还记得2017年，马云说房子未来不值钱，很多人一笑而过，那时候楼市正火，谁会把这句话当真呢，如今8年过去了，走进 2025年下半年，这句话似乎已经应验了。 如果你去东北，那么鹤岗、阜新等地几万元就能买套房，而深圳、上海等一线城市房价普遍下跌30%左右，连深圳南山科 技园的次新房价格都遭遇腰斩，这些现象让不少人开始相信，有些话能经得住时间的考验。 最根本的变化，是供需关系的彻底逆转，最新数据显示，全国住房总量已经超过6亿栋，足够容纳30亿人居住，远超我国14 亿人口的实际需求。 人口结构的变化更让人揪心，00后比90后整整少了4700万人，00-10后比80-90后少了1.1亿人，随着"421"家庭结构成为主 流，住房需求正在结构性收缩。 与此同时，城镇化率已接近70%，新增购房需求大幅减少，2026年全国小学生预计减少263万人，需求端持续萎缩已成定 局。想在家创业的人，加我 薇 信 61 999 0137 政策风向也在转变，2025年，楼市正经历根本性调整，最核心的变化是保障房和商品房双轨制的建立。 计划五年内推出600万套保障房，北京等地的保障房租金已低于市场价30%，这对商品房需求形成明显分流。 期房销 ...

Group 1: Market Psychology and Behavior - The phenomenon of "buying less when prices drop" is influenced by economic laws, psychological expectations, financial risks, and policy environments [1] - According to behavioral economics' "prospect theory," individuals are 2.75 times more sensitive to losses than to gains, leading to anxiety about potential further price drops [4] - In Shenzhen's real estate market, a 1% decrease in housing prices results in a 3.2% reduction in viewing activity, illustrating a typical "wait-and-see" effect [4] Group 2: Investment and Asset Value Concerns - The proportion of housing assets in Chinese households is 77%, significantly higher than the 34% in the U.S., leading to fears of asset devaluation during price declines [4] - Historical examples, such as the 87% drop in land prices in Japan during the "lost thirty years," create a collective memory of falling prices, reinforcing risk-averse behavior among buyers [4] Group 3: Financial Risks and Credit Dynamics - When housing prices fall beyond the down payment ratio (typically 30%), buyers may face "negative equity" situations [6] - A 5% drop in housing prices can increase bank mortgage default rates by 0.8 percentage points, prompting banks to tighten lending conditions, creating a downward spiral in demand and prices [6] - High-leverage investors may face amplified losses, with a 5% price drop potentially leading to a 20% loss, resulting in panic selling that exacerbates market oversupply [6] Group 4: Economic and Income Expectations - Downward trends in housing prices often coincide with economic slowdowns, as evidenced by a 21.3% youth unemployment rate in China and a 3.8% growth in disposable income [8] - The rental market typically weakens alongside falling housing prices, diminishing the cost-effectiveness of buying versus renting [8] Group 5: Policy and Regulatory Impacts - Local governments' price control measures can lead to transaction freezes, as seen in Kunming, where a proposed 30% price drop resulted in zero sales over three months [10] - Although interest rate cuts may stimulate demand, the anticipated losses from falling prices often outweigh the benefits of lower rates [10] Group 6: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average housing area per urban resident in China is 41 square meters, surpassing many developed countries, leading to a new normal of supply-demand imbalance as urbanization rates exceed 65% [12] - The population eligible for home purchases is declining, with a significant drop in the number of individuals in their 20s and 30s, alongside rising rates of single living and non-marriage [12] Group 7: Shifts in Investment Preferences - Chinese households are reducing their real estate investment proportions, with a significant increase in savings compared to a modest rise in housing loans [12] - Alternative investment options such as gold, insurance, and financial products are diverting funds away from home purchases [12] Group 8: Future Market Outlook - The current demand contraction due to falling prices represents a transition from irrational exuberance to a return to value, potentially leading to a healthier housing system focused on genuine residential needs [14] - The Singaporean housing model suggests that maintaining homeownership rates above 90% and stabilizing price-to-income ratios can enhance market resilience [15] - Implementing mechanisms to buffer price fluctuations and developing new holding models, such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), can mitigate individual risk exposure [15]