| 基金代 | 基金简称 | 今日涨跌 | 今日成交额 | 较上一交易日增 | 环比增 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 码 | | 幅 | | 加 | 幅 | | 588000 | 华夏上证科创板50成份ETF | 4.38% | 60.83亿元 | 29.53亿元 | 94.37% | | 588080 | 易方达上证科创板50ETF | 4.23% | 19.49亿元 | 10.66亿元 | 120.60% | | 588050 | 科创ETF | 4.34% | 5.89亿元 | 3.35亿元 | 131.36% | | 588060 | 广发科创50ETF | 4.20% | 2.77亿元 | 1.28亿元 | 85.79% | | 588090 | 科创50ETF华泰柏瑞 | 4.26% | 2.61亿元 | 7977.57万元 | 44.09% | | 588150 | 南方上证科创板50成份ETF | 4.85% | 8188.06万 | 5854.06万元 | 250.82% | | | | | 元 | | | | 588870 | 汇添富上 ...

一季度债市，和历史经验会有什么不同？20251228 摘要 中央经济工作会议定调及政府债券发行节奏是关键。会议显示传统经济 领域稳健，两会后超预期政策概率小，短期利好债市。政府债券发行进 度或放缓，一季度地方债久期预计不会太长，各地政府将根据未来利率 变动进行调整。 权益市场春季躁动或对债市形成压力，但非直接影响。货币政策出现显 著变化，买断式回购和 MLF 改革增强央行操作灵活性，存款利率下行及 存款置换增加存单利率下行概率。 春节前后配置力量有望增强。大银行 EVE 指标变化和小银行 KPI 制定完 成后，买入策略将明确。利率反弹向上时，保险公司购买超长期国债的 量也在逐渐增加。 新兴经济与传统经济增长效能分化，股、商品行情并非直接影响债市。 可能出现股、商品双牛局面，对整体市场形成积极作用。 利率波动中枢预计在 1.7%至 1.95%之间，上行突破 1.95%的概率不高， 如果存单利率下行，则有望达到 1.75%左右甚至更低。一季度内，有望 出现类似于今年 3 月或 10 月那样的机会窗口。 Q&A 2026 年一季度债市的整体预期如何？ 2026 年一季度的债市预期较为复杂，既有与历史相似的因素，也有 ...

Core Insights - The trading open-end index fund (ETF) market is experiencing significant growth, with the total scale expected to increase from approximately 3.73 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year to about 5.74 trillion yuan by December 15, 2025, marking a growth of over 2 trillion yuan and a growth rate exceeding 53% [2] Policy Support - Recent policies have been instrumental in the development of the ETF market, including the new "National Nine Articles" released in April 2024, which establishes a fast-track approval channel for ETFs and promotes index investment [2] - In June 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued guidelines to include Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs in the fund advisory configuration range, removing previous restrictions [2] - Revised risk management guidelines were published in July 2025 by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to clarify the responsibilities of fund managers and members in ETF risk management [2] Market Performance - As of November 18, 2025, a total of 322 ETFs have been issued this year, with a combined issuance of 2,446.44 billion shares, representing a 79.89% increase in the number of issuances and a 91.83% increase in total issuance compared to the previous year [3] - The stock-type ETFs have become the main force in ETF issuance, with 283 stock-type ETFs issued, accounting for 87.89% of the total issuance, and 1,493.95 billion shares issued, representing 61.07% of the total shares [4] Investor Preferences - The demand for QDII funds is increasing, with 7 QDII funds issued this year, totaling 37.67 billion shares, reflecting strong investor interest in overseas market investment tools [4][5] - Sci-Tech themed ETFs have gained popularity, with 66 ETFs issued this year containing "Sci-Tech" in their names, accounting for 20.50% of total issuances and 501.78 billion shares, also 20.51% of total shares [5][6] - Free cash flow ETFs have also seen significant interest, with 29 ETFs issued this year, representing 9.01% of total issuances and 167.71 billion shares, or 6.86% of total shares [5][6] Product Characteristics - ETFs are favored for their low fees and risk diversification, with product lines expanding into niche areas to better meet diverse investment needs [3] - The strong liquidity, low costs, and transparent holdings of ETFs make them attractive to investors, especially in a recovering market risk appetite [6]

