PPI改善也有国际大宗商品的输入性因素。国际有色金属价格上行拉动国内有色金属矿采选 业、有色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格环比分别上涨3.7%和2.8%。但是，国际原油价格下行也 影响国内石油开采、精炼石油产品制造价格分别下降2.3%和0.9%。当前，国际石油和其他大 宗商品供需的不确定性增加，再加上全球流动性正从美国股市向商品市场转移，2026年大宗商 品价格上涨可能会继续改善国内PPI水平。 当前的价格修复，是2025年需求侧扩大内需与供给侧治理竞争政策协同发力的直接结果。本轮 物价回升具有鲜明的结构性特征和政策驱动特点，这一态势能否维持并传导至广泛的投资与消 费预期，将决定2026年经济能否步入"物价温和回升-企业利润改善-资产负债表修复-内需扩 张"良性循环。 将短期的政策驱动效应，转化为可持续的市场内生增长动力，或是2026年的关键任务。有力的 价格预期与传导对提振投资与消费能够起到关键作用。进一步降息与企业利润不断改善，也将 提升资产价格上涨预期，改善企业资产负债表，释放"财富效应"，进一步刺激投资与消费，形 成良性循环。 应继续积极扩大内需，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，改善供需关系，努力稳定楼市，激发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of CITIC Securities indicates that gold prices have rapidly increased since the end of August, driven by factors such as rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, U.S. government shutdowns prompting safe-haven trading, and geopolitical disturbances from Venezuela. Despite short-term factors eventually fading, the long-term bullish fundamentals remain unchanged, with gold prices expected to exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year under neutral assumptions [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights a trading investment opportunity in the superhard materials sector following the recent export controls implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs. The scope of these controls has expanded compared to August 2024, emphasizing the strategic nature of superhard materials. While short-term exports may face obstacles, the long-term view suggests that these controls will accelerate the consolidation of the domestic superhard materials industry, with prices expected to trend upward and functional applications of synthetic diamonds likely to continue driving demand [2] Group 3 - Guojin Securities reports that the overall economic performance in September remained stable, with resilient exports and a marginal recovery in domestic demand driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. However, performance across industries has been uneven. Supply-side governance and industrial upgrades have shown early effectiveness, leading to superior performance in upstream resource products and emerging manufacturing, particularly in high-end equipment manufacturing. In contrast, traditional raw materials and consumer sectors are experiencing a "peak season without prosperity" due to delayed demand-side stimulus and consumer confidence recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that September showed stable performance, with exports maintaining resilience and domestic demand marginally recovering due to the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," although performance across various industries was uneven [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Exports have shown resilience during September, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [1] - Domestic demand is experiencing a marginal recovery, driven by the seasonal peak in consumption [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Performance across different industries is uneven, with some sectors showing strong growth while others lag behind [1] - Supply-side governance and industrial upgrades are yielding positive results, particularly benefiting upstream resource products and emerging manufacturing sectors, as well as high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - Traditional raw materials and consumer sectors are experiencing a "peak season not thriving" scenario due to delayed demand-side stimulus and recovery in consumer confidence [1]