美元兑瑞郎技术分析 11月24日，美元兑瑞郎汇率维持平盘震荡，当日开盘报0.8081，收盘于0.8082，盘中最高触及0.8090， 最低下探至0.8075，全日交投区间清晰。进入11月25日上午时段，汇率延续窄幅整理态势，截至当前最 新报价为0.8083，较前一交易日收盘价微涨0.01%；日内开盘0.8082，最高上探0.8087，最低下探 0.8079。从驱动因素看，24日美股大幅上涨引发市场风险偏好升温，瑞郎的避险属性受到压制，美元兑 瑞郎未能获得有效上行动能；25日美元指数呈现弱势震荡特征，叠加中东地缘局势紧张预期有所回升， 多空因素形成博弈，致使汇率波动幅度受限。 核心驱动聚焦避险情绪与央行政策。24日纳指大涨2.69%，风险偏好升温压制瑞郎避险买盘，美元兑瑞 郎跌幅收窄；25日中东地缘紧张预期回升，瑞郎获得支撑。利差方面，美瑞10年期国债收益率分别为 4.035%、1.25%，利差优势对美元形成基础支撑。 政策预期分化明显：美联储12月降息概率82.9%，美元承压；瑞央行虽暂停加息，但强调警惕瑞郎过度 升值，口头干预预期限制其涨幅。瑞士10月贸易顺差扩大至32亿瑞郎，经济韧性为瑞郎提供隐性支撑， ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 张一帆 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 1：2016-2024 年地方政府债务限额（亿元） 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 zhangyifan@huayuanstock.com 地方政府债限额、发行节奏及利差有何特征？ 地方政府债发行节奏从早期集中于二、三季度，逐步转向全年均衡分布。在 2015 至 2018 年前后，发行量高度集中于二三季度，这主要系当时我国预算审批与下达多 集中在年初，地方政府在获得新增债务限额后，需要时间进行项目准备、招标等前 期工作，导致大量债券实际发行窗口后移至年中，形成"上半年忙审批，下半年忙 发行"的格局。然而，自 2019 年起，特别是 2020 年之后，这一模式发生显著变化， 一季度和四季度的发行规模占比大幅提升。其原因或系政策层面强调"靠前发力" 和"均衡发行"，通过提前下达部分次年债务限额，使得地方能在一季度尽早启动 发行，及时形成实物 ...

Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (1020 - 1026): More Disturbances at the Month - End, CDs May Continue to Fluctuate at a Relatively High Level [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tax payments and new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange may increase capital disturbances. As the transition period of the "interest rate adjustment safeguard clause" approaches the end of November and the maturity scale of CDs is relatively large, CD issuance may still be in demand and remain in a high - level oscillation state in the short term. From a pricing perspective, CDs may continue to fluctuate at a relatively high level, with the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs fluctuating around 1.65 - 1.7%, and the price increase pressure above 1.7% being controllable, allowing for opportunistic layout [2][50] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Increases, and the Term Structure Lengthens - This week (October 20 - 26), the CD issuance scale was 96.324 billion yuan, and the net financing was 34.535 billion yuan (compared to 22.27 billion yuan from October 13 - 19). In terms of supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 14% to 19%, and that of joint - stock banks increased from 36% to 43%. In terms of terms, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 19% to 28%, and the weighted issuance term of CDs rose to 7.08 months (previously 6.07 months). Next week (October 27 - November 2), the maturity scale will increase to 56.431 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management and Other Product Categories Are the Main Secondary - Market Allocation Forces, and the Primary - Market Subscription Rate Rises - In the secondary - market allocation, wealth management and other product categories are the main forces, with weekly net purchases of 52.116 billion yuan and 58.277 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 102.508 billion yuan to 91.151 billion yuan. In the primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose to around 87%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 84% to 85%, that of joint - stock banks increased from 83% to 86%, and that of state - owned banks decreased from 85% to 84% [2][15] Valuation: CDs See a Slight Price Increase in the Primary Market and Slight Yield Fluctuations in the Secondary Market - In the primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs is around 1.68%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 6 - month and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, and the 3 - month variety increased by 2bp. In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 18% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 7.76BP to 10.35BP, at around the 14% quantile, and the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 8.27BP to 6.31BP, close to the 9% quantile. In the secondary - market yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated slightly. The 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, and the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, reaching the 8% historical quantile since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs rose to the 20% historical quantile [2][21][31] Comparison: The Spread between Medium - and Short - Term Notes and CDs Continues to Narrow - In terms of asset comparison, the spread between medium - and short - term notes and CDs continued to narrow. Specifically, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15DMA of DR007 widened from 18.44BP to 23.33BP; the spread with the 15DMA of R007 widened from 9.99BP to 16.68BP; the 1 - year Treasury yield increased by 2.82bp, and the spread between CDs and Treasuries narrowed from 22.29BP to 20.34BP, with the quantile dropping to around 2%; the spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 4.13BP to 3.30BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%; in addition, the spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 5.91BP to 3.02BP, with the quantile dropping to 9% [2][38]

Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of 45.8% in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 5.449 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady profit performance in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% to 3.389 billion yuan [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 40.1% in 2024, ranking first among listed insurance companies, with a calculated dividend yield of 5.4%, placing it second in the industry [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with an anticipated increase in focus on per-share dividend growth in the upcoming period, highlighting its high dividend characteristics [1] Group 2 - The company has shown strong resilience and growth in its individual insurance business, with a year-on-year increase in new business value (NBV) of 44.2% and 43.3% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a 47.3% increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 4.008 billion yuan [2] - The bancassurance channel remains a traditional advantage for the company, benefiting significantly from the "reporting and operation integration," with channel NBV growth of 6.4 percentage points and 7.2 percentage points in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [2] - The contribution of the bancassurance channel to total NBV is significantly higher than that of other listed insurance companies, with a total NBV of 2.868 billion yuan and 2.452 billion yuan in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [2] Group 3 - The company has seen a significant decline in liability costs, with a year-on-year decrease in NBV to effective business value ratio of 80 basis points and 11 basis points, reaching 2.91% and 2.85% in 2024, respectively [3] - The net investment yield and the difference between NBV and effective business value yield are expected to improve, with year-on-year increases of 100 basis points and 31 basis points, respectively [3] - The company is focused on asset-liability matching and controlling liability costs, launching dividend-type products with predetermined rates of 1.75% and 1.5% in the second quarter of 2025 to support stable operations [3] Group 4 - The company has increased its equity allocation in the secondary market, with a rise of 1.28 percentage points to 15.1% as of June, and a stock allocation level that continues to improve, reaching 14.1% [4] - The proportion of FVOCI stocks has increased by 1.4 percentage points to 70.38%, significantly higher than that of peers [4] - The company’s Contractual Service Margin (CSM) has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% to 50.9 billion yuan, maintaining a stable amortization speed [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that Sunshine Insurance (06963) is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.734 billion, 6.056 billion, and 6.788 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 5.6%, and 12.1% respectively, with a revised company valuation of 57.3 billion yuan and a target price of 5.35 HKD per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - The company is projected to have a stable profit growth with a balanced asset-liability performance, and a dividend yield that ranks among the top in the industry. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 45.8% year-on-year to 5.449 billion yuan in 2024, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase to 3.389 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio expected to reach 40.1% in 2024, the highest among listed insurance companies, and a calculated dividend yield of 5.4% as of September 22, ranking second in the industry [2] Group 2 - The company has shown strong resilience and growth in its individual insurance performance, with a year-on-year increase in new business value (NBV) of 44.2% and 43.3% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, and a 47.3% increase to 4.008 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [3] - The bancassurance channel remains a traditional strength for the company, benefiting significantly from the "reporting and operation integration," with channel NBV growth of 43.6% and 53.0% for 2024 and the first half of 2025, contributing 60% of the total NBV [3] Group 3 - The company has seen a significant decline in liability costs, with a high proportion of new liabilities, and is expected to optimize the cost of existing liabilities. The NBV to effective business value ratio is projected to be 12.79% in 2024, ranking third among listed insurance companies [4] - The net investment yield and the difference between NBV and VIF yield are expected to improve, with year-on-year increases of 100 basis points and 31 basis points respectively, indicating