- The report discusses the **ETF Risk Appetite Index**, which has been declining since September 19, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite. This is evidenced by the outperformance of low-valuation stocks over high-valuation stocks and a gradual decline in trading volume. However, the **Active Capital Indicator** shows that speculative funds remain active, particularly in technology-related ETFs like cloud computing, military, and science innovation, while defensive ETFs like dividend and consumption are underperforming. This suggests a fragile market balance where risk appetite is declining, but active funds are narrowing their focus within the technology sector[1][11] - The report highlights the **High-Frequency Trading Regulation Impact**, which aims to level the playing field by increasing transaction delays and removing exclusive equipment. The regulation primarily targets microsecond-level ultra-high-frequency trading strategies, which are mostly proprietary or market-making strategies. These strategies have minimal impact on the overall market due to their small scale, typically under 100 million RMB per product. The report concludes that the regulation has limited influence on the profitability of quantitative strategies, as their excess returns are driven by asset pricing rather than trading speed. The report also notes that market volatility recovery could further enhance quantitative excess returns[2][12] - The report analyzes the **Micro-Cap Stock Trends**, noting that short-term fluctuations are influenced by hedging products, while medium-term trends are supported by incremental funds from quantitative products. Since December, the issuance of quantitative products has remained robust, though the proportion of "air index enhancement" (quantitative stock selection) has decreased by 12%, while "1000 index enhancement" and other index enhancements have increased. This shift has slightly reduced the allocation to micro-cap stocks. Additionally, as market risk appetite declines, funds are concentrating on high-growth sectors, strengthening mid-cap stocks like CSI 500 and CSI 1000. Despite short-term adjustments, the report remains optimistic about medium-term inflows into micro-cap stocks[3][13]

2025年是中国公募基金行业迈向高质量发展的关键一年。伴随5月《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方 案》的正式落地，以及10月国家"十五五"规划对"加快建设金融强国"目标的明确，公募行业正迎来从规 模扩张向价值创造的深刻转型。 而当行业迎来高质量发展的"拐点"，基金管理人又可以如何作为？ 在12月6日的21世纪基金业年会上，博时基金董事长张东围绕"推进公募基金高质量发展"这一主题，发 表了主旨演讲。 在张东看来，高质量发展不仅是政策要求，更是行业不可推卸的时代责任。作为招商局集团旗下的央企 背景基金公司，博时基金将以"四重角色"为基石，聚焦科创投资推进"五大支柱"能力建设，服务新质生 产力发展，并为投资者创造长期价值。 "四重角色"勾勒高质量发展思路 在政策层面，今年5月《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》正式印发，标志着行业迈入全面深化改革 的新阶段。"方案"从多方面发力，立足投资者利益和服务金融强国建设，对行业进行全面重塑。 今年10月，国家"十五五"规划建议亦明确提出，要"加快建设金融强国"，"大力发展科技金融、绿色金 融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"，对公募基金服务实体经济做出指引。 在张东看来，高质量发展 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the credit market will continue to exhibit a low valuation environment with a rate-driven trend, influenced by factors such as reduced supply and increased demand for credit assets [2][3][4] - The issuance of Sci-tech bonds and ETFs has been a highlight in the credit market, with a cumulative issuance of 1.99 trillion yuan by November 25, 2025, significantly surpassing the 1.22 trillion yuan issued in 2024 [2][3] - The report anticipates that the credit market will maintain a low valuation environment, with potential adjustments in long-term credit bonds due to redemption pressures from trading institutions [2][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the transformation year for local government financing platforms, with a focus on the orderly exit of high-level issuers and market-oriented transitions in 2026 [3][4] - It highlights that the net financing of the "two eternals" (二永) is expected to remain low, with a projected range of 200 billion to 400 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting ongoing asset scarcity [4][5] - The report notes that the issuance of local government bonds will not see a new round of overall expansion but will undergo structural reshaping, with a focus on higher-level issuers [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the credit market has shown resilience amid market fluctuations, with credit spreads narrowing during recovery phases [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for credit asset management to seek breakthroughs in a low interest rate environment, including expanding investment directions and developing alternative investment products [6][2] - The analysis of default risks shows a significant decrease in the number of defaults in 2025, with only 8 companies defaulting compared to 19 in 2024, indicating improved credit conditions [20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a surge in new capital inflow into the A-share technology sector, particularly through the launch of multiple semiconductor and AI-focused ETFs, indicating strong institutional interest in these areas [1][2] - Since November 21, 49 new science and technology ETFs have been reported, focusing on popular fields such as semiconductors, robotics, and chips, with the first batch of AI ETFs approved and quickly reaching fundraising limits [1][2] - The market response has exceeded expectations, with a potential influx of over 30 billion yuan if all ETFs reach their maximum fundraising limits, although there is significant variation in fundraising caps set by different fund companies [2][5] Group 2 - There is a noticeable market differentiation, with larger funds attracting more attention and capital, while smaller, homogeneous products struggle to gain traction, leading to concerns about liquidity and potential risks of liquidation for smaller ETFs [2][3] - Institutional investors have increased their positions in technology sectors, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) holdings surpassing 40% of their portfolios, and semiconductor stocks becoming the largest sector by total market value [5] - Despite the enthusiasm for technology stocks, there are concerns about high valuations, particularly in sectors like software development and semiconductors, where P/E ratios exceed 100, while other sectors like batteries and consumer electronics remain below 50 [5] Group 3 - The current AI investment landscape is supported by large, cash-rich companies, contrasting with the 1990s tech bubble, as AI commercialization is progressing rapidly with high demand for computing power, maintaining data center utilization rates around 80% [6] - Morgan Fund suggests that while market enthusiasm may outpace reality, the financial strength of participating companies and the ongoing commercialization of AI technology mitigate the risks of overbuilding in the short term [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics, particularly focusing on the fourth quarter trends and potential investment opportunities in various types of bonds [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Characteristics**: The bond market in Q4 is characterized by a "weak early, strong late" pattern, with limited support for significant interest rate increases due to conservative institutional behavior [2][3]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: There is a potential for a rebound in the bond market, particularly around the 1.85 support level, with short-term opportunities in high-rated credit bonds and perpetual bonds [1][5]. 3. **Historical Context**: Historical data suggests that the current market conditions present a chance for a rebound rather than a trend reversal, with economic data and issuance volumes having minimal impact on the bond market [2][3]. 4. **Technical Indicators**: The 30-year and 10-year government bond yield spread is nearing a bottom, indicating limited further downside potential. The technical patterns in government bond futures require confirmation through volume and price indicators [4][6]. 5. **Market Sentiment**: Recent announcements regarding government bond transactions and new public offering regulations are stabilizing market sentiment, although they are not expected to significantly enhance it [8]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Credit Bond Dynamics**: The supply of convertible bonds is expected to remain tight in 2025, with a projected issuance of over 2 billion, which may lead to a scarcity of convertible bonds and a shift in valuation logic towards equity-like characteristics [11][14]. 2. **ETF Market Challenges**: The narrowing of excess spreads in the Sci-Tech bond market is attributed to valuation adjustments rather than market rumors, with the growth of Sci-Tech ETFs facing challenges due to high foundational investor ratios and limited expansion potential [9][10]. 3. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: For credit products like city investment bonds and Sci-Tech products, a focus on trading strategies rather than simple allocations is advised, utilizing price differences and arbitrage opportunities to enhance returns [12]. 4. **Future Market Indicators**: Key indicators to monitor include absolute and relative yield levels, particularly the 1.85 support level and the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds, as well as the technical patterns in government bond futures [6][7]. Conclusion The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of potential rebound rather than a trend reversal, with specific investment opportunities in high-rated credit bonds and perpetual bonds. Monitoring key technical indicators and market sentiment will be crucial for navigating the upcoming months.

