每周四，封面天天见之"封面会买房"都会带来最新楼市资讯与行业观察，敬请关注。 从上周四到本周三（11月13日-11月19日），哪些楼市动态值得重点关注？来看本周楼市周报。 一、土地市场 本周（11月13日-11月19日）大成都范围内共成交9宗住宅、商业用地，面积合计约389.9亩，所有地块均为底价成交。其中青羊区四宗地块采用"组合供应 方式"出让。其中住宅用地合计约97.5亩，成交楼面价17000元/㎡。商服用地合计约104.2，成交楼面价1780元/㎡。最终均由成都天府辰悦置业有限公司底 价竞得，该公司为大悦城控股集团股份有限公司的附属企业。意味着青羊大悦城项目正式落地蔡桥板块。 | 宗地编号 | 地块位置 | 面积 | 起始价 | 成交价 | 竞得人 | 用地性质 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亩) | 元/m² | 元/m² | | | | | QY09 (070102) : 20 | 青羊区蔡桥街道蔡桥社区6、8组 | 41.8 | 17000 | 17000 | 成都天府辰悅置业有限公司 | 住宅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, with contrasting opinions from business leaders on whether not buying property in the next two years will lead to regret in five years. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of June 2023, the number of cities experiencing a decline in new home prices has risen to 38, an increase of 14 from May, while the number of cities with falling second-hand home prices has reached 63, up by 8 from May [1] - New home transaction volume and area have significantly decreased in the first half of the year, while the number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with 1.99 million units listed in 13 major cities by early June, a 25% increase from 1.59 million at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Government Response - In response to the declining real estate market, local governments have implemented various measures, including relaxing purchase and sale restrictions, lowering deposit rates, and reducing mortgage rates to below 4% [2] - Many cities have also raised the upper limits for public housing loan amounts and allowed the use of public housing balances for down payments to stimulate demand [2] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Business leaders like Cao Dewang argue that real estate is merely a collection of bricks and mortar, predicting a continuous decline in property value and advising the sale of excess properties [4] - Ren Zhengfei shares a similar view, stating that high property prices hinder the development of the real economy and increase operational costs for businesses, suggesting that the current situation is unsustainable [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand for new homes is gradually shrinking, as many families now own multiple properties, and factors such as an aging population, late marriage, and declining birth rates are expected to further reduce demand for new homes [4] - The speculative investment demand is also retreating, as speculators typically buy in rising markets and exit when prices fall, compounded by increasing calls for property taxes that raise holding costs [4] - The impact of the pandemic has weakened the purchasing power of the public, leading to reduced household incomes and more cautious buying decisions, which further suppresses demand for improved housing [5]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments is adjusting the planning scheme for its key project, Jia Hua Tian Jun, located in Haidian, Beijing, due to overall market pressure and intense competition in core areas, resulting in a low sales rate of less than 20% since its opening in January [2][6]. Group 1: Project Overview - Jia Hua Tian Jun is a significant project for Poly Developments in Haidian, focusing on improving housing options in the area [2][6]. - The project consists of two main areas: the East and West zones, with a total land area of 79,000 square meters and a residential floor area of approximately 5.96 billion yuan [3][4]. - The East zone has 852 residential units with a price range of 82,000 to 97,000 yuan per square meter, while the West zone has undergone several adjustments to its planning [3][4]. Group 2: Sales Performance - As of now, the overall sales rate for the project is only 16%, with over a thousand units still available for sale [6]. - The East zone has seen a net signing of 216 units, with an average transaction price of 85,200 yuan per square meter [3][6]. - The West zone's adjustments have led to a change in unit sizes, with a focus on smaller units to cater to market demand [4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competition in Haidian and Chaoyang has intensified due to increased land supply and favorable housing policies, leading to a shift in buyer interest [7]. - Poly Developments has shifted its focus from suburban areas to core regions like Haidian and Chaoyang in recent years, reflecting a broader trend among real estate companies [6][7]. - The project is expected to re-enter the market in the second quarter of next year after undergoing necessary regulatory processes [7].

