德银追踪的纽交所保证金债务数据显示，从4月底到9月底的五个月内，投资者杠杆激增32.4%，这一速度仅次于 2000年初互联网泡沫顶峰和2020年8月疫情后刺激期。德银表示，这些历史时点无一例外都是投资风险资产 的"糟糕入场点"。更值得警惕的是，当前杠杆是在历史高位基础上加速——保证金债务占美国名义GDP的比例接 近2021年三季度的历史峰值。 德银认为，市场情绪已从健康的看涨转向了非理性的狂热。其中最关键的证据是投资者借贷买入股票的速度。 在最近五个月里，我们看到了投资者为购买美股而进行的、历史性的快速再杠杆……其速度超过了1999年、2007年和 2021年期间的再杠杆化。唯一比当前增速更快的时期，只有在2000年1月至3月以及2020年新冠刺激后的反弹中出现过。 | | Top 10 5-month increases in NYSE Margin Debt, since 1997 | | --- | --- | | | 5 months ending in: 5-Month Increase in NYSE Margin Debt | | 2000-03-31 | 54.4% | | 2000-02-2 ...

Group 1 - The article draws parallels between current market conditions and previous market downturns, specifically highlighting the significance of margin debt as a potential warning sign [3][4] - Margin debt has reached an all-time high of over $1 trillion, with a notable increase of 18% between May and June, marking the fifth-largest growth rate on record [3][4] - High levels of margin debt can exacerbate market downturns, as traders facing margin calls may be forced to sell stocks, leading to further declines in stock prices [5][7] Group 2 - The rapid growth of margin debt is concerning, as it mirrors patterns observed before the crashes of 2000 and 2008, indicating a potential risk in the current market [4][8] - Investors should be aware that while high margin debt can accelerate downturns, it is the speed of its growth that poses a significant risk [4][5] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring margin debt levels as a key indicator of market health and potential volatility [3][8]

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new historical highs, driven by strong earnings reports and optimism regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and EU [1] - As of the market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,901.92 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.4% to 6,388.64 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.24% to 21,108.32 points [1] - European major indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX index down 0.32% and France's CAC40 index up 0.21% [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - US President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen agreed to hold face-to-face talks on July 27 to discuss trade cooperation and disputes [2] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, citing long-standing trade imbalances, and warned of additional tariffs if the EU retaliates [2] - The EU has approved retaliatory tariffs on US products worth €93 billion, combining two lists of tariffs targeting various goods including agricultural and industrial products [3] Group 3: Speculative Trading Risks - Wall Street analysts have raised warnings about increased speculative trading, which may heighten the risk of market corrections [5] - Goldman Sachs noted that speculative trading levels are at historical highs, with short positions in certain stocks rising over 60% [6] - Deutsche Bank highlighted that margin debt levels among NYSE investors have reached a "heated" state, with over $1 trillion in loans issued to clients [6] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - International precious metal futures saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.04% to $3,338.50 per ounce [8] - Crude oil prices also fell, with the main contract dropping 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, amid complex market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks and macroeconomic concerns [8] - Agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.24% and corn futures down 0.42% [8]