来源：富途牛牛 作者：静姐的财富第六感 最近中国平安 （02318.HK）的表现相当不错，作为一只重磅蓝筹，在恒生指数 （800000.HK）下跌的 情况都稳步上升，不断创出新高。 近期笔者详细阅读了大摩发布的中国平安研究报告，从剖析中国平安的业务、优势、前景、以及估值方 法入手，我们将看到未来一个阶段保险业的重要标的的增长逻辑和想象空间。由于中国平安正处于一个 拓展阶段，迎来了一个新的叙事方向，或有望基于新叙事而价值重估。按照大摩的看法，平保当前市盈 率为2025年预期7.8倍或2026年预期7.1倍。在乐观情况下，预计市盈率或可回升至10倍估值中枢。 保险行业的新估值逻辑 宜用P/EV作估值方法 先从保险行业的估值方法说起。坊间最常见的估值方法不外乎市盈率 （P//E）及市帐率 （P/B）两种。 很多人认为保险公司跟银行同样作为拥有大量流动资产的金融企业，应该可以使用PB作为估值方法。 但是，从大摩的报告来看，其实保险公司的核心价值不在于仅仅当前的净资产，而是在于"有效业务价 值"，即那些"长期保单"的潜在价值，未来持续多年的潜在保费收入和赔付支出，把这些未来现金流按 一定折现率折算到当前，就是保单的有效 ...

公开资料显示，于泽1971年出生，1994年毕业于南开大学。自1994年进入保险业以来的履历大致可分为 人保、太平、回归人保的三段。其中，1994年7月—2006年10月在老人保、人保财险天津分公司任职； 2006年10月至—2019年12月在太平保险任职，位至太平财险总经理；2019年11月回归人保，获任人保集 团党委委员、副总裁，成为中管干部。于泽回到人保任职以来的6年时间内，人保集团先后有四任"一把 手"执掌。 其中，于泽出任人保财险掌舵者是在2021年3月。彼时，于泽出任人保财险党委书记、拟任总裁，开始 掌舵这家最大财险公司，至今逾4年时间，于泽成为人保财险近五任"一把手"中执掌时间最长的一位。 其间，不时还有于泽将被调动提拔的坊间传闻出现，不过均未成真。 值得注意的是，作为最大财险公司，人保财险"一把手"具有较大市场影响和较高关注度。人保财险的最 近五任"一把手"中，从王银成到林智勇，再到如今的于泽，已有三任未能平稳落地。 （文章来源：新华社） 中国人民保险集团股份有限公司党委委员、副总裁于泽涉嫌严重违纪违法，目前正接受中央纪委国家监 委纪律审查和监察调查。 官宣！于泽，被查！ 12月6日，据中央纪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Two Rural" strategy initiated by China Life Insurance to enhance rural financial services and support the national rural revitalization strategy, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan's concluding year [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - China Life Insurance has launched the "Two Rural Revitalization" strategic plan to develop rural areas as independent business platforms, focusing on diversified sales, comprehensive services, and brand promotion [1]. - The "Two Rural Star Production Unit System" aims to establish a graded evaluation and construction system for all rural grassroots outlets, ensuring coordinated development and resource allocation [2]. - The "Two Rural Revitalization Model Room Construction" focuses on creating benchmark outlets that excel in development willingness, performance indicators, and innovative models, supported by special policies and funding [2]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Service Improvements - The transformation of previously outdated rural outlets has led to improved facilities and services, creating a welcoming environment for customers and enhancing the overall service experience [3]. - China Life has implemented hardware upgrades in rural outlets, including detailed regulations for design and equipment, and established "Love Stations" to provide convenient services [4]. - The integration of government and insurance services at rural outlets has streamlined processes for residents, such as health insurance payments, significantly reducing the need for travel [5]. Group 3: Product and Service Diversification - The company has recognized the growing insurance needs of rural residents and has innovated its service model by collaborating with local property insurance companies to create a blended insurance service approach [6]. - Successful examples include partnerships between life and property insurance branches, enhancing service efficiency for rural populations [6]. - The ongoing development of rural outlets is characterized by strong management practices, substantial investment, and innovative approaches, aligning with national rural revitalization goals [6]. Group 4: Community Engagement and Trust Building - The upgrades in service and infrastructure have fostered trust and satisfaction among rural residents, with tangible benefits such as accessible services and clear policy communication [7]. - The commitment to local service delivery and community integration has positioned China Life as a key player in promoting inclusive financial services in rural areas [7].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in the profitability of property insurance companies in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 53.5% year-on-year, reaching a historical high of 778.3 billion yuan [11][12] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to both underwriting and investment performance, with the underwriting profit margin rising by 1.04 percentage points to 2.59% and the total investment return rate increasing by 0.78 percentage points to 3.23% [13][14] Profitability Analysis - The median total investment return rate for property insurance companies in the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 2.56%, with a simple average of 3.02% and a weighted average of 3.23% [3][16] - A total of 14 companies achieved total investment returns exceeding 4.0% [3][16] - The median underwriting profit margin is -0.01%, with a weighted average of 2.59%, indicating that larger companies tend to have higher underwriting profit margins [5][22] Company Performance Rankings - The article provides a ranking of the top ten property insurance companies based on net profit and return on equity (ROE) [6][23][24] - The top three