再者，现在实体经济不景气，很多人收入减少或失业。这就导致居民收入支撑不了当前的高房价，房价 回归到合理的价格已经成为趋势。最后，国内房价连跌了4年，已经失去了赚钱的效应，不少投资客要 么选择退出，要么处于观望状态。正是由于炒房客的退出，未来楼市将逐步回归居住属性。 而对于当前房地产市场的形势，有不少人提出，2026年的房价，究竟会怎么走？实际上，明年的房价， 已经从当前的4大迹象中可以看出结果，先让我们一起来了解一下： 迹象一：大城市核心区域的房价也出现调整 从2022年开始，国内楼市就进入到了长期调整的趋势之中。先是像天津、郑州、石家庄等二三线城市房 价出现下跌。在进入到2023年之后，上海、深圳、广州等一线城市的房价也加入到下跌的队伍中来。截 止目前，全国房价平均跌幅超过了30%。特别是涿州、廊坊、燕郊等环京楼市的价格跌幅超过60%。从 目前情况来看，国内楼市调整的大局已定。 而导致国内各地房价下跌的原因主要有三个：首先，国内楼市存在着较大的泡沫，二三线城市房价收入 之比是20-25，一线城市的房价收入之比达到40。这意味着，当地居民不吃不喝几十年才能买一套房 子。而如此高房价不可能长期持续下去，最终将逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Daxing District, Beijing, reflects a trend of rational pricing in the real estate market, with the winning bid significantly lower than previous transactions in the area, indicating increased supply and challenges in property absorption [1][4]. Group 1: Land Transaction Details - The DX04-0102-6038 plot in Xihongmen Town was sold for a base price of 1.904 billion yuan, with a floor price of 30,000 yuan per square meter [1][3]. - The land covers approximately 2.76 hectares with a planned above-ground construction area of about 63,500 square meters and a plot ratio of 2.3 [2][3]. - The site is strategically located between the Fifth and Sixth Ring Roads, near the planned subway Line 19 East Xihongmen Station, enhancing its accessibility [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - The Xihongmen East area has seen a surge in land sales since 2020, with 10 residential plots auctioned, contrasting with the lack of new housing prior to that year [4][5]. - The recent auction price for the 6038 plot is approximately 28% lower than the price paid by China State Construction for a similar plot last year, indicating a downward trend in land prices amid market adjustments [1][6][7]. - The area is expected to benefit from the development of the Lize Business District and the Capital Business District, with the completion of the subway line projected to improve connectivity significantly by 2029 [3][6]. Group 3: Development Potential and Amenities - The 6038 plot is positioned to develop high-quality residential products due to its lower plot ratio and proximity to transportation infrastructure [2][3]. - The site will include 3,500 square meters of commercial facilities and is designed to integrate with the subway station, enhancing its appeal [2][3]. - The surrounding area boasts established amenities, including large commercial complexes, educational institutions, and healthcare facilities, contributing to a favorable living environment [2][3].

凛冬已至，楼市寒意渐浓。2023年中国楼市风向突变，自四月起，调整之势愈发明显。新房市场颓势尽显，成交面积与成交额双双下滑，更令人担忧的是， 越来越多的城市房价亮起下行红灯。截至七月，百城二手房价格已连续15个月呈现环比下跌，其中七月房价下跌城市数量竟高达96个！更令人震惊的是，北 京、上海、广州、深圳、成都、南京、武汉等13个热点城市，二手房挂牌量在2023年6月已逼近199万套，与今年一月相比，增幅高达25%。 面对如此复杂的局面，关于未来楼市走向，市场上观点针锋相对，形成了泾渭分明的两大阵营。 乐观者认为，当前楼市正经历难得的调整契机。他们坚信，在国家一系列利好政策的扶持下，房地产市场终将触底反弹，迎来新的春天。因此，当下正是逢 低吸纳、抄底楼市的绝佳时机，切莫错失良机。 然而，悲观者则持截然不同的看法。他们认为，政策利好仅仅是短期刺激，难以扭转楼市的长期下行趋势。过去二十年，国内多数城市房价一路高歌猛进， 如今是时候进入新的调整周期了。因此，他们断言，"今明两年不买房，五年后随便挑"绝非戏言。 相较于盲目乐观，我们更倾向于后一种观点，认为"今明两年不买房，五年后随便挑"的可能性更大。原因有以下几点： ...

