来源：富途牛牛 作者：静姐的财富第六感 最近中国平安 （02318.HK）的表现相当不错，作为一只重磅蓝筹，在恒生指数 （800000.HK）下跌的 情况都稳步上升，不断创出新高。 近期笔者详细阅读了大摩发布的中国平安研究报告，从剖析中国平安的业务、优势、前景、以及估值方 法入手，我们将看到未来一个阶段保险业的重要标的的增长逻辑和想象空间。由于中国平安正处于一个 拓展阶段，迎来了一个新的叙事方向，或有望基于新叙事而价值重估。按照大摩的看法，平保当前市盈 率为2025年预期7.8倍或2026年预期7.1倍。在乐观情况下，预计市盈率或可回升至10倍估值中枢。 保险行业的新估值逻辑 宜用P/EV作估值方法 先从保险行业的估值方法说起。坊间最常见的估值方法不外乎市盈率 （P//E）及市帐率 （P/B）两种。 很多人认为保险公司跟银行同样作为拥有大量流动资产的金融企业，应该可以使用PB作为估值方法。 但是，从大摩的报告来看，其实保险公司的核心价值不在于仅仅当前的净资产，而是在于"有效业务价 值"，即那些"长期保单"的潜在价值，未来持续多年的潜在保费收入和赔付支出，把这些未来现金流按 一定折现率折算到当前，就是保单的有效 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry is divided into life insurance and property insurance, each with distinct business models and financial metrics [1][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Life Insurance Profitability**: Life insurance companies derive profits from three main sources: mortality difference (死差), expense difference (费差), and interest difference (利差). Effective management of expected payouts and expenses can yield additional profits, but the cost of liabilities varies significantly among companies due to hidden components [1][3][4]. - **Property Insurance Simplicity**: Property insurance premium calculation is straightforward, equating to expected payouts plus additional fees. Companies with strong underwriting capabilities can achieve profitability before investments, making their business model more attractive to investors [1][5]. - **Valuation of Life Insurance Companies**: Evaluating life insurance companies requires the concept of policy value, which estimates future costs and revenues, incorporating assumptions about payouts, expenses, and investments to assess policy profitability [1][6]. - **Embedded Value vs. Accounting Value**: The embedded value system focuses on shareholder returns using DCF methods to discount future profits to net assets, while the accounting system emphasizes reported profits through accounting assumptions [1][7]. - **Valuation Drivers**: Key drivers for life insurance company valuations include the growth and realizability of policy profitability. New business value reflects growth expectations, and the high proportion of interest difference makes the sector sensitive to market fluctuations [1][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Core Competitiveness**: The core competitiveness of insurance institutions lies in the linkage between assets and liabilities, necessitating an analysis of their feedback relationship. Companies with high short-term asset yield elasticity also face higher liability costs [1][15][16]. - **Liability Characteristics**: Life insurance liabilities often have long durations (over 20 years) and include hidden costs. The management of these liabilities is crucial to avoid risks associated with high-interest liabilities [1][17]. - **Asset Allocation Considerations**: When allocating assets for life insurance companies, three factors must be considered: cash flow matching, cost-benefit matching, and duration matching. Balancing these factors is essential to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [1][18]. - **Key Elements of Successful Insurance Companies**: Successful insurance companies are characterized by long-term strategic vision from shareholders, capable management, and strong corporate governance, which collectively drive positive operational outcomes [1][19].