今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】美国政府计划利用五角大楼开发的人工智能 项目，为关键矿产制定参考价格，以支撑其构建全球金属贸易 集团的计划，首批将聚焦锗、镓、锑、钨四种金属，随后将逐 步扩大覆盖范围。评：稀有金属需求持续有支撑，但是白银更 多关注黄金的波动，节假日期间市场风险偏好有所减弱，白银 做多力量小于黄金。关注后续美联储政策预期，白银跟随黄金 被动波动，中期暂看高位震荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 【短评-黄金】美联储理事库克表示，AI已引发美国劳动力 市场的代际更迭，可能导致失业率上升，美联储可能无法以降 息应对，货币政策可能陷入两难，降息既无法有效应对结构性 失业，又可能推高通胀。评：美联储理事库克及芝加哥联储主 席古尔斯比均表示，只是降息不能解决所有问题，市场对降息 预期有所减弱。黄金进一步上涨动力不足，关注美国关税及地 缘扰动，黄金中期或依然高位震荡。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月25日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.c ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 2 月 4 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.10 万吨， 较上一期数据减少 6.11 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 6.48 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 0.37 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存去库，周期内显性外轮卸货 计入 12.73 万吨。江浙一带终端刚需尚稳，主流社会库提货一般，卸货减量下库 存减少。本周华南港口库存呈现累库。广东地区周内少量进口及内贸船只到货， 主流库区提货量一般，库存波动不大。福建地区进口船货继续补充，在刚需以及 节前备货推进下提货量表现稳健，但仍难敌供应增加，库存有所累库。 【宏观面分析】 本报告发布机构 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于财政部、隆众数据、Wind、 金十期货网站。 美国 1 月"小非农"ADP 就业人数不及预期。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 日内小幅震荡，支撑关注日 K 级别 60 日均线，中期继续关注库 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将介入并 购买委内瑞拉石油。由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释 放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信号，WTI 原油暴跌。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 受外盘影响，内盘集体走弱，期货日内下跌近 4%，短期反弹告一段落，存 在进一步下探可能，支撑关注小时级别 60 日均线，重点关注近期宏观因子和短 期情绪变化。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于财政部、隆众数据、Wind、 金十期货网站。 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【宏观面分析】 【基本面分析】 美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据 说话。鲍威尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任 者远离政治。 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙江有烯烃重启，但总体在外轮供应补充下库存积累。华南地区周 内广东仅少量内贸补充，但主流库区提货减弱，因无外轮补充供应，因此库存去 库；福建地区周内无卸货，库存同步去库。 美国至 1 月 23 日当周 EIA 汽油库存降幅录得 2025 年 11 月 7 日当周以来最 大，为连续第 11 周录得增加；当周国内 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙江有烯烃重启，但总体在外轮供应补充下库存积累。华南地区周 内广东仅少量内贸补充，但主流库区提货减弱，因无外轮补充供应，因此库存去 库；福建地区周内无卸货，库存同步去库。。 【宏观面分析】 美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据 说话。鲍威尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任 者远离政治。 美国至 1 月 23 日当周 EIA 汽油库 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly this week, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after the price decline. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and although the overall rebound space is limited by weak downstream demand, it is prone to a low - level rebound. Also, close attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons from the previous period. The inventory in the East China region decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in the South China region decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in methanol port inventory this week is mainly due to the small total unloading volume. The visible unloading of foreign vessels within the cycle was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. The提货 situation in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while the提货 performance in other social warehouses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to the low unloading volume. The inventory in South China ports continued to decline. In the Guangdong region, there were small - scale imports and domestic arrivals during the week, the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas was stable, and the inventory decreased. In the Fujian region, the supply was supplemented by imports and domestic trade, and the inventory fluctuated little under the on - demand consumption of downstream enterprises [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The People's Bank of China will take promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy, and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity. Starting from January 19, 2026, the central bank will lower the rediscount rate and the interest rate of relending by 0.25 percentage points [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures price has slightly declined, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - line level. January is expected to be a period of slowdown in imports, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Buying opportunities after the price decline can be appropriately considered. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state. The overall rebound space is restricted by weak downstream demand, but low - level rebound is likely. Recently, special attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol futures market maintains a slight oscillation, with support at the 60 - day moving average. There's a high possibility of a inventory inflection point in Q1 2026, and investors can focus on buying opportunities after price dips. Currently, methanol is undervalued. Although the overall rebound is limited by weak downstream demand, it is likely to rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was due to a small total unloading volume. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian remained stable [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for products including methanol will be cancelled [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a slight oscillation, and the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart provides support. There's a high chance of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Investors can consider buying after price drops. Methanol is undervalued, and its rebound is restricted by weak downstream demand, but it may rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market of methanol has slightly corrected due to the overall commodity sentiment, and the support level can be observed at the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and investors can appropriately consider buying opportunities after the price drops. Currently, methanol is undervalued, and although the overall rebound space is restricted by weak downstream demand, there may be a rebound at low levels. [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 57,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 16,400 tons. This week, the port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The delivery of 227,100 tons of foreign - flagged ships contributed to the inventory build - up. In Jiangsu, the pick - up from mainstream warehouses along the Yangtze River remained stable, but the shipment from warehouses along the river was weak due to the opening of inland delivery channels. In Zhejiang, with concentrated arrivals of foreign - flagged ships and stable demand, the inventory increased significantly. In South China, the inventory decreased slightly. In Guangdong, with a small amount of imports and domestic shipments and reduced pick - up from mainstream warehouses during the holiday, the inventory changed little. In Fujian, with no ships arriving during the week and downstream consumption, the inventory decreased. [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance has announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled, including methanol. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Although there is short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand, there is pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 57,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 16,400 tons. This week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign vessels unloading during the period. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained stable, but the delivery from the side storage areas along the river was weak due to the opening of the inland delivery space. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrived at the port intensively, and the inventory increased significantly under stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly this week. In Guangdong, there was a small amount of import and domestic trade vessel replenishment during the period, and the提货 volume in the mainstream storage areas decreased due to the holiday, resulting in little inventory fluctuation. In Fujian, there were no vessels arriving at the port this week, and the inventory decreased under the rigid demand of downstream consumption [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The interest rates of short-term large-denomination certificates of deposit in some banks have entered the "0 range", which is similar to that of ordinary time deposits. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year-on-year. China's CPI annual rate in December was 0.8%, with an expected value of 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market rose 1.34% on the day, with support at the 60-day moving average on the daily chart. Short-term inventory accumulation and general downstream demand pose some pressure above. However, as time passes, imports are likely to slow down in January, and there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback. The key to whether the inventory can enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter lies in the restart time of the plants after gas restrictions in Iran [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory inflection point of lithium carbonate has emerged, and it remains strongly volatile. The current price is greatly affected by news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term sharp increases require caution regarding callback risks [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 8, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 140,860 yuan/ton and closed at 145,000 yuan/ton, with a 2.46% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 654,824 lots, and the open interest was 514,467 lots, up from 506,520 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 9,720 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 25,770 lots, a change of 590 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 132,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton, a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,825 US dollars/ton, a change of 70 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Despite the sharp decline in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors yesterday, lithium carbonate remained strong. It was mainly affected by supply - side disruptions and macro news. Some lithium salt plants in Sichuan and Qinghai are still under maintenance, and on January 7, relevant ministries held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry [2]. - According to SMM's latest statistics, the spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 715 tons; the downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,458 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,080 tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None [3].