companies in net profit are: 1. People's Insurance Company: 336.3 million yuan 2. Ping An Property Insurance: 155.5 million yuan 3. Taiping Property Insurance: 87.7 million yuan [27] Profitability Grouping - Companies are categorized based on their profitability from underwriting and investment: - Group 1: Both underwriting and investment profitable (e.g., People's Insurance, Ping An Property) - Group 2: One profitable, one unprofitable but overall profitable (e.g., Taikang Online) - Group 3: One profitable, one unprofitable but overall unprofitable - Group 4: Both unprofitable [8][26] Investment Return Distribution - The distribution of total investment returns shows a left-skewed negative distribution, with 39 companies reporting a comprehensive investment return rate lower than the previous year [15][16] - The highest total investment return rate recorded is 22.77% by Fubon Property [19][33]

Core Insights - The net profit of five A-share listed insurance companies reached CNY 426.04 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.5% despite a high base from the previous year [1] - Investment assets of these companies totaled CNY 20.26 trillion by the end of Q3 2025, up 10.4% from the beginning of the year, benefiting from a rising equity market [3] Group 1: Profit Performance - The net profit growth rates for the five insurance companies from highest to lowest are: China Life +60.5%, New China Life +58.9%, PICC +28.9%, Taikang +19.3%, and Ping An +11.5% [1] - In Q3 alone, the combined net profit reached CNY 247.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.3%, with China Life and New China Life leading the growth due to investment income elasticity [1] - By the end of Q3 2025, the total net assets of these companies amounted to CNY 23.11 trillion, reflecting a growth of 10.3% from the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Life Insurance and Non-Life Insurance Performance - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance companies showed significant growth, with the following year-on-year increases: PICC Life +76.6%, New China Life +50.8%, Ping An +46.2%, China Life +41.8%, and Taikang +31.2% [2] - The premium income for non-life insurance companies also saw positive growth, with PICC +3.5%, Ping An +7.1%, and Taikang +0.1%, primarily driven by stable growth in auto insurance premiums [2] - The combined loss ratio (COR) for these companies improved, with PICC at 96.1%, Ping An at 97.0%, and Taikang at 97.6%, indicating significant increases in underwriting profits [2] Group 3: Investment Performance - The total investment income for the five insurance companies increased significantly, with China Life +40.7%, New China Life +40.3%, PICC +36.6%, Taikang +26.8%, and Ping An +19.5% [3] - The overall net investment yield declined due to pressure from low interest rates on fixed-income assets, while the total investment yield improved due to a strong stock market [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - On the liability side, the dynamic adjustment of life insurance interest rates and the transformation of dividend insurance are expected to reduce liability costs and enhance NBV value rates [4] - The continuous improvement in underwriting profits is anticipated as non-life insurance companies advance channel integration and refined expense management [4] - The current public fund holdings in insurance stocks are relatively low, with the insurance index PB valuation at 1.42x, which is at a historical low level [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant profit growth, with the life insurance new business value (NBV) continuing to grow at a high rate [4] - In Q3 2025, the group's net profit attributable to shareholders and operating profit after tax (OPAT) increased by 15.2% and 45.4% year-on-year, reaching 385 billion and 648 billion yuan respectively [5] - The cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while the OPAT grew by 11.5% [5] - The life insurance NBV growth rate improved from 39.8% in the mid-year report to 46.2% in the Q3 report [6] - The comprehensive investment return rate for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1 percentage point to 5.4% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the life insurance, property insurance, and banking segments' OPAT year-on-year growth rates were 0.6%, 26.2%, and -2.8% respectively, with life insurance remaining the core business [5] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 64.8 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from life insurance investments [10] Life Insurance Business - The life insurance NBV growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 46.2%, driven by agent and bancassurance channels [6] - The report anticipates continued good growth in the agent channel due to the company's strategy of combining