崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.21） 宏观及策略研究 总量平稳背后的结构差异——2025 年 12 月经济数据点评 固定收益研究 发行及成交规模增长，收益率多数下行——信用债周报 行业研究 晨会纪要（2026/01/21） 编辑人 国家统计局公布 2025 年第四季度和 12 月经济数据，第四季度实际 GDP 同比增长 4.5%、预期 4.5%、前值 4.8%；规上工业增加值当月同比增长 5.2%、预期 5.0%、前值 4.8%；社会消费品零售总额当月同比增长 0.9%、 预期 1.0%、前值 1.3%；固定资产投资累计同比增速-3.8%、预期-3.1%、前值-2.6%。 地缘局势扰动，金价仍有支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2026/01/21） 宏观及策略研究 总量平稳背后的结构差异——2025 年 12 月经济数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S115 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong performance with a divergence in maturities, while credit bonds entered a bull market independent of interest rate bonds[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a supportive liquidity stance, leading to a significant decline in short-term yields[2] - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation ETFs raised a total of 30 billion yuan on their launch day, reflecting strong market interest[19] Group 2: Credit Bond Performance - Credit bonds experienced an independent bull market, with all major varieties rising more than interest rate bonds[2] - The yield on 30-year government bonds increased by 1.44 basis points, while AAA and AA+ medium-term notes saw yield declines of 2.8 to 3.6 basis points across various maturities[15] - As of July 18, 68% of credit bonds had yields below 2%, indicating a low yield environment[4] Group 3: ETF Impact - The popularity of the Sci-Tech ETFs is comparable to that of market-making credit ETFs, becoming a major driver of the credit bond market[19] - The total scale of Sci-Tech ETFs reached 88.3 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 59.3 billion yuan, and a turnover rate of 6.5% for component bonds[19] - The composition of the first batch of Sci-Tech ETFs is primarily high-rated bonds, with significant representation from transportation, public utilities, and construction sectors[22] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Risks - Current low credit yields and the "fragile" nature of rising credit prices suggest caution in pursuing further investments[4] - Fund managers are shifting from long-term to more liquid bonds, indicating a defensive strategy amid market volatility[4] - Risks include unexpected financing policy changes and potential credit events, which could impact market stability[60]