证券之星消息，11月24日，科创ETF（588050）融资买入2209.97万元，融资偿还1967.95万元，融资净 买入242.02万元，融资余额1.84亿元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计1452.12万元，近20个交易日中有 14个交易日出现融资净买入。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-24 | 242.02万 | 1.84亿 | | | 2025-11-21 | 772.29万 | 1.82亿 | | | 2025-11-20 | 437.81万 | 1.74亿 | | | 2025-11-19 | 545.46万 | 1.69 Z | | | 2025-11-18 | -407.56万 | 1.64亿 | | 小知识 融资融券：融资余额增加反映市场做多情绪强化，融资余额减少反映市场观望情绪或者看空情绪强化； 相应的，融券余额增加反映市场看空情绪增强，融券余额减少反映市场观望情绪增强或者看多情绪增 强。需注意的是，由于融资融券的财务杠杆效应，融资融券对投资者来说也是一把双刃剑，好比放大镜 ...

具体来看，股票型基金成为ETF发行主力。数据显示，今年以来发行股票型ETF达283只，占到发行总 量的87.89%，合计发行份额达1493.95亿份，占到总份额的61.07%。其中被动指数型基金发行数量达265 只，而增强指数型基金仅18只。 （原标题：年内ETF发行创历史新高 科创主题成市场焦点） 近年来，伴随资本市场有效性的持续增强，被动指数投资以其"紧密贴合市场走势、运营成本低廉、投 资风格稳定"的显著优势，日益受到投资者的青睐。 公募排排网数据显示，按认购起始日统计，截至2025年11月18日，今年以来全市场共计发行322只ETF 基金，合计发行份额达2446.44亿份，新发ETF数量及份额均已大幅超越去年全年，创出历史新高。 在各类主题产品中，科创ETF今年以来备受市场追捧，数据显示，今年以来发行的322只ETF基金中， 名称中带有"科创"字眼的ETF数量达66只，占到发行总量的20.50%，合计发行份额达501.78亿份，占到 总份额的20.51%。其次是自由现金流ETF，今年以来发行的ETF中，有29只ETF名称中带有"自由现金 流"字眼，占到发行总量的9.01%，合计发行份额达167.71亿份 ...