products with medical and elderly care services [6] Investment Situation - The company's investment income for the first three quarters of 2025 was positively impacted by an increase in equity assets, which rose from 616.4 billion yuan in H1 2024 to 942.1 billion yuan in H1 2025 [7] - The core solvency ratio for life insurance decreased by 32.5 percentage points to 135% by the end of Q3 2025 [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for the company for 2025-2027 is 1494 billion, 1785 billion, and 2018 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 19.5%, and 13.0% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratio of 0.66, 0.61, and 0.57 for the years 2025-2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 3Q25, reaching RMB 20.292 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% [1] - Strong performance in both insurance services and investment sectors contributed to the positive results, with insurance service earnings growing by 24.6% and investment earnings increasing by 64.7% [1] - The combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved, decreasing by 2.1 percentage points to 96.1%, indicating better underwriting performance [2] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance grew by 76.6%, significantly outpacing the growth of new premiums [3] - Total investment income for the first three quarters reached RMB 86.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.3%, with an overall investment yield of 5.4% [4] - The company adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 1.22, RMB 1.30, and RMB 1.42 respectively, reflecting positive trends in both insurance and investment performance [5] Summary by Sections Property Insurance - The company has improved its underwriting and claims management, leading to a decrease in COR to 96.1% [2] - Premium income for property insurance grew by 3.1% year-on-year, with motor insurance premiums increasing by 2.7% and non-motor insurance premiums by 3.7% [2] - The underwriting profit for property insurance increased by 130.7% to RMB 14.865 billion [2] Life Insurance - The NBV for life insurance showed a strong growth of 76.6%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [3] - Total premiums for life insurance reached RMB 36.399 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 43.9% [3] - The company expects the NBV growth rate for life insurance to reach 65.9% in 2025 [3] Investment Performance - The investment performance for 3Q25 was robust, with earnings of RMB 26.916 billion, a 64.7% increase year-on-year [4] - The total investment assets grew by 11.2% year-to-date, reaching RMB 1,825.647 billion [4] - The company has effectively utilized its investment strategies to capitalize on market opportunities, particularly in fixed income and equity investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328), with a target price of HKD 22.82 based on a P/B of 1.6x for 2025, driven by improved underwriting profits and investment performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit increased by 50.5% year-on-year, supported by underwriting profit of CNY 14.865 billion, up 130.7%, and total investment income of CNY 35.9 billion, up 33.0% [1] - As of Q3 2025, the company's net assets attributable to shareholders grew by 12.3% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating stable growth [1] - The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at CNY 2.14, CNY 2.40, and CNY 2.55, respectively, reflecting confidence in sustained profit growth driven by asset-liability resonance [1] Group 2: Premium Income and Loss Ratios - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's property and casualty insurance premium income rose by 3.5% year-on-year, with motor insurance premiums increasing by 3.1% due to stable growth in vehicle ownership and recovery in average premiums [2] - Non-motor insurance premium income grew by 3.8%, primarily driven by growth in health insurance [2] - The combined ratio (COR) improved by 2.1 percentage points to 96.1%, attributed to reduced catastrophe claims and enhanced cost control, with Q3 COR estimated at 99.1% [2] Group 3: Investment Performance - The company achieved an annualized total investment return of 5.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a rising capital market and optimized asset allocation [2] - The recovery in the equity market and significant improvement in expense ratios are seen as catalysts for the stock price [2]