a favorable trend in interest margins [4] - The company has increased its equity allocation in the secondary market, with a stock allocation ratio of 15.1% as of June, and a significant portion of FVOCI stocks exceeding 70%, indicating a stable performance compared to peers [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is seen as a significant move that could initiate a broader easing cycle, impacting global economies due to the dollar's role as a primary currency [1][3] - The backdrop for this rate cut includes a sharp decline in U.S. employment rates, with revisions showing a 90% downward adjustment in non-farm payroll data for May and June, leading to a high unemployment rate not seen in four years [3] - The market's initial reaction to the rate cut was a decline in gold and stock prices, while the dollar remained stable, indicating that the positive effects of the rate cut were already priced in by investors [4][5] Group 2 - The interest rate differential between the U.S. and China may lead to capital outflows from China as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, but this could also provide breathing room for the Chinese economy [7] - Predictions suggest that the Chinese yuan may appreciate against the dollar, with forecasts indicating a potential "break 7" level by year-end, attracting foreign investment into Chinese assets [7] - The real estate market in China could benefit from a potential domestic rate cut, which would lower mortgage costs and make housing more accessible, although demand has weakened compared to previous years [8] Group 3 - The rise in gold prices is driven by factors beyond just the Fed's rate cuts, including geopolitical tensions and economic instability, suggesting that future gold price movements will depend on global conflict resolution and U.S. economic performance [10] - The overall sentiment from the Fed's rate cut is positive, indicating a potential for long-term investment opportunities in emerging markets, including A-shares, despite the current high U.S. benchmark interest rates [8][10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry is divided into life insurance and property insurance, each with distinct business models and financial metrics [1][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Life Insurance Profitability**: Life insurance companies derive profits from three main sources: mortality difference (死差), expense difference (费差), and interest difference (利差). Effective management of expected payouts and expenses can yield additional profits, but the cost of liabilities varies significantly among companies due to hidden components [1][3][4]. - **Property Insurance Simplicity**: Property insurance premium calculation is straightforward, equating to expected payouts plus additional fees. Companies with strong underwriting capabilities can achieve profitability before investments, making their business model more attractive to investors [1][5]. - **Valuation of Life Insurance Companies**: Evaluating life insurance companies requires the concept of policy value, which estimates future costs and revenues, incorporating assumptions about payouts, expenses, and investments to assess policy profitability [1][6]. - **Embedded Value vs. Accounting Value**: The embedded value system focuses on shareholder returns using DCF methods to discount future profits to net assets, while the accounting system emphasizes reported profits through accounting assumptions [1][7]. - **Valuation Drivers**: Key drivers for life insurance company valuations include the growth and realizability of policy profitability. New business value reflects growth expectations, and the high proportion of interest difference makes the sector sensitive to market fluctuations [1][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Core Competitiveness**: The core competitiveness of insurance institutions lies in the linkage between assets and liabilities, necessitating an analysis of their feedback relationship. Companies with high short-term asset yield elasticity also face higher liability costs [1][15][16]. - **Liability Characteristics**: Life insurance liabilities often have long durations (over 20 years) and include hidden costs. The management of these liabilities is crucial to avoid risks associated with high-interest liabilities [1][17]. - **Asset Allocation Considerations**: When allocating assets for life insurance companies, three factors must be considered: cash flow matching, cost-benefit matching, and duration matching. Balancing these factors is essential to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [1][18]. - **Key Elements of Successful Insurance Companies**: Successful insurance companies are characterized by long-term strategic vision from shareholders, capable management, and strong corporate governance, which collectively drive positive operational outcomes [1][19].

