新、老交替，迭代已成趋势： 上述情况反映了主力消费人群的增长放缓以及年轻族群的消费结构变 化。人口方面，根据国家统计局的披露，2024年末我国人口总数约14.08亿人，出生人口954万人，死 亡人口1093万人，总人口连续三年下滑。我国0-14岁青少年人口在2000年跌破3亿人口加速下滑，未 来20-59岁消费主力人口或面临加速减少的风险。结构方面，物质的相对过剩，使得年轻族群更关注 心理层面的满足，维持其对情绪价值付出溢价的较高意愿。我们认为我国的居民消费正处于由"金钱 型消费"转为"时间型消费"的过渡时期，新、老消费的结构性分化或将持续演绎。 ▲图表1： 2025年大消费子板块股价表现 资料来源：iFind，国家统计局，野村东方国际证券 收入、财富效应仍待修复 资产贬值，影响消费意愿： 2025年购房限制放宽的正向催化的快速消散，使得国内住宅市场量价两 端同步承压。根据国家统计局70个大中城市房屋价格统计，截至2025年10月，新建商品住房价格连 续29个月环比下降，二手住房连续30个月环比下降，且跌幅在下半年有加深趋势。由于"房产"在我 国家庭资产中占据重要地位，房地产价格的持续下行或对居民的消费意愿形 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of CITIC Securities indicates that gold prices have rapidly increased since the end of August, driven by factors such as rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, U.S. government shutdowns prompting safe-haven trading, and geopolitical disturbances from Venezuela. Despite short-term factors eventually fading, the long-term bullish fundamentals remain unchanged, with gold prices expected to exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year under neutral assumptions [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights a trading investment opportunity in the superhard materials sector following the recent export controls implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs. The scope of these controls has expanded compared to August 2024, emphasizing the strategic nature of superhard materials. While short-term exports may face obstacles, the long-term view suggests that these controls will accelerate the consolidation of the domestic superhard materials industry, with prices expected to trend upward and functional applications of synthetic diamonds likely to continue driving demand [2] Group 3 - Guojin Securities reports that the overall economic performance in September remained stable, with resilient exports and a marginal recovery in domestic demand driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. However, performance across industries has been uneven. Supply-side governance and industrial upgrades have shown early effectiveness, leading to superior performance in upstream resource products and emerging manufacturing, particularly in high-end equipment manufacturing. In contrast, traditional raw materials and consumer sectors are experiencing a "peak season without prosperity" due to delayed demand-side stimulus and consumer confidence recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that September showed stable performance, with exports maintaining resilience and domestic demand marginally recovering due to the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," although performance across various industries was uneven [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Exports have shown resilience during September, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [1] - Domestic demand is experiencing a marginal recovery, driven by the seasonal peak in consumption [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Performance across different industries is uneven, with some sectors showing strong growth while others lag behind [1] - Supply-side governance and industrial upgrades are yielding positive results, particularly benefiting upstream resource products and emerging manufacturing sectors, as well as high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - Traditional raw materials and consumer sectors are experiencing a "peak season not thriving" scenario due to delayed demand-side stimulus and recovery in consumer confidence [1]