保险估值修复
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国泰海通|非银:资负共振下保险估值修复,居民重配资产亦利好券商
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-12-28 14:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in residents' asset allocation towards savings-type insurance, particularly dividend insurance, in the context of a large amount of bank deposits maturing in 2026. Insurance companies are increasingly focusing on the bancassurance channel and enhancing cooperation with state-owned banks, indicating a broad expansion potential for their networks. It is expected that bancassurance will become a notable growth driver in 2026 [1] - The insurance sector has been systematically undervalued due to market concerns over long-term interest rate declines and rising liability costs, which create profit uncertainties. However, with interest rates stabilizing and the positive impact of increased equity allocations on investment returns, along with adjustments in liability rates and the transformation of dividend insurance, the industry is expected to see a reduction in liability costs. This resonance between assets and liabilities is anticipated to gradually expand the interest margin, leading to a recovery in insurance stock valuations [1] - Additionally, in the context of deposit migration, there is optimism regarding the opportunities for brokerage firms as residents' funds are expected to enter the capital markets directly or indirectly [2]
保险投资策略:重估保险配置价值
2025-09-01 02:01
保险投资策略:重估保险配置价值 20250901 摘要 当前保险板块估值反映了悲观预期,隐含长期收益率假设处于较低水平 (2%-3%),但新单低成本保单流入和权益配置提升有望改善存量负债 成本,稳定投资收益率。 保险板块具备较大的估值修复空间,即使在谨慎假设下,头部险企出现 利差损的风险极低。评估估值应考虑存量业务价值,模型计算显示利差 呈现梯形趋势,中长期修复至一倍以上并非难事。 行业集中度预计趋于改善。"报行合一"和费用管控利好头部险企,储 蓄型、分红型产品竞争核心在于投资收益率,头部险企在投研方面优势 明显。 预定利率高于三年期定存,存在"存款搬家"逻辑;长钱入市背景下, 保险资金规模庞大且符合长钱定义,行业需求稳定,集中度提升,头部 险企规模增长将更快更稳定。 新单业务在一年内对负债成本影响较小,但对投资收益率影响显著,尤 其体现在权益类资产配置上,过去十年保险估值与沪深 300 等股指走势 高度相关。 定价利率从 2.5%下调至 2%,叠加新单低成本保单的推广,将持续改善 存量负债成本,为保险公司盈利能力提升创造空间。 Q&A 保险板块的估值主要受到投资端的影响,即资产端。首先,保险公司的商业模 式 ...
港股异动 | 内险股继续走高 年内险资举牌已达到21次 机构称多因素有力支撑保险估值修复
智通财经网· 2025-07-24 03:18
智通财经APP获悉,内险股继续走高,截至发稿,中国人保(01339)涨3.79%,报6.01港元;中国人寿 (02628)涨3%,报22.3港元;中国太保(02601)涨2.79%,报31.3港元;中国平安(02318)涨1.84%,报55.3 港元。 消息面上,7月以来保险已4次举牌。中邮保险日前发布公告称,公司举牌绿色动力环保H股。这是月内 险企发布的第四份举牌上市公司公告,此前已有泰康人寿举牌峰岹科技H股、信泰人寿举牌华菱钢铁、 利安人寿举牌江南水务。据不完全统计,截至7月22日,年内险资已举牌21次,举牌次数已超过2024年 全年水平,这意味着险资入市步伐明显加快,举牌标的覆盖银行、公用事业、交通运输等行业板块。 招商证券指出,2025年二季度以来A股探底修复,港股迎来系统性价值重估,投资者风险偏好提升,保 险板块凭借资产端强β属性,在市场上涨行情中显著受益。5月证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展 行动方案》,提出强化业绩比较基准的约束作用,公募基金逐步修正行业配置,权重大、欠配严重的保 险板块更是迎来增量配置资金。与此同时,在政策红利持续释放下,行业基本面改善,上市险企分红险 转型有序推进,保费增速 ...