丙烯日报 | 2025-10-10 丙烷跌价明显，成本端拖累丙烯走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 单边：中性； 跨期：PL01-02逢高反套； 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动；上游装置检修动态；外盘丙烷价格波动 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6210元/吨（-110），丙烯华东现货价6290元/吨（-10），丙烯华北现货价6495元/吨 （+90），丙烯华东基差80元/吨（+100），丙烯华北基差285元/吨（+200）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR- 日本石脑油CFR201美元/吨（+2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR147美元/吨（+60），进口利润-381元/吨（-25），厂内库存 44910吨（+2000）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率39%（+2.01%），生产利润-210元/吨（-175）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（+5%），生产利润 -344元/吨（-115）；正丁醇开工率88%（+1%），生产利润-289元/吨（-206）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润-98 元/吨（-14）；丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润1034元/吨（+107）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-82 ...

甲醇 能源化工日报 2025-09-23 WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.92 美元，跌幅 1.45%，报 62.72 美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌 0.86 美元，跌幅 1.27%，报 66.66 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 4.20 元，跌幅 0.86%，报 485.8 元。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 0.39 百万桶至 213.76 百万桶，环比累库 0.18%； 汽油商业库存累库 0.63 百万桶至 91.39 百万桶，环比累库 0.69%；柴油商业库存累库 0.72 百 万桶至 103.95 百万桶，环比累库 0.70%；总成品油商业库存累库 1.35 百万桶至 195.34 百万 桶，环比累库 0.70%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，因而我们维持 OPEC 此举是 对市场进行压力测试的观点。当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静态基本面与动态预测仍表 现良好。我们维持上周对原油多配的观点，基本面将支撑当前价格，而如若地缘溢价重新打开， 则油价重获高度空间。 【行情资讯】 太仓价格跌 1 元/吨，内蒙下跌 20 元/吨，鲁南涨 10 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and volatile trend. The demand for finished products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the futures market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [3]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The recent increase in overseas mine shipments may bring pressure, and the strong raw material prices continue to affect the profits of steel mills. The fundamentals of finished products are relatively weak, and the futures market shows that raw materials are stronger than finished products. The impact of production restrictions on iron water production in Tangshan steel mills needs to be observed [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon continue to be weak. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and its price is expected to remain weak until mid - October. There is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies. Hedging funds are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the supply pressure from resuming production greater than the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and possible upward exploration if favorable news is released [14][15]. - The price of glass is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy support and demand improvement. The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3683 tons in registered warrants and 41530 hands in the main contract positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%), with no change in registered warrants and an increase of 22073 hands in the main contract positions [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall steel production is high, demand is insufficient, and steel prices are under great pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, up 0.71% (+5.50), with an increase of 12928 hands in positions to 46.59 million hands. The weighted position was 77.35 million hands [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.65% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas shipments increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The daily average pig iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased, but inventory accumulation did not slow down significantly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.21% at 5732 yuan/ton; the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.14% at 5520 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market declined, and the prices of ferroalloys continued to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and its production continued to increase. There was no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+20), with a decrease of 6216 hands in weighted positions to 484943 hands [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 460 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The supply increased, and the demand from downstream industries was divided. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 52160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% (+285), with an increase of 2757 hands in weighted positions to 320859 hands [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 660 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It continued the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply increased, the inventory of silicon wafers decreased, and the spot price increased. The price was expected to be highly volatile, with possible upward exploration if favorable news was released [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, unchanged. The overall market was stable, and the transaction was average [17]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, down 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, with a decrease of 0.5 days in inventory days [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The production remained high, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream real estate demand did not improve significantly. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depended on policy support and demand improvement [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1175 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The overall price of enterprises fluctuated little, with individual price cuts [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8193 million tons, down 2.58% from last Thursday, with a decrease in both light and heavy soda ash inventories [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream glass industry's operating rate changed. The price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space was limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 2, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,551 yuan/ton, up 1.17% from the previous settlement price; the position was 105,860 lots, down 3,747 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 152,509 lots, down 12,114 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,500 - 3,820 yuan/ton; South China, 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton; East China, 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton. Prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing markets rose yesterday, while asphalt spot prices in other regions remained generally stable [1] - The strengthening of crude oil prices provides support for the cost side of asphalt, boosting the sentiment of asphalt futures and spot markets. The supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak on both sides. Terminal project funds are generally in poor condition, the improvement of terminal demand is not obvious, and speculative demand is also weak. On the supply side, growth is also restricted, and the recent plant operating rate has declined again. Inventory remains at a low level, and the destocking trend at refineries and social terminals continues, with limited overall pressure [1] - Overall, with the oil price fluctuating strongly and limited contradictions in the asphalt market itself, the market may continue to operate within a range, with support at the bottom but insufficient upward driving force [1] - Unilateral strategy: oscillating; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures market: The