前期轰轰烈烈的"救市"行动，似乎并未能挽救颓势。当初试图拯救房企的纾困计划，并未能成功止住颓势，烂尾风险再次浮出水面。曾经被寄予厚望，并被 宣传为"国资 AMC"模式救市典范的西安华南城项目，在投入高达50亿元的纾困资金后，仍然难逃失败的命运。中国信达投入的10亿元资金，如今也被划 为"准不良"资产。项目烂尾近两年，数百户业主有家难回，却依旧要按时缴纳房贷。 我的同学便是这不幸中的一员。2022年，他购买了华南城的商铺，原本打算通过租金来偿还房贷。如今，商铺沦为烂尾楼，每月5000多元的月供像一块巨石 压在他的肩上，迫使他不得不兼职送外卖，不敢辞职，不敢生病，生怕断供影响个人征信。 楼市寒意凛冽，观望情绪弥漫。曾经坚信"房价永远涨"的信念，如今在接连不断的法拍房和频频爆雷的纾困项目中逐渐瓦解，让无数人夜不能寐。 即使能够顺利交房，房屋质量缩水、配置降低也已成为常态。湖南大通湖区虽然成功化解了不少问题楼盘，但这样的幸运儿毕竟是少数。更多地方的业主在 收房时都傻了眼：武汉某新盘承诺的人车分流变成了地面停车场，广州番禺某小区的精装房交付使用的却是劣质地板，踩上去摇摇欲坠。业主们维权时，开 发商却拿出合同，声称宣传页 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese real estate market, highlighting the challenges and potential strategies for property owners amidst a significant market downturn. It emphasizes the foresight of Wang Jianlin, who sold off assets in anticipation of market risks, and suggests that selling excess properties now may be a wise decision given the market conditions [1][3]. Market Trends - In 2023, the national sales area of commercial housing in China was approximately 1.117 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, marking the lowest level since 2012. The sales revenue was about 11.66 trillion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, the lowest since 2016 [1]. - The average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities has been declining for 10 consecutive months, indicating a widespread drop in property values [1]. Government Response - In response to the ongoing downturn, local governments have implemented various measures to stimulate the market, including lowering mortgage rates to below 4% and lifting purchase restrictions. Additionally, the central government has introduced major projects, including urban village renovations, which may temporarily stabilize housing prices by increasing demand from displaced residents [1]. Market Saturation - Wang Jianlin pointed out that the real estate market in China has reached a saturation point after over 20 years of rapid development since the housing reform in 1998. The current housing supply and purchasing power have peaked, leading to a likely decline in property prices as both residents and developers reduce leverage [4][6]. Excess Supply - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that China has 600 million residential units, which could accommodate 3 billion people if each unit housed five individuals. This oversupply has become apparent as the market shifts from speculation to a focus on housing for living, indicating a high probability of future price declines [6]. Income Constraints - The purchasing power of the general public has been severely impacted by the pandemic, with many experiencing reduced incomes or unemployment. This has led to a more cautious approach to home buying, suggesting that property prices will likely stabilize with a downward trend [7]. Debt Levels - Since the first round of housing reform began in 1998, the debt levels of Chinese residents have surged from 5% to 71.5%, limiting the potential for further leverage. This context supports the argument that selling excess properties now may be a more prudent choice [7].

Group 1 - The global real estate market in 2025 shows a stark contrast, with UBS data indicating a 10.4% increase in the global real estate index, while China's housing market is in a downturn, with many landlords facing falling prices and unsold properties [1][4] - Major cities worldwide are experiencing rapid price increases, such as Tokyo's core area seeing over a 60% rise in prices over five years, and Seoul's 80 square meter apartments selling for 8.68 million RMB, nearly doubling in four years [1][4] - The price increases in these cities are driven by population growth, rising incomes, and a loose monetary environment, with Australia seeing over 400,000 net immigrants annually and Japan's university graduate employment rate at 98% with a 3.1% increase in starting salaries [1][4] Group 2 - In contrast, China's real estate market is facing a fundamental reversal in supply and demand, with Guangzhou's second-hand housing prices dropping to 25,000 RMB per square meter, a 1.25% month-on-month decline, while some new developments in Beijing sell out quickly [2][4] - The inventory of commercial housing nationwide requires over 23 months to deplete, with cities like Zhengzhou and Wuhan seeing second-hand housing listings exceeding 200,000 units [2][4] - The demand side is under pressure, with marriage rates projected to fall below 5 million in 2024 and a significant decrease in the population of those born in the 1990s compared to the 1980s, leading to a substantial decline in traditional home-buying demand [2][4] Group 3 - The adjustment in China's housing market is not indicative of industry decline but rather the end of a bubble era, with past price increases driven by demographic and policy advantages rather than investment acumen [4][5] - The future of China's real estate market is expected to show a clear stratification, where properties in core urban areas will remain competitive, while vacant properties in third and fourth-tier cities may face significant value depreciation [4][5] - This adjustment is seen as a positive development, allowing housing to return to its fundamental purpose and freeing individuals from the obsession of being "trapped by housing" [4][5]

Core Insights - Shanghai's real estate market shows resilience amid overall market adjustments, with new residential sales prices rising by 5.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in September 2025, leading the performance among 70 major cities in China [1] - In contrast, the national real estate market is experiencing a "stable volume and declining price" trend, with a general decrease in sales prices across various city tiers, although the year-on-year decline is narrowing, indicating a potential easing of market pressures [1] - The strong performance of Shanghai's new housing market is attributed to the high-end residential sector, with six out of the top ten new housing projects in September exceeding an average price of 100,000 yuan per square meter, and the top project exceeding 200,000 yuan per square meter [1] Secondary Market Dynamics - The secondary housing market in Shanghai is undergoing a "price-for-volume" adjustment, with prices dropping by 1% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a significant reduction in price bubbles and laying a solid foundation for market stability [3] - Both buyers and sellers in the secondary market are cautious, with sellers fearing losses and buyers concerned about overpaying, leading to a search for a new equilibrium [3] - Nationally, the secondary housing market reflects similar trends, with increased online property searches but longer listing durations, suggesting that volume increases are being achieved at the cost of price concessions, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities [3] Future Outlook - Industry experts anticipate that policy easing will continue to support transaction volumes in core cities, reinforcing confidence in stable price expectations [3] - For non-core areas in first and second-tier cities, as well as many small and medium-sized cities, the "price-for-volume" strategy will likely dominate in the near term to address inventory issues [3] - The sustainability of Shanghai's "independent market trend" will depend on the continued heat in its high-end market and the evolution of the overall economic environment [3]