1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is facing a complex situation with macro uncertainties and micro improvements. The price of copper is supported within the range of 88,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors such as geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the strength of the US dollar have a significant impact on copper prices. Micro factors, including supply and demand dynamics and inventory changes, also play a role in price support. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: Volatility in INE, SHFE, COMEX, and LME has rebounded. LME copper price volatility is around 15%, and SHFE copper volatility is about 23%. [9] - **Term Spread**: The B - structure of SHFE copper has narrowed, and the LME copper spot discount has also narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has expanded. [11][13] - **Position**: Positions in INE, SHFE, and LME copper have decreased. SHFE copper positions decreased by 40,000 to 534,000 hands. [14] - **Fund and Industry Positions**: The net short positions of LME commercial enterprises have decreased. The net long positions of CFTC non - commercial have also decreased. [19] - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot discount has expanded, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has increased. The US copper premium remains at 7.5 cents/pound, Rotterdam copper premium at 190 dollars/ton, and Southeast Asian copper premium at 95 dollars/ton. [23][26] - **Inventory**: Global total copper inventory has decreased, with an increase in LME inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory. COMEX inventory has increased and is at a historically high level. [27][30] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has declined, and that of SHFE copper is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. [31] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year, but processing fees continued to be weak. The port inventory of copper concentrate increased, and smelting losses narrowed. [34][37] - **Recycled Copper**: Recycled copper imports decreased year - on - year, while domestic production increased significantly. The scrap - to - refined copper price difference rebounded but was still below the break - even point, and import profitability narrowed. [38][43] - **Blister Copper**: Blister copper imports decreased month - on - month, and processing fees rebounded. [47] - **Refined Copper**: Domestic refined copper production increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and the profitability of copper spot imports narrowed. [50] 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: In February, the operating rates of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month but were lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded marginally in the week of March 26. [54] - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees are at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have declined. Brass plate and strip processing fees have increased, and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees have remained stable at a low level. [56][60] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased marginally. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a historically low level. [61] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a high level compared to the same period in history, the finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. [64] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption has weakened marginally, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual consumption of copper in China is good, but both actual and apparent consumption have decreased year - on - year. Power grid investment growth has slowed down. [67] - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In February, domestic air - conditioner production was 12.898 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.16%. Domestic new - energy vehicle production was 694,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 21.85%. [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The absolute price of electrolytic aluminum has stabilized at a relatively low level, leading to active spot purchases by downstream users with rigid demand. The spot discount has been continuously repaired, and the inflection point of the social inventory of aluminum ingots may have appeared, with the inventory of aluminum rods continuing to decline. Overseas supply has seen substantial production cuts, and although Middle Eastern aluminum may be diverted for export, overseas inventory is still declining. In the long term, the fundamentals of supply and demand remain optimistic. Although there are concerns about the impact of short - term transportation disruptions in the Middle East on the domestic export market and the potential for stagflation caused by oil prices, it is too early to worry about the US entering an interest - rate hike cycle. Downstream processing plants with hedging needs can buy at low prices for hedging, and speculators can participate after the risk sentiment stabilizes [6] - A Sichuan electrolytic aluminum plant purchased 15,000 tons of Shandong alumina at an ex - factory price of 2,800 yuan/ton. Guinea will clarify its bauxite export restriction policy in early April. Although it is not clear whether this will cause a shortage of bauxite supply, the policy is clearly aimed at price control, and cost support has significantly increased. The supply and demand of alumina remain in surplus, and with the import window open, the domestic supply pressure may further intensify. The futures market's trading of the ore price has led to a continuous premium in the futures price. Spot is converted into warehouse receipts, and the inter - month spread supports the continuous holding of warehouse receipts, so the surplus is not reflected in the spot market. In the short term, the alumina price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and after the price decline, the risk of the futures premium decreases. In the long term, the price center will shift upward due to raw material disturbances [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On March 24, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,470 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was - 140 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,440 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 5 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,850 yuan/ton, closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 23,870 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,565 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 348,478 lots, and the open interest was 261,158 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of March 24, 2026, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.337 million tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 404,811 tons, a change of 1,451 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 427,675 tons, with no change from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 24, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,730 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,780 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 24, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,065 yuan/ton, closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, a change of - 61 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.98%. The maximum price was 3,067 yuan/ton, and the minimum price was 3,004 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 525,678 lots, and the open interest was 231,479 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 24, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, with a price change of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 53,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 81,500 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,604 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 896 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under short-term pressure for adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price corrected from its high. Due to the easing of sentiment and profit - taking by long positions, the previous risk premium was retracted. The stronger US dollar and tightened liquidity expectations suppressed the valuation of commodities [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts have affected the supply in the Middle East, with a decrease in daily output expected [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory, but the pressure has been alleviated, and