main BU2510 asphalt futures contract had a closing price of 3,551 yuan/ton on September 2, up 1.17% from the previous settlement price, with a position of 105,860 lots (down 3,747 lots) and a trading volume of 152,509 lots (down 12,114 lots) [1] - Spot market: Spot prices vary by region, and prices in some markets rose yesterday. The cost side is supported by strong crude oil prices, and the supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, with low inventory and a destocking trend [1] Strategy - Unilateral: oscillating; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Ruida Futures indicates that the short-term L2601 contract is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates a weak fluctuation for the L2601 contract in the short term, with a resistance level around 7380 [2] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in PE production by 0.50% to 617,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.72%, indicating stable supply conditions [1] Group 2 - The average operating rate of downstream PE products increased by 0.3%, with agricultural film operating rates rising by 2.9%, suggesting a seasonal demand increase [1] - Production enterprise inventory rose by 12.91% to 501,900 tons, while social inventory decreased by 2.14% to 556,500 tons, indicating manageable total inventory pressure [1] - Recent international oil prices have seen a slight increase, providing some cost support, while the EIA reported a larger-than-expected decrease in weekly inventories [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to low processing margins, some plant overhauls, and the lack of cost - side support from oil prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine ceasefire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with obvious downside support, as the arrival volume is at a low level, port inventory is expected to remain low, and demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positives include planned PTA plant overhauls in August and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negatives are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [8]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: Yesterday, due to the unexpected shutdown of a 5 million - ton PTA plant in South China, the PTA futures price rose significantly, driving up the entire polyester - chain futures market. The downstream polyester sales also improved slightly. The spot basis first rose and then weakened. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7. The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, a 0.05 - day increase from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. In the short term, the spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the basis will also show interval fluctuations [5]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol remained high, and the basis was stable. The intraday disk fluctuated slightly. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 88 - 92 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The inventory in East China decreased by 26,900 tons to 500,500 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it. The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing. In the short term, the market is expected to be slightly bullish, and the port inventory is expected to remain low in August - September [6][7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol's operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [10]. 5.价格相关 - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of bottle chips, production margin, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's inter - month spreads, basis, and the spot spread between TA and EG, as well as the processing margin of p - xylene [12][15][18][22][25][28][35]. 6.库存分析 - There are inventory - related charts, such as the PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [38][40][43]. 7.聚酯上下游开工 - There are charts showing the upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester, including the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [49][53]. 8.加工费与利润 - There are charts about the PTA processing fee and the profits of MEG produced by different methods, as well as the production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [57][60][63].

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term macro - market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand structure and cost support of ethylene glycol are weak. It is expected that the short - term spot price of ethylene glycol may fluctuate within a range [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: For EG2509, the closing price was 4432 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan, with a position of 190,590 contracts, a decrease of 8,974 contracts; for EG2601, the closing price was 4478 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan, with a position of 57,197 contracts, an increase of 9,162 contracts. On the 12th, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract 2409 was 4395, the highest was 4416, the lowest was 4365, the settlement price was 4392, and the closing price was 4409, up 29 yuan or 0.66% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 207,424 lots, and the position was 433,890 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil prices: Investors are concerned about the upcoming negotiations between the US and a European country on the Ukraine crisis. On Monday (August 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.13% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.02 - $64.44; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.81 - $67.13 [8] - Ethylene glycol market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price this week is 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot negotiation price next week is 4508 - 4510 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for the end of August is 4509 - 4511 yuan/ton. The basis of this week's spot is at a premium of 75 - 77 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, next week's spot basis is at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, and the basis at the end of August is at a premium of 77 - 79 yuan/ton compared to EG2509 [8] - Polyester market: The price of polyester filament continued to rise locally to repair profit margins, but downstream buying was limited as most completed restocking last weekend and are currently digesting inventory. The main futures price of polyester staple fiber was running warmly. The price of staple fiber factories was stable, and the price of traders increased slightly. The downstream purchasing willingness was low, and the trading volume in the market was differentiated, with some low - price transactions showing an increase [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]

