Market Expectations - The market generally believes that coal production in the second half of the year will not exceed that of the first half [4][7]. Demand Side - Inventory levels across the industry chain are currently low, with most coal mines facing no inventory pressure. However, a few mines are experiencing some accumulation due to slower price adjustments [9]. - There is a widespread expectation for pre-holiday inventory replenishment, anticipated to start around September 15-20, which typically increases inventory levels by 5-8 days [4][9]. Supply Situation - Most coal mines are currently operating normally, with only a brief production halt during early September for major events. The "overproduction check" policy has made production more cautious but has not led to significant supply shortages [7][12]. - The profitability of coal mines has improved significantly since June, with most now operating at a profit, although the profit margins remain limited [5][8]. Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with pre-holiday inventory replenishment providing some support for coal prices. However, prices are unlikely to replicate the significant increases seen earlier due to poor steel margins and no significant supply shortages [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - The coal market is projected to reach a weak balance between supply and demand in the fourth quarter, with reduced volatility. The performance of the terminal steel market will be crucial in determining demand for coking coal [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in livestock and agricultural product prices, highlighting the increase in pig prices and fluctuations in other agricultural commodities [2][3]. Livestock Prices - As of April 18, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.97 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 37.11 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.24% [2]. - The average weight of market pigs was 128.57 kg, which decreased by 0.24 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product inventory rate was 14.88%, down by 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The recent cold wave caused disruptions in pig transportation, leading to increased prices in regions like Northeast China. The sentiment among farmers to hold onto pigs has strengthened, and there is a rise in secondary fattening and restocking activities, further supporting pig prices [2]. Agricultural Products - As of April 18, the average price of corn was 2268.04 yuan/ton, down by 0.02% week-on-week. The average price of soybean meal was 3395.14 yuan/ton, up by 3.79%, and the average price of wheat was 2427.50 yuan/ton, up by 0.23% [3]. - The corn prices are supported by the US-China tariff dispute and reduced US corn inventory. However, domestic demand remains weak due to cautious purchasing by deep processing and feed enterprises, leading to a stable acquisition price [3]. - The soybean meal prices are rising due to increased import costs and tight supply ahead of the holiday season [3]. - The price of natural rubber was 14625 yuan/ton, down by 1.35%. The market is currently in a weak balance of supply and demand, with high social inventory levels [3].