上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2025 年 08 月 23 日 森马服饰 (002563) ——25Q2 营收恢复同比增长，中期分红比例高达 124% 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 5.55 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 7.48/4.34 | | 市净率 | 1.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 6.31 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 12,257 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,825.76/12,166.06 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.17 | | 资产负债率% | 34.47 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,694/2,208 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 01-22 02-22 03-22 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The newly released "Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" provides an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child until the age of three, with an expected total subsidy of approximately 120 billion yuan by 2025, potentially boosting consumption by about 0.16 percentage points [1][15] - The shift in policy from "relaxing childbirth" to "promoting childbirth" is evident, with various subsidies and support services being introduced at both central and local levels [6][15] - Local subsidies typically range from 3,000 to 4,000 yuan per child per year, with some cities offering higher amounts for multiple children [6][7] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that local subsidy policies have led to a temporary increase in birth rates, particularly in areas where subsidies cover first or second children [9] - Cities implementing broader subsidy policies have seen more significant increases in birth rates compared to those only supporting third children [9] - The impact of these subsidies on consumer spending has been limited, suggesting that the marginal improvement in disposable income may not significantly boost consumption [9] Group 3: International Comparisons - Japan's early subsidy policies initially helped stabilize birth rates, but they have since declined again, indicating that short-term gains may not lead to long-term improvements [12] - South Korea experienced a similar pattern, where subsidies helped stabilize birth rates for a time but have not prevented a subsequent decline [13] Group 4: Market Impact - The implementation of the childcare subsidy is expected to benefit sectors such as maternal and infant products and milk powder in the short term, while education and toy industries may see longer-term benefits [17] - The overall impact on consumption is expected to be moderate and gradual, with the need for additional direct policy support to stimulate consumer spending amid economic pressures [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy in Hohhot is a follow-up to the government's work report, indicating a potential expansion of pilot cities for similar subsidies [2] - Historical examples show that childcare subsidies have positively impacted local birth rates, particularly in lower-tier markets [3] - The new subsidy policy is expected to lower family costs and boost birth intentions, especially benefiting lower-tier markets [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On March 13, Hohhot City released the implementation details for the childcare subsidy program, which includes a one-time payment of 10,000 yuan for the first child, 50,000 yuan for the second child (10,000 yuan per year until the child is 5 years old), and 100,000 yuan for the third child and above (10,000 yuan per year until the child is 10 years old) [1] Analysis and Judgment - The release of the subsidy details marks the first local implementation since the government work report, with expectations for gradual expansion to more cities [2] - Past instances demonstrate that childcare subsidies can significantly enhance local birth rates, particularly in lower-tier cities [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that local childcare subsidy policies are likely to continue being introduced, directly reducing family costs and boosting birth intentions, with lower-tier markets benefiting the most [5] - Beneficiaries include companies in the maternal and infant consumer goods sector, such as retail channels, product brands, and pediatric drug manufacturers, as well as early education and youth training institutions in the long term [5]