Supply and Demand - As of August 1, domestic and international PX operating rates have slightly increased, with domestic PX operating at 81.1% (+1.2%) and Asian PX at 73.4% (+0.5%) [2] - As of August 1, PTA operating rates have decreased to 72.6% (-7.3%) [3] Price Movement - On August 6, Asian PX prices rose by $5/ton to $844/ton, equivalent to a spot price of 6947 RMB/ton [1] - The market sentiment for PX trading improved slightly in the afternoon after a brief period of activity in the morning, with September prices expected to be around +11/+13 and October around +6/+8 [1] Market Outlook - The supply of PX is expected to increase due to the startup of some restructuring units and the restart of PX maintenance units; however, the demand for PTA is weakening due to increased maintenance and no significant improvement in terminal demand [4] - The overall market sentiment for domestic commodities has improved recently, providing some support to PX prices in the short term, despite expectations of a marginal weakening in supply and demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent macro - atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and there is insufficient cost - side support. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity, and there is a lack of upward drive. However, as the basis weakens, the buying interest of traders has slightly increased, and the downward space is limited. Also, pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - For MEG, this week's ethylene glycol foreign vessel arrivals are relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase stage - by - stage. In August, the ethylene glycol fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the domestic output increase is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will have a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, so pay attention to the cost - side and device changes [7]. - The influencing factors include that the supply - demand expectation of PTA will improve in August due to some device overhauls, but the terminal demand is weakening as it is the end of the export rush and the domestic demand off - season [9]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - aspect. Pay attention to the cost - side, and for the upward rebound of the futures price, pay attention to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level. The spot trading atmosphere slightly improved, the basis was weak, and the trading was mainly between traders. Some polyester factories sold goods. The mainstream suppliers also sold goods. The August goods were traded at a discount of 12 - 25 to the 09 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4650 - 4660 yuan/ton. The goods in the middle and upper part of September were traded at par with the 09 contract, and those in the lower part of September were traded at a premium of 5 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 19 [5]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the domestic ethylene glycol market weakened slightly, and the trading was general. The spot was traded at a premium of 78 - 80 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In the afternoon, driven by the temporary shutdown of the Maoming Petrochemical device, the ethylene glycol futures price rose strongly. By the end of the session, the spot negotiation strengthened to a premium of 79 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the negotiation of recent shipments weakened slightly to around 520 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the negotiation center rose to 523 - 525 US dollars/ton in the afternoon driven by the unexpected shutdown news of the Maoming Petrochemical device. There were transactions of recent shipments at around 523 US dollars/ton during the day. In addition, there were transactions of Taiwan tender goods at around 525 US dollars/ton with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PTA**: The spot price is 4660 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 22, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has increased, which is a negative factor [5][6]. - **MEG**: The spot price is 4460 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 61, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is a negative factor [7][8]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of PET bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's basis, inter - month spread, spot spread, etc., which reflect the price trends and relationships of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [15][18][22][23][25][28][31][38]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - There are inventory data charts of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., including factory inventory days, port inventory, and inventory days of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which reflect the inventory levels and trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2021 to 2025 [41][42][44][46][47][51]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - **Upstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of upstream products [52][53][55]. - **Downstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of downstream products [56][57][59]. 3.8. Profit - There are profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), etc., which reflect the profit trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2022 to 2025. It should be noted that the profit calculation is mainly for observing trends [60][63][66][67][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a weak spot basis. Some mainstream suppliers sold their goods. The supply - demand pattern is okay due to some PTA device shutdowns last week, but the spot basis is weak. Considering the cooling macro - atmosphere, commodity correction, insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand in the off - season, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are new changes in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market negotiation was general. Due to weather - related delays in vessel arrivals this week, the visible inventory is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to around 69%, and there is still room for improvement. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation, and the tradable spot in the market will gradually become more abundant. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No specific content for the previous day review is provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental aspect: Futures were low - level fluctuating, spot negotiation was general, and basis was weak. 8 - month mainstream transactions were at 09 - 15, 9 - month mid - term at 09 flat, and 9 - month end at 09 + 5. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 15 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4700, 09 - contract basis is 2, and the futures price is higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Position of main players: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price fluctuation, pay attention to new changes in devices under low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamental aspect: Price fluctuated narrowly, and market negotiation was general. Spot transactions were in a narrow range, with a premium of 77 - 80 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The foreign - exchange price also fluctuated narrowly [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 4455, 09 - contract basis is 66, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Position of main players: Net short position with a decrease in short positions [7]. - Expectation: Short - term weak price adjustment, pay attention to cost - side changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No specific content for today's focus is provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes over time [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [11]. - **Price - related Data**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various spreads of bottle chips, as well as the basis, spreads, and price differences of PTA and MEG, and the processing fees and profits of related products, covering the data from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][23][26][29][36]. - **Inventory - related Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products, including factory - level and port - level inventories, from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][49]. - **Operating Rate - related Data**: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55]. - **Profit - related Data**: It includes the processing fees of PTA and the production profits of MEG and various polyester products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][64].