the inventory accumulation slope has shown signs of moderation. As of March 19, the inventory was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the price of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The Back structure has weakened. Domestic high inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - The decline in zinc prices has led to a potential inflection point in inventory. The fall in prices has spurred downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and with the recovery of downstream consumption, the social inventory inflection point may have emerged. The import ore TC is still slightly declining, and the domestic smelting profit is acceptable, with high smelting enthusiasm. The high energy cost overseas makes the probability of smelting复产 low, and the price decline provides a good opportunity for buy - hedging [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$41.47 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton to 22,810 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -95 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 19, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,150 yuan/ton and closed at 22,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 740 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,726 lots, and the open interest was 57,712 lots. The highest price was 23,150 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,640 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 266,100 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 117,850 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Powell's speech caused market sentiment fluctuations, leading to a rapid decline in the SHFE zinc price, which stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the continuous repair of the spot discount. With the recovery of downstream consumption, the spot market trading activity increased, and the social inventory inflection point may have appeared. The import ore TC is still slightly declining, the import window is closed, and the domestic smelting profit is acceptable, so the smelting enthusiasm is high, and there is a high rigid demand for ore. There may be freight disturbances later, and the ore end supports the zinc price. Overseas, due to high energy costs, the probability of smelting复产 is still low even with rich by - product benefits. The price decline releases some risks of liquidity crisis or recession, providing a good buy - hedging opportunity [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent price rebound of finished products is mainly driven by the increasing expectation of rising raw material costs. After the recent basis convergence, the upward momentum has slowed down. The main contract was under pressure at the off - peak electricity cost yesterday, and the short - term trend may be volatile and consolidating [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Information - **Futures Prices**: On March 18, 2026, for RB2605, the price was 3140 (down 8 from March 17); RB2610 was 3165 (down 3); RB2701 was 3196 (down 1). For HC2605, the price was 3310 (down 3); HC2610 was 3311 (down 3); HC2701 was 3321 (down 3). Night - session closing prices: RB2605 was 3137, RB2610 was 3159, HC2605 was 3310, HC2610 was 3314. The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 22 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 4 yuan. The coil - rebar spread for the May contract was 173 yuan, and for the October contract was 155 yuan [1][2] - **Spot Prices**: On March 18, 2026, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan (up 10), and Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan. Other spot prices include Nanjing Xicheng rebar at 3350 yuan (up 10), Shandong Shiheng rebar at 3310 yuan (up 10), etc. [1][2] 3.2 Important Information - In February 2026, China exported 463 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%; from January to February, the cumulative export was 933 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [2] - On March 18, the iron ore trading volume at major ports in China was 51.80 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7%; the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 8.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% [2] - On March 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3403 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit was a loss of 86 yuan/ton [2] - From March 1 to 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 561,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 3.14 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [2] - In early March, the output of key coal - monitoring enterprises was 64.44 million tons, with a daily average output of 6.44 million tons. The daily average output in early March increased by 380,000 tons (6.3%) compared with the late February, and increased by 90,000 tons (1.4%) year - on - year [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - The spot market trading volume decreased month - on - month, and the prices of individual spot varieties increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton. Currently, the production and sales of the five major steel products are both increasing, and the total inventory continues to accumulate seasonally, with the overall level higher than the same period last year. An inventory inflection point is expected in the near future [2] - In terms of product structure, affected by the relevant production - restriction arrangements during the Two Sessions, the output of hot - rolled coil decreased month - on - month, consumption recovered, and the total inventory decreased slightly; the output of rebar continued to increase, mainly from short - process enterprises. With the recovery of demand, the current inventory pressure is relatively limited [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to expect a volatile market [3]

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The inventory inflection point of steel has emerged, and steel prices will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory depletion and raw material price changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials transaction volume was 88,800 tons, and the spot transaction was weak with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. This week's data shows that steel inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, building materials production and sales increased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production and sales increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. The improvement of steel supply - demand in the peak season and the inventory depletion amplitude will affect prices. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - External stimuli have eased, and iron ore prices will oscillate and correct. In the short term, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly intensified. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose, and high inventory suppresses price performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports decreased slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 518,000 tons, a 10.69% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: High ore prices have continuously stimulated iron ore supply, and the liquidity of some iron ore at ports has been released. After the end of steel mill production restrictions, molten iron production will increase. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not obvious, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The sentiment affects the market, and coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream raw material inventory is high, which suppresses purchasing enthusiasm. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. Some coal varieties in the production area were affected by the price increase in the external market, and the market sentiment improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was stable at around 1,100 yuan/ton. The spot market of coke at ports was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 has accelerated, and the supply is relatively loose. The high downstream raw material inventory suppresses purchasing enthusiasm, so coking coal will oscillate in the short term. For coke, the coking profit is acceptable, coke enterprises have resumed production one after another, and steel mills will also increase production steadily later. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East situation on coal price sentiment [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [7]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and thermal coal prices have rebounded. The supply of coal is increasing, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The prices of some pit - mouth coal in the main production areas have stabilized and increased, and the port coal prices are basically the same. Affected by the price increase in the external market, the market sentiment has improved, and some terminals and intermediate traders have replenished their inventories. The demand for low - calorie coal at ports is better than that for medium - and high - calorie coal, and the overall inquiry demand has increased. The import cost of imported coal is seriously inverted, and downstream tenders have decreased [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the end of the Two Sessions, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The short - term increase in oil and gas prices has not been fully transmitted to coal, so non - power coal demand in the off - season has a greater impact on coal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The processing fee at the mine end remains stable. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead first decline and then rise but the resumption is slow, and the recycled lead remains deeply in a loss pattern. The terminal consumption gradually recovers after a seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. Both domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Spot - On March 4, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.27/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Market News and Important Data - Futures - On March 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 46,772 lots, a change of -6,889 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 59,776 lots, a change of -439 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 16,860 yuan/ton and a minimum of 16,740 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,775 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase compared with the afternoon close of the previous day [2] Market News and Important Data - Inventory - On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a change of -20 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 4, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Be neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid-to-late March and the resumption progress of recycled lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton range. Enterprises with different needs for buying or selling hedges can conduct buying or selling hedge operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities and long - term government bonds, with most expected to show oscillatory trends, and some with specific directional tendencies such as natural rubber being oscillatory and bullish, and soda ash being oscillatory and bearish in the short - term [2][4][5] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: Rare metal demand is supported, but silver follows gold's fluctuations. After the holiday, market risk appetite weakened, and the bullish force for silver is less than that of gold. In the medium - term, it is expected to oscillate at a high level [2] - **Gold**: Fed officials' remarks weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, and the upward momentum of gold is insufficient. Considering US tariffs and geopolitical factors, it may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2] Ferrous Metals - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing upstream inventory. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost [4] - **Iron Ore**: After the holiday, iron - making water production increases while steel enterprises digest inventory. The demand for iron ore is expected to be average. Considering the possible increase in arrivals at ports, there is still pressure for post - holiday inventory accumulation. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [4] - **Rebar**: On the first day after the holiday, most downstream terminals have not started work, and trading volume is scarce. Affected by the decline in iron ore and coking coal futures, rebar futures weakened. In the short - term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [5] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supply - side constraints are strengthened, while demand is not fully activated. High prices suppress procurement willingness, and US tariff policies cause market sentiment fluctuations. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, waiting for inventory inflection points and consumption verification [5] - **Aluminum**: There was a small supply surplus in the global aluminum market at the end of last year due to seasonal consumption decline. Supply has a rigid bottom - support, and the strength of demand recovery will determine the upward space. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The situation between the US and Iran is the short - term market focus. Non - OPEC+ production increases and the release of previously accumulated production by OPEC+ are driving the market into a re - balancing or inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term trading is recommended [6] Chemicals - **Natural Rubber**: During the Spring Festival, overseas futures and raw material prices rose, and overseas production areas are entering the production - reduction period. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work. Natural rubber is expected to oscillate and be bullish [9] - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased, demand decreased, inventory increased, and production profit decreased. Affected by geopolitical factors, asphalt may be supported and run strongly [10] - **PVC**: Supply is abundant, and inventory may continue to accumulate after the holiday. The cost support is weakened. In the short - term, PVC market prices are expected to oscillate [10] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with new production capacity putting pressure on the market. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [11] - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, port inventory is high, and downstream demand has declined. After the holiday, some downstream enterprises are resuming work. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [12] Bonds - **Long - term Government Bonds**: The central bank's MLF incremental renewal continues, and the capital market is loose, which is beneficial for the bond market. Although the stock market had a good start, its impact on the bond market is limited. In the short - term, the upward momentum of the bond market is insufficient, and it may be bullish in the medium - term [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the low - buying opportunities after the methanol price drops, focusing on the recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes, and waiting for the inventory inflection point [3] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of February 4, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.411 million tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 64,800 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3,700 tons. The methanol port inventory decreased this week, with 127,300 tons of visible foreign vessel unloading recorded during the period. The terminal rigid demand in the Yangtze River Delta region remained stable, the提货 of the mainstream social warehouses was average, and the inventory decreased due to the reduction of unloading. The inventory in South China ports increased. In Guangdong, there were a small number of imported and domestic vessels arriving during the week, the提货 volume of the mainstream warehouses was average, and the inventory fluctuated little. In Fujian, the imported cargo continued to be replenished. Although the提货 volume was stable under the rigid demand and pre - holiday stocking, it was still difficult to offset the increase in supply, resulting in inventory accumulation [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The ADP employment number in the US in January was lower than expected. The Ministry of Commerce and other nine units issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping for the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The price fluctuated slightly during the day. The support level should be focused on the 60 - day moving average of the daily K - line. In the medium term, continue to pay attention to the realization of continuous inventory reduction. Appropriate attention can be paid to the low - buying opportunities after the price drops significantly. Emphasis should be placed on recent macro factors and short - term sentiment changes [3]