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50天后,俄乌冲突是否面临转折点
经济观察报· 2025-07-16 11:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly focusing on the roles of the United States and Germany in military support to Ukraine, and the implications of these changes for European countries' understanding of geopolitical realities [1][18]. Group 1: Key Timeframes - Two critical timeframes are highlighted: 50 days, as proposed by former U.S. President Trump for a peace agreement, and 90 days, as proposed by Ukrainian President Zelensky for extending military mobilization [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. and Germany's Role - The article notes a significant shift in the U.S. role from being a direct supporter to becoming a weapons supplier, with European countries, particularly Germany, taking the lead in military aid to Ukraine [8][12]. - On the same day that Trump met with NATO Secretary General, Germany's Defense Minister visited the U.S. to discuss military aid, indicating Germany's proactive stance [10][11]. Group 3: Military Aid Dynamics - Germany is expected to provide a "Patriot" air defense system to Ukraine, marking a significant event in the EU's military support to Ukraine [13][14]. - Despite concerns about the U.S. ammunition stockpiles, Germany is likely to set an example for other EU nations in military support [12]. Group 4: Future Predictions - The likelihood of achieving a peace or ceasefire agreement within the 50-day timeframe is considered low, and the potential for Trump to impose high tariffs on Russia after this period remains uncertain [15][16].