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 46.8 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.9% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 20.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, up 48.7% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced natural disaster impacts and improved investment returns [1] - The combined ratio (COR) for the property and casualty insurance business improved to 96.1%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit for 9M25 was 46.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit reached 20.3 billion yuan, marking a 48.7% increase year-on-year, attributed to lower natural disaster impacts and a rising equity market [1] - The total investment return rate was 5.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The property and casualty insurance segment reported premium income of 443.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with underwriting profit of 14.865 billion yuan, up 130.7% [1] - The life insurance segment achieved insurance service income of 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, with a net profit of 14 billion yuan and a new business value (NBV) growth of 76.6% [2] - The health insurance segment generated insurance service income of 23.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with a net profit of 7.9 billion yuan, up 41% [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The total investment asset scale reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an 11.2% increase from the beginning of the year [2] - The company is gradually increasing its allocation to long-duration bonds and expanding its equity holdings, focusing on innovative investment opportunities [2] - Total investment income for 9M25 was 86.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong recommendation rating, with expectations for continued profit growth across all business lines [3] - The property and casualty insurance business is expected to maintain a low COR of around 96%-97% for the full year, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 54.1 billion, 57 billion, and 58.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 26.2%, 5.4%, and 3.4% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com has made a significant move in the Hong Kong insurance market by obtaining an insurance brokerage license, marking a step towards completing its "retail-logistics-financial" ecosystem in the region [3][5][17]. Group 1: License Acquisition and Company Structure - JD.com received the insurance brokerage license under the name "Jingda HK Trading Co., Limited," which was quickly renamed to "JD Insurance Consultant (Hong Kong) Limited" within 48 hours, indicating its strong commitment to the Hong Kong market [5][7]. - The license allows JD.com to operate in both general and long-term insurance sectors, enabling it to offer a diverse range of products including auto insurance, life insurance, and savings insurance [8][13]. - The company is fully owned by JD Innovation Information Technology Co., Ltd., which is ultimately controlled by Liu Qiangdong [5][6]. Group 2: Recruitment and Team Building - JD.com is actively recruiting a local team with specific qualifications, including candidates who hold a Hong Kong insurance license and have experience in the local market [9][10]. - The recruitment emphasizes the need for compliance and management experience, indicating a strategic approach to align with local regulations and industry standards [9][10]. Group 3: Market Context and Growth Potential - The Hong Kong insurance market is entering a high growth phase, with total gross premiums expected to reach HKD 637.8 billion in 2024, and new business premiums projected to grow by 22% year-on-year [13]. - The contribution from mainland visitors to the insurance premiums is significant, accounting for nearly 30% of the total, reflecting strong demand [13]. - JD.com’s entry aligns with the broader trend of internet giants expanding their presence in Hong Kong, which is recognized as a key international financial hub [19][20]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The acquisition of the insurance brokerage license is part of JD.com's broader strategy to build a comprehensive ecosystem that integrates retail, logistics, and financial services [17][25]. - The company aims to leverage its e-commerce platform to drive insurance customer acquisition and enhance operational efficiency through data utilization [23][25]. - JD.com’s long-term vision includes creating synergies between its insurance offerings and asset management services, positioning itself competitively against other major players in the market [11][17]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - JD.com faces intense competition in the Hong Kong insurance market, which includes over 160 insurance companies, leading to significant product homogeneity [22]. - The regulatory environment in Hong Kong is stringent, with high compliance costs and complex rules regarding cross-border capital flows and data privacy [22]. - Building brand trust among Hong Kong consumers, who tend to be loyal to established insurance companies, presents an additional challenge for JD.com [22].