still dragged down by the cost side [2]. - On the demand side, downstream factories reduced their pre - holiday inventory replenishment and were still constrained by cost pressure. The inventory replenishment demand was poor, and they mainly made rigid purchases at low prices. The low propylene price drove some PP plants that purchase externally to restart before the holiday. Although some phenol - acetone and propylene oxide plants are expected to shut down, the demand for polypropylene, the main downstream product, may increase. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side [2]. - On the cost side, international oil prices continued to be under pressure due to weak demand. The official price of Saudi CP in October was significantly lowered, and the price of propane in the external market dropped sharply, weakening the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures include propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil production capacity utilization rate of major refineries [15][23][25] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures cover the difference between FOB in South Korea and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Japan and CFR in China, the difference between CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Profit and Operating Rate of Propylene Downstream Products - The report shows the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][41][44] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, due to the mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [5] - For urea, with relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] - For rubber, adopt a bullish approach in the medium - term, and a neutral or slightly bullish short - term strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] - For PVC, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the current situation is supply - demand weak [24] - For p - xylene, due to high load and lack of driving factors, it's recommended to wait and see [28] - For PTA, considering the supply and demand situation and valuation, it's suggested to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, with a weak outlook and relatively high valuation, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.92, or 1.45%, to $62.72; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.86, or 1.27%, to $66.66; INE main crude oil futures fell 4.20 yuan, or 0.86%, to 485.8 yuan. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.39 million barrels to 213.76 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels [1] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, as the fundamentals support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - opens, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang price dropped 1 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia dropped 20 yuan/ton, southern Shandong rose 10 yuan/ton, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 13 yuan/ton to 2348 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 8 to - 28 [4] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Supply - side production declined, while demand - side port olefin plants restarted. Port inventory continued to rise but at a slower pace, and was at a historical high, while the inland was in a tight balance. It's recommended to wait and see due to mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure [5] Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price dropped 20 yuan, Henan dropped 20 yuan, the domestic market was generally weak. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 1 yuan/ton to 1660 yuan/ton, the basis was - 50, and the 1 - 5 spread rose 8 to - 53 [7] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The futures price fell with increasing positions. The domestic supply recovered, demand was weak, and enterprise inventory rose again. With relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber spot prices were supported, and futures were oversold. Thailand's rainfall forecast for the next 7 days was not significant, and supply - side positive factors were limited. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [10][12] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: In the medium - term, adopt a bullish approach; in the short - term, the market has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract dropped 12 yuan to 4938 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, the basis was - 158 (+12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%; downstream demand - side overall operating rate was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (- 0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [14] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, enterprise comprehensive profit declined, production was at a historical high, and short - term new plants were to be commissioned. Domestic demand improved, but export expectations weakened. With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price dropped, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The overall operating rate of the "three S" on the demand side increased [17] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: In the long term, the BZN spread is expected to repair. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, styrene prices may rebound. It's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price dropped, the spot price also declined, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate increased, inventory at production enterprises and traders increased, and the downstream average operating rate rose [20] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The market is waiting for favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost - side support remains. With limited downward valuation space for PE, but high inventory pressure, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price dropped, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, production enterprise inventory decreased, trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate rose [23] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With remaining planned production capacity on the supply side and high inventory pressure, and the downstream operating rate rebounding seasonally from a low level, it's a supply - demand weak situation with no prominent short - term contradictions [24] P - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract dropped 2 yuan to 6592 yuan, PX CFR dropped 8 dollars to 808 dollars, and the basis was 30 yuan (- 66). The PX load in China was 86.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the Asian load was 78.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 million tons [26][27] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With high PX load, many unexpected PTA maintenance in the short - term, and expected delay in new PTA plant commissioning, the PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. With lack of driving factors and PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [28] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract dropped 18 yuan to 4586 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 45 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was - 84 (- 2) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 42 (+2) yuan. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of September 12, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 million tons [29] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume remains high, and the inventory destocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak. With the PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract dropped 17 yuan to 4240 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 7 yuan to 4344 yuan, the basis was 93 (+1) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 54 (+6) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Port inventory was 46.7 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons [31] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With high domestic and overseas plant loads and high domestic supply, the port inventory is expected to be low in the short - term. In the medium - term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic load, and new plant commissioning, inventory will accumulate in the fourth quarter. With relatively high valuation and a weak outlook, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and volatile trend. The demand for finished products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the futures market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [3]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The recent increase in overseas mine shipments may bring pressure, and the strong raw material prices continue to affect the profits of steel mills. The fundamentals of finished products are relatively weak, and the futures market shows that raw materials are stronger than finished products. The impact of production restrictions on iron water production in Tangshan steel mills needs to be observed [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon continue to be weak. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and its price is expected to remain weak until mid - October. There is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies. Hedging funds are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the supply pressure from resuming production greater than the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and possible upward exploration if favorable news is released [14][15]. - The price of glass is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy support and demand improvement. The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3683 tons in registered warrants and 41530 hands in the main contract positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%), with no change in registered warrants and an increase of 22073 hands in the main contract positions [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall steel production is high, demand is insufficient, and steel prices are under great pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, up 0.71% (+5.50), with an increase of 12928 hands in positions to 46.59 million hands. The weighted position was 77.35 million hands [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.65% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas shipments increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The daily average pig iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased, but inventory accumulation did not slow down significantly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.21% at 5732 yuan/ton; the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.14% at 5520 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market declined, and the prices of ferroalloys continued to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and its production continued to increase. There was no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+20), with a decrease of 6216 hands in weighted positions to 484943 hands [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 460 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The supply increased, and the demand from downstream industries was divided. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 52160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% (+285), with an increase of 2757 hands in weighted positions to 320859 hands [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 660 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It continued the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply increased, the inventory of silicon wafers decreased, and the spot price increased. The price was expected to be highly volatile, with possible upward exploration if favorable news was released [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, unchanged. The overall market was stable, and the transaction was average [17]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, down 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, with a decrease of 0.5 days in inventory days [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The production remained high, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream real estate demand did not improve significantly. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depended on policy support and demand improvement [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1175 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The overall price of enterprises fluctuated little, with individual price cuts [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8193 million tons, down 2.58% from last Thursday, with a decrease in both light and heavy soda ash inventories [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream glass industry's operating rate changed. The price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space was limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [18].