Core Insights - The article discusses the 400th update of the "13精" database, focusing on the performance and sensitivity analysis of life insurance companies in China, particularly regarding their effective business value and new business value. Group 1: Sensitivity Testing Results - The sensitivity testing results indicate how changes in certain factors affect the effective business value (EBV) and new business value (NBV) of life insurance companies. For instance, a 50 basis point decrease in investment return assumptions leads to a -27.9% change in EBV and a -22.4% change in NBV for China Pacific Life Insurance [6][9]. - The trend shows that the impact of investment factors on the value structure of most life insurance companies is declining over time, with the exception of PICC Health, which has the lowest investment sensitivity among the analyzed companies [6][9]. - The effective business value of China Pacific Life Insurance under various scenarios demonstrates significant fluctuations based on changes in assumptions such as mortality rates and expense ratios [7][18]. Group 2: Business Value Analysis - The effective business value represents the present value of future profits from existing policies, while the new business value reflects the profitability of newly sold policies. Both values are crucial for assessing the growth potential and profitability of life insurance companies [5][6]. - The analysis highlights that the sensitivity of the effective business value varies across companies, with New China Life and PICC Life showing the highest investment sensitivity, indicating a greater proportion of income from investment-sensitive products [9][12]. - Conversely, Ping An Life and PICC Health exhibit lower investment sensitivity, suggesting a smaller share of income from such products [12]. Group 3: Expense Sensitivity - The expense sensitivity testing results indicate that the impact of expense factors on the value structure of all companies is also declining over time [15][18]. - Among the companies analyzed, PICC Life has the highest expense sensitivity, while Ping An Life has the lowest, reflecting differences in how companies manage expense pressures [18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry is divided into life insurance and property insurance, each with distinct business models and financial metrics [1][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Life Insurance Profitability**: Life insurance companies derive profits from three main sources: mortality difference (死差), expense difference (费差), and interest difference (利差). Effective management of expected payouts and expenses can yield additional profits, but the cost of liabilities varies significantly among companies due to hidden components [1][3][4]. - **Property Insurance Simplicity**: Property insurance premium calculation is straightforward, equating to expected payouts plus additional fees. Companies with strong underwriting capabilities can achieve profitability before investments, making their business model more attractive to investors [1][5]. - **Valuation of Life Insurance Companies**: Evaluating life insurance companies requires the concept of policy value, which estimates future costs and revenues, incorporating assumptions about payouts, expenses, and investments to assess policy profitability [1][6]. - **Embedded Value vs. Accounting Value**: The embedded value system focuses on shareholder returns using DCF methods to discount future profits to net assets, while the accounting system emphasizes reported profits through accounting assumptions [1][7]. - **Valuation Drivers**: Key drivers for life insurance company valuations include the growth and realizability of policy profitability. New business value reflects growth expectations, and the high proportion of interest difference makes the sector sensitive to market fluctuations [1][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Core Competitiveness**: The core competitiveness of insurance institutions lies in the linkage between assets and liabilities, necessitating an analysis of their feedback relationship. Companies with high short-term asset yield elasticity also face higher liability costs [1][15][16]. - **Liability Characteristics**: Life insurance liabilities often have long durations (over 20 years) and include hidden costs. The management of these liabilities is crucial to avoid risks associated with high-interest liabilities [1][17]. - **Asset Allocation Considerations**: When allocating assets for life insurance companies, three factors must be considered: cash flow matching, cost-benefit matching, and duration matching. Balancing these factors is essential to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [1][18]. - **Key Elements of Successful Insurance Companies**: Successful insurance companies are characterized by long-term strategic vision from shareholders, capable management, and strong corporate governance, which collectively drive positive operational outcomes [1][19].

重估保险配置价值——保险行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250709 摘要 2024 年上半年保险行业实现超额收益，尽管新单增速放缓，但新业务 价值增长显著，表明行业整体盈利能力依然强劲。 短期内，保险行业的收益主要来源于估值提升，长期来看，内涵价值贡 献更大。当前 A 股和港股的估值反映出相对悲观的投资收益率假设，估 值百分位处于历史较低水平。 利差损风险较低，新单负债成本持续下降及费用改善，即使长期利率下 行，对上市头部险企的影响也有限，存量负债成本可控。 存量业务的合理估值水平可通过有效业务价值进行评估，该指标具有明 确的敏感性计算，且数值相对保守，能更准确反映企业价值。 基本面不会拖累当前保险行业的估值，报行合一趋势有利于头部公司提 升产品和服务竞争力，政策鼓励头部公司做大做强，储蓄型产品投资收 益是大公司优势。 头部公司在信用背书、渠道及竞争能力方面优势明显，市场份额有望显 著改善，进一步巩固其行业地位。 当前保险板块具备估值修复空间，负债端展望稳定。配置策略上，可选 择弹性较强的新华保险或港股标的，以及具备红利属性的中国平安和中 国太保。 Q&A 如何评价 2025 年上半年保险行业的表现？ ...