Core Insights - The insurance industry is witnessing a shift towards mid-end medical insurance as life insurance companies increase their engagement in this market due to declining preset interest rates and the need for diversified revenue sources [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mid-end medical insurance is becoming a key focus for life insurance companies as it serves as a critical entry point for health ecosystem development [1][6] - The recent reduction in preset interest rates has led to a decline in the attractiveness of traditional life insurance products, prompting companies to explore mid-end medical insurance as a viable alternative [2][3] - Life insurance companies are expected to accelerate their entry into the mid-end medical insurance market, driven by both market demand and regulatory changes [3][4] Group 2: Product Development - Companies like Zhongyi Life have already begun developing mid-end medical insurance products in response to market needs and regulatory reforms [3] - The design of mid-end medical insurance must effectively complement social insurance, filling coverage gaps while avoiding overlaps in responsibilities [4] - The introduction of guaranteed renewal clauses in mid-end medical insurance products addresses customer concerns regarding long-term coverage and enhances customer trust [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Life insurance companies are leveraging their customer base and product combinations to enhance cross-selling opportunities in mid-end medical insurance [9] - The operational capabilities of property insurance companies give them an edge in managing short-term medical insurance, while life insurance companies focus on long-term products [7][8] - The integration of health management and value-added services is crucial for mid-end medical insurance, and life insurance companies are well-positioned to build a comprehensive "insurance + health management" ecosystem [9]

Group 1 - The article suggests that analyzing fundamentals may hinder investment opportunities, advocating for a more aggressive approach in the current market [1] - Despite a significant drop in the market last Thursday, a strong rebound occurred on Friday, indicating volatility and potential for recovery [2] - Brokerage firms are characterized as the "riders" of a bull market, attracting retail investors due to their straightforward business model [3] Group 2 - The A-share investment structure is primarily driven by high dividend stocks, favored by institutional investors and insurance funds [5][6] - High-risk preference funds, such as margin trading and speculative capital, are more involved in sectors like technology, themes, and pharmaceuticals [7] - Margin trading has surpassed 2 trillion, with TMT, pharmaceuticals, and military industries being the main sectors for leveraged buying [8] Group 3 - The financing net buying amounts for various industries indicate strong interest in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment, with significant figures in millions [9] - Retail investors prefer brokerage stocks during bull markets due to their simplicity compared to complex sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals [9] Group 4 - The bond market is experiencing challenges, with the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds reaching a 24-year high, indicating potential instability [13] - The divergence between SHIBOR rates and government bond yields suggests a lack of quality assets in banks, leading to lower funding costs [18] - The upcoming reduction in government bond issuance may further complicate the credit environment for banks [19]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Insurance Industry Insights Industry Transition and Profitability - The insurance industry is shifting its profitability model from relying on high sales product ratios to depending on interest margin contributions. The impact of new and renewal policies on the balance sheet is limited, with new policies affecting less than 4% and renewal policies around 11% [3][2][6] - Investment income is crucial for the insurance sector as it directly influences net assets and market risk capital. The reluctance to increase equity asset allocation in the past was due to significant market pullbacks and stringent regulatory indicators [4][2] Asset Allocation and Market Conditions - The current environment favors an increase in equity allocation for insurance companies, driven by a widening long-term interest margin and stable declining yields on 10-year government bonds. If market interest rates remain stable, insurance products will be attractive in the savings and wealth management market [6][4] - The trend indicates that larger insurance companies will have a competitive advantage in cost control, while smaller firms face regulatory constraints that limit their ability to increase equity asset allocation, leading to a more concentrated market [7][6] Valuation and Market Perception - The market currently holds a pessimistic view on insurance company valuations, often unwilling to assign a one-time valuation to existing assets. However, it is suggested that insurance companies can achieve a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio after realizing interest margins, indicating potential long-term valuation upside [8][3] Brokerage Industry Insights Revenue Structure Changes - The brokerage industry has seen a significant shift in revenue structure, with traditional channel business declining and proprietary businesses like direct investment, margin financing, and collateralized loans gaining prominence. Proprietary business is growing the fastest but is constrained by capital limitations [9][10] Profitability Challenges - Brokerages face challenges due to high liability costs and short-term liabilities, leading to a decline in return on equity (ROE). The shift in revenue structure has seen proprietary business increase from less than 10% to 30%-40%, while traditional brokerage income has dropped from 70% to below 30% [10][9] - The cyclical nature of investment banking and the decline in brokerage commission rates further complicate profitability, with the average ROE for brokerages remaining low at 5.9% [17][10] Investment Strategies and Market Trends - Investment strategies should focus on policy cycles, particularly financing-oriented policies, to identify potential trends in the investment landscape. The relationship between policy cycles, stock prices, and earnings is crucial for making informed investment decisions [15][16] - For brokerages with poor fundamentals, viable stock selection strategies include tracking thematic stocks and investing in newly listed or fintech companies, which may offer better opportunities in a complex market environment [18][20] Management Stability and Long-term Performance - The stability of management teams in financial enterprises is critical for long-term strategic execution and performance. Instability can hinder the ability to achieve excess returns, but overcoming these challenges can lead to outstanding performance [14][13] Conclusion - The insurance and brokerage industries are undergoing significant transformations, with shifts in profitability models, revenue structures, and market dynamics. Understanding these changes is essential for identifying investment opportunities and managing risks effectively.