成本铁幕步步紧逼，政策博弈暗流涌动，钢市风云突变。焦煤价格飙升至1296元/吨，铁矿石维持在755元/吨高位，炼钢成本如同坐火箭般攀升，原料成本 占比突破75%。财务总监的报表触目惊心，但钢厂宁可压缩管理费用，也不愿减产，因为吨钢利润仍创三年新高。 "反内卷"政策悄然转变，7月底的会议文 件删除了"低价"二字，"企业无序竞争"成为新的监管目标，期货多头敏锐地捕捉到这一风向转变。 京津冀地区钢厂接到神秘电话，9月限产方案已在筹备之 中，车间主任们开始提前安排高炉检修，甚至将计划提前至8月下旬。环保督查组已进驻山西，焦化厂加紧防尘措施，但仍难逃被罚款的命运。唐山钢坯贸 易商却对此喜闻乐见，因为限产往往意味着钢坯价格上涨，他们正摩拳擦掌准备囤货。 与此同时，钢材库存持续攀升，五大钢材总库存单周暴增23.47万吨，创下两个月来的新高。热卷社会库存激增10.1万吨，螺纹钢库存同步攀升10.39万吨。 贸易商仓库堆积如山，而工地提货速度却如同蜗牛爬行。高温暴雨天气导致华东地区工地停工率超过40%，卡车司机在仓库门口困倦地打起了瞌睡。 然 而，令人匪夷所思的是，钢价却只是轻微震颤，上海螺纹现货价格坚挺在3250元/吨，期货 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点评 3 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2508 收于 35050 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.14%，持 仓减仓 18097 手至 76908 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/吨，现货对主力升水持稳在 950 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2509 收于 8010 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.93%，持仓减仓 5521 手至 38.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8738 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格涨至 8150 元/吨，现货升 水扩至 165 元/吨。行业最新会议针对防止行业"内卷式"恶性竞争提出 更多要求，多晶硅限产落地有望提速。此前新疆工业硅大厂出现大规模减 产消息，工业硅带动多晶硅向上反弹，多晶硅前期超跌下修复力强于工业 硅。近期多晶硅行业消息频发，交易逻辑逐步转换至多晶硅领涨工业硅。 当前库存高压情况未解，双硅基本面暂未出现实际性改善，消息影响盘面 波动率上升。建议投资者谨慎为上，持续关注双硅比价、跟踪库存拐点与 政策动向。 请务必阅读 ...

Report Information - Report Name: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Aluminum: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season [9]. - Zinc: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news [10]. - Tin: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term [11]. Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 79,920, up 1,930 (2.47%) from June 20. The spot price was 80,160, up 1,790 (2.28%) [7]. - Aluminum (AL2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 20,580, up 115 (0.56%) from June 20. The spot price was 20,940, up 240 (1.16%) [7]. - Zinc (ZN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 22,410, up 565 (2.59%) from June 20. The spot price was 22,406, up 634 (2.91%) [7]. - Tin (SN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 268,870, up 8,310 (3.19%) from June 20. The spot price was 270,500, up 6,500 (2.46%) [7]. - Nickel (NI2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 120,480, up 2,200 (1.86%) from June 20. The spot price was 122,540, up 1,900 (1.57%) [7]. 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge. The average weekly outbound volume in the 4th week of May was 3.54 million tons/week, and in the 4th week of June, it was 3.32 million tons/week, a decrease of 220,000 tons/week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a decrease of 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year. As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the increase in the overall supply of aluminum ingots in late June and the high price of aluminum inhibiting consumption and outbound performance, inventory accumulation occurred as expected. In early July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, inventory may continue to increase steadily. [9] - View: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season. [9] Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices were strong. The macro - market sentiment improved due to macro - easing, and the expectation of interest rate cuts also supported the upward movement of LME zinc. There was a strike by workers at a zinc smelter in Peru, and overseas inventories have been declining recently, which brought uncertainty to the supply side and drove prices up. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. The procurement of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to the rising zinc price and weakening downstream consumption, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, a decrease of 8.58 percentage points month - on - month. Due to the rising zinc price, enterprise procurement willingness was low, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to weakening downstream consumption and high prices, the outbound volume of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of June 30, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and 1,100 tons from June 26. [10] - View: Zinc supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news. [10] Tin - Logic: Overseas supply remains tight, domestic smelting enterprise inventories are low, and the operating rate has decreased. Although future supply is expected to be loose, short - term supply tightness continues to support tin prices. Downstream demand has not changed much, but there are signs of slowing growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and home appliances, which may put some pressure on tin. [11] - View: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term. [11] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from June 20 to June 27, up 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, up 30 year - on - year; the average import bauxite price index was 74.21 US dollars/ton on June 27, a decrease of 0.22 from June 20 and an increase of 2.04 year - on - year. The port arrival volume on June 27 was 4.8992 million tons, an increase of 698,300 tons from June 20 and 716,400 tons year - on - year; the port outbound volume was 3.7212 million tons, a decrease of 783,300 tons from June 20 and an increase of 13,100 tons year - on - year. [15][18] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan on June 27 was 3,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from June 20 and 790 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,866.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 from June 20 and an increase of 47.8 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 from June 20 and 957.58 year - on - year. [21] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on June 27 was 16,864.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.37 from June 20 and 1,096.24 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 from June 20 and 80 year - on - year. The operating rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy all had certain changes. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on June 26 was 103,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 19 and 57,200 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 119,300 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from June 19 and 67,200 tons year - on - year; the social inventory on June 30 was 468,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 295,000 tons year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on June 23 was 108,800 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from June 16 and an increase of 11,100 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory on June 27 was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from June 20 and 167,910 tons year - on - year; the LME inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons from June 20 and a decrease of 687,675 tons year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM A00 aluminum also had corresponding changes. [23][27][32][33] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The domestic zinc concentrate price on June 27 was 17,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 3,090 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,600 yuan/metal ton from June 20, an increase of 1,300 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 65.25 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 9.98 from June 20. The enterprise production profit was 4,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 2,548 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 988.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 558.63 from June 20 and 906.63 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang on June 27 was 80,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 from June 20 and an increase of 64,000 year - on - year. [49][52] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on June 30 was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 117,300 tons year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on June 26 was 6,000 tons, unchanged from June 19 and a decrease of 7,500 tons year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on June 27 was 43,633 tons, an increase of 769 from June 20 and a decrease of 83,064 tons year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 119,225 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from June 20 and 120,375 tons year - on - year. [55] - Galvanized: The production volume on June 27 was 334,740 tons, a decrease of 4,960 from June 20 and 5,480 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.21, a decrease of 2.39 from June 20 and 0.89 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 14,525 tons, a decrease of 720 from June 20 and an increase of 1,475 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 379,500 tons, an increase of 600 from June 20 and a decrease of 47,680 year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM 0 zinc ingot also had corresponding changes. [58][61][65] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on June 27 was 2,470 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 790 tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 50.97%, an increase of 4.13 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 16.3 percentage points year - on - year. [69] - Tin Ingot: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on June 27 was 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 from the previous period and 8,172 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 9,096 tons, an increase of 251 from the previous period and a decrease of 7,221 tons year - on - year. [72] - Tin Ore: The tin concentrate processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged from June 20, with a year - on - year decrease of 5,000. The tin ore import profit and loss level on June 26 was 10,606.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,635.29 from the previous period and 6,890.96 year - on - year. The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 5,700 from June 20 and 6,250 year - on - year. [74][75][79]

煤焦：焦煤降库 盘面震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 30 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格呈现震荡反弹走势。现货端，焦炭 4 轮提 降落地后偏稳运行；焦煤市场整体维持弱稳运行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 基本面上，上周山西长治沁源、临汾等地煤矿因安全原因出现区域性、 集团性煤矿减产停产，产量下滑明显，影响瘦煤、瘦焦煤等资源短缺，在 下游焦钢企业刚需补库需求带动之下，当地煤价反弹。此外，内蒙古乌海 地区环保检查力度不减，叠加当前市场态势依旧偏弱 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong, and the market is waiting for confirmation of the inventory inflection point. The high premium and low inventory situation persists, and the impact of pre - emptive export demand on subsequent demand needs dynamic observation. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and export shipping capacity. From a micro - fundamental perspective, aluminum ingot social inventory continues to decline, and downstream production and processing profits are under pressure [3]. - Alumina: It is in a dilemma of continuous复产 but low inventory. The disk is slightly supported due to tight warrant supplies. The market expects the inventory inflection point to be approaching, but inventory data from different sources shows divergence. The current price valuation is a key factor in the long - short game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Side: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term structure of SHFE aluminum shows a B - structure, and the B - structure of alumina term spreads narrows. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from - 210 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from - 425 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed, with the premium of Shandong and Henan alumina to the current month decreasing [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of SHFE aluminum have narrowed. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract has decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton, and the spread percentage has decreased from 0.58% to 0.46% [5]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has significantly declined, and the trading volume has also decreased. The open interest of the alumina main contract remains stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded during the week [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [17]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of June 20, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 250,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remain the same. As of May, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. In May, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has increased by 4.487 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants have also increased. Port shipments and sea - floating inventories show differentiation, and the outbound volume has increased while the inbound volume has decreased [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has increased, with the factory inventory decreasing, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing slightly, the port inventory increasing, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreasing. The阿拉丁 full - caliber inventory has continued to decrease, with the factory inventory decreasing by 32,000 tons week - on - week, the electrolytic aluminum plant inventory increasing by 10,000 tons, the port inventory decreasing by 2,000 tons, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increasing by 19,000 tons [42][48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory has continued to decline rapidly. As of June 12, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 13,000 tons to 450,000 tons, and the destocking rhythm has accelerated [49]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot inventory and factory inventory of downstream aluminum rods have increased, and the outbound volume has decreased [54]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed a recovery trend, but the latest data from Steel Union in May showed a decline. The supply of domestic mines in different provinces was differentiated, with production in some provinces increasing and in others decreasing [60][64]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has rebounded. As of June 20, the total operating capacity of national alumina is 88.6 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 100,000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1.715 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week, and the supply - side loosening pattern remains unchanged [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May, the operating capacity remains at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded due to profit repair. As of June 19, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum is 844,700 tons, an increase of 800 tons from last week. The proportion of molten aluminum has seasonally increased [71]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has continued to decline slightly, with a weekly decrease of 5,700 tons. The output of recycled aluminum rods has increased by 540 tons week - on - week, and the output of aluminum rods has increased by 1,100 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream enterprises has declined, and each segment shows differentiation [74][77]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: The profit continues to recover. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to Steel Union is 388.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have all increased, and the profit performance in Guangxi is better than other regions [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but complex global macro - economic situations, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [92]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly declined, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [93]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profits and Losses**: The import profits and losses of alumina and SHFE aluminum have rebounded [101]. - **Export**: In May, the export of processed aluminum materials has significantly weakened. In April 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials show differentiation, and export demand is hindered by trade policy adjustments [103][106]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The transaction area of commercial housing has rebounded, and automobile production has increased month - on - month [111].

证券研究报告 基础材料 金价或偏强，基本金属关注库存拐点 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十二周） 本周观点：金价或偏强震荡，基本金属关注库存拐点 上周美国国际贸易法庭驳回特朗普依据 IEEPA 进行单方面加关税的行政命 令，关税政策扰动有所缓和，但由于目前关税仍未暂停，且不排除特朗普政 府或有进一步提升关税的预期（已对钢铁关税提升至 50%），因此我们认 为金价短期或偏强震荡。基本金属方面，现实端依旧偏强，铜供给端扰动叠 加需求偏强，铝全球可统计库存降至历史低位，伴随淡季来临，建议投资者 关注基本金属的库存拐点。 重点公司及动态 关税博弈、美国债务财政扩张扰动，黄金仍有上行空间，建议配置行业龙头 山金国际。 子行业观点 1）基本金属：近端需求依旧强势，关注库存拐点；2）贵金属：美国关税 政策扰动或推升金价偏强震荡。 风险提示：经济形势不及预期、政策调整、需求低迷、价格波动等。 | 有色金属 | 增持 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 基本金属及加工 | 增持 (维持) | | 研究员 | 李斌 | | SAC No. S0570517050001 | libin ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][77]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is showing signs of recovery, with the industry capacity cycle having bottomed out. The current high inventory levels and peak post-slaughter weights suggest a potential turning point in inventory, which may lead to a long-term profit uptrend after destocking [4][75]. - The report highlights a stable increase in pig prices, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.41%. However, the demand is expected to weaken as the summer approaches [1][24]. - The natural rubber market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices dropping to 13,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% week-on-week. This shift indicates a transition from strong reality to weak expectations in the market [3][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.79% compared to a slight decline in major indices [14]. - The pig farming segment is witnessing a slight increase in slaughter weights, with the average weight at 129.18 kg, down 0.15% week-on-week [24]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, while the average price of piglets increased by 5.2% year-on-year [2][23]. - The inventory of breeding sows remained stable at 40.38 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [2][23]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, suggesting stocks like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential long-term gains [4][75]. - For the post-cycle sector, companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological are highlighted due to the rising demand for feed and veterinary products [4][75]. - In the planting chain, the report suggests investing in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as grain prices are on an upward trend [4][75]. 4. Commodity Insights - The report notes a significant drop in natural rubber prices, indicating a cautious sentiment among manufacturers regarding raw material procurement [3][65]. - The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown mixed trends, with corn prices slightly increasing while soybean meal prices have decreased [50][54].

Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market in China has experienced significant price volatility since 2025, primarily due to a mismatch in supply and demand, with factors such as increased imports and seasonal demand influencing market dynamics [1][4]. Price Volatility - Soybean meal spot prices have fluctuated dramatically, rising from 2890.9 yuan/ton at the end of last year to a peak of 3716.8 yuan/ton on February 28, then dropping to a low of 3153.2 yuan/ton by April 10, before rising again to 3721.4 yuan/ton at the end of April and falling to 3026.6 yuan/ton by May 20 [1]. - The main soybean meal futures contract also saw two significant upward trends, with a cumulative increase of 4.69% year-to-date, closing at 2966 yuan/ton on May 27 [1]. Inventory Trends - Inventory data shows significant fluctuations, with a "decrease-increase-decrease" trend observed in soybean meal stocks, breaking seasonal patterns [2]. - As of April 25, soybean meal inventory reached a low of 5.9 thousand tons, compared to 46.14 thousand tons in the same period last year and a five-year average of 39.48 thousand tons [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has faced challenges due to slow raw material procurement, holiday shutdowns, and customs delays, leading to unstable operating rates for production facilities [3]. - Average operating rates for the first and second quarters were 46.8% and 47.27%, respectively, compared to 44.41% and 55.49% in the previous year [3]. Improvement in Supply Situation - By May, the speed of imported soybean clearance improved, alleviating shortages at oil mills and leading to a steady increase in processing volumes [4]. - As of May 23, soybean meal inventory at production enterprises was 18 thousand tons, indicating a low inventory turning point after three weeks of slight increases [4]. Market Outlook - The soybean meal market is at a critical juncture, with expectations of a potential turning point in prices due to improved supply conditions and increased processing rates [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while the market currently faces downward pressure from increased supply, factors such as rising demand in the feed sector and cost support from international markets may lead to a recovery in prices [5].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-04-29 市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：市场情绪一般，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3129元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3237元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，全 国库存为882.11万吨，环比上周减少2.47%。其中，钢材库存环比减少5.11%，热卷环比增加2.69%。昨日钢材现货 成交整体一般，昨日全国建材成交12.05万吨。 综合来看：螺纹目前基本面表现良好，产量增长受到利润压制，消费维持韧性，库存降幅扩大。热卷由于关税政 策拖累，板材产销均受到影响，尤其是冷轧和镀锌等相关性较高的品种，受到的冲击较为明显，由于国内钢材的 高性价比，后期可以通过转口等方式，化解部分对美的出口损失，但是需要时间逐步解决。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，铁矿小幅回落 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅回落。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于710.5/吨，跌幅0.49%。现货方面，唐山 港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报价积极性 ...

农产品方面，本周豆粕、小麦现货价格上涨，玉米现货价格下跌 截至4月18日，玉米现货均价为2268.04元/吨，环比下跌0.02%；豆粕现货均价3395.14元/吨，环比上涨 3.79%；小麦现货均价为2427.50元/吨，环比上涨0.23%。玉米方面，中美关税争端及美玉米库存下调对国 内玉米价格形成支撑。国内东北产区基层余粮见底，贸易商挺价意愿强，但深加工及饲企因利润不佳采购 谨慎，市场成交清淡，企业收购价持稳，短期供需双弱，玉米价格维持震荡格局。豆粕方面，国内豆粕受 进口成本抬升影响震荡上行，现货因供应偏紧及节前备货支撑短期价格。天然橡胶价格下跌。截至4月18 日，国内天然橡胶期货价格为14625元/吨，环比下跌1.35%。宏观事件对胶价的冲击短期告一段落，本周 回归橡胶基本面博弈，一方面，收储利多落地，对盘面提振相对有限，另一方面，库存方向仍不清晰，社 会库存维持高位，青岛库存小幅去库。当前市场呈现供需弱平衡，预计胶价维持震荡，后续关注开割进度 及库存变化。 风险分析： 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动。 发布日期： 2025-04-20 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： ...