证券研究报告 能源/基础材料 美印协议下国内炼厂成本优势或凸显 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 09 日│中国内地 动态点评 当地时间 2 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普表示美印已达成贸易协议，将美国对印 度商品的关税从 50%削减至 18%，同时印度将停止购买俄罗斯石油并转而 从美国等购买石油。由于欧盟针对俄罗斯的第 18 轮制裁包括从 26 年初起 禁止进口由俄油加工得到的产品，印度自 25 年 11 月起已逐步减少俄罗斯 石油进口量，导致俄油折价水平显著扩大，1 月末 ESPO 较 Brent 折价较 25 年 10 月末已显著提升超 10 美元/桶至 17.15 美元/桶。我们认为美印"石 油换关税"协议达成或将导致印度俄油进口量进一步下滑，俄油折价水平或 将维持高位，叠加人民币升值潜力，均有望带动我国炼厂原油采购成本优势 进一步凸显。 欧盟制裁叠加美印"石油换关税"协议，俄油折价水平显著提升 据海关总署，2025 年我国原油进口量同比增长 4.6%至 5.8 亿吨，自俄罗斯 /沙特/伊拉克/马来西亚/巴西进口量占比分别为 17%/14%/11%/11%/8%，其 中 25 年 12 月我国原油进口量/俄 ...

Core Viewpoint - In January, Russia's oil revenue fell to its lowest level in over five years, primarily due to declining global oil prices, increased discounts on Russian oil, and a strengthening ruble impacting the fiscal situation [1] Group 1: Oil Revenue Decline - Oil-related tax revenue in January dropped by 50% year-on-year to 281.7 billion rubles (approximately 3.7 billion USD) [1] - Total revenue from oil and gas also decreased by 50%, amounting to 393.3 billion rubles [1] - Oil and gas revenues account for about one-quarter of Russia's total fiscal income [1] Group 2: Price and Discount Dynamics - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 15% year-on-year during the fiscal period [1] - The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude oil was approximately 26 USD per barrel lower than the benchmark Brent crude [1] - A year ago, the discount on Urals crude was just over 12 USD per barrel [1] Group 3: Currency Impact - The ruble strengthened significantly, with an average exchange rate of 78.4368 rubles per USD in December, appreciating nearly 25% compared to the previous year [1]