债券调整后，如何应对？20250828 摘要 当前债市策略建议：小资金可尝试抄底进行小波段操作，而长期或大型 资金应减少组合久期，等待利率明确转向下行时再入场，短端和信用品 种配置胜率较高。 资金面展望：预计三四季度资金面保持宽松，当前资金紧张是债市下跌 的结果而非原因，政府债券供给压力减少及贷款需求疲软将维持资金面 宽松。 权益市场及可转债：权益市场上涨趋势未结束，可转债估值具吸引力， 股市上涨背景下仍有投资价值，对权益市场持乐观态度。 当前不宜系统性减仓：此轮调整为非典型熊陡，与资金紧张关系不大， 不会引发全面赎回或信用补跌，短端品种可持有并在调整时抄底，同时 减少组合久期。 负反馈机制易被切断：低利率环境导致基金久期延长，但整体交易不拥 挤，银行和保险公司配债节奏较慢，杠杆率不高，央行防空转担忧减弱。 利率顶部及价格底部：当前利率顶部及价格底部出现过程更可能是一个 反复筑顶的过程，建议采取右侧交易策略，关注宏大叙事逻辑降温。 物价走势：预计 PPI 将从-4 回到-2 附近，但持续上涨动力不足，PPI 生 产资料向生活资料传导不明显，对 CPI 影响有限，债券市场反应或领先。 近期债券市场的调整并没有明 ...

融券方面，当日无融券交易。 融资融券余额1.85亿元，较昨日上涨1.0%。 证券之星消息，8月27日，科创ETF（588050）融资买入4391.49万元，融资偿还4207.93万元，融资净买 入183.56万元，融资余额1.85亿元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计886.88万元。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-27 | 183.56万 | 1.85亿 | | | 2025-08-26 | 89.30万 | 1.83亿 | | | 2025-08-25 | 614.02万 | 1.82亿 | | | 2025-08-22 | -2888.48万 | 1.76亿 | | | 2025-08-21 | -139.02万 | 2.05亿 | | | 交易日 | 两融余额(元) | 余额变动(元) | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-27 | 1.85亿 | 183.56万 | 1.00% | | 2025-08-26 | 1.83亿 | 89.3 ...

自2004年首只ETF成立，到ETF规模首破1万亿元，用时16年。不过，在近年ETF走上发展快车道后，这类产品规模增长越来越快。首破万亿大关后，不足五 年时间，ETF规模相继突破2万亿、3万亿、4万亿元大关，并在8月25日首次突破5万亿元。回顾此前，ETF规模在4月首次突破4万亿元。换言之，从4万亿到 5万亿元仅用时短短4个月。 8月26日，中基协发布的最新数据显示，截至7月末，公募基金规模突破35万亿元，再创新高。行业整体欣欣向荣的势头下，ETF的大发展也将成为必然。不 过，马太效应之下，ETF在管规模排名前四的基金管理人已占据全市场一半的份额。在业内人士看来，ETF规模突破5万亿元后，头部基金公司优势或将更 加明显。 首破5万亿元大关 ETF规模再创新高。Wind数据显示，截至8月25日，ETF规模首次突破5万亿元，达5.07万亿元。 其中，股票型ETF的规模高达3.46万亿元，占比68.15%。跨境ETF、债券型ETF紧随其后，规模为7541.68亿元、5559.03亿元，占比依次为14.87%、10.96%。 另外，还有商品型ETF、货币型ETF和其他ETF占据小幅比例。 从近一个月来看，份额增长最多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index ETFs reached 18.34 billion yuan today, marking a significant increase of 9.95 billion yuan or 118.52% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Trading Volume Summary - The Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF (588000) had a trading volume of 11.99 billion yuan, an increase of 6.49 billion yuan or 117.91% from the previous day [1]. - The E Fund SSE STAR 50 ETF (588080) recorded a trading volume of 3.28 billion yuan, up by 2.00 billion yuan or 156.23% [1]. - The Science and Technology Innovation ETF (588050) saw a trading volume of 1.17 billion yuan, increasing by 574 million yuan or 96.83% [1]. - Other notable increases in trading volume included the Bank of China SSE STAR 50 ETF (588720) and the Guolian An Science and Technology Innovation ETF (588180), with increases of 885.78% and 211.74% respectively [1]. Market Performance Summary - The SSE STAR 50 Index (000688) rose by 8.59% by the end of the trading day, while the average increase for related ETFs was 9.77% [1]. - The top performers among the ETFs included the Fuguo SSE STAR 50 ETF (588940) and the Huitianfu SSE STAR 50 ETF (588870), which increased by 15.94% and 11.65% respectively [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that as of August 17, 2025, institutional investors hold a significant portion of Huazhi Jie (603400.SH) shares, with a total of 64 institutions owning 81.53% of the company's total shares [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 80.00% of the shares, indicating a substantial increase of 80.00 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - In the public fund sector, 47 new public funds have been disclosed this period, including notable funds such as Ke Chuang 200 and China Europe CSI All Share Software Development Index Initiated A [1] Group 2 - Regarding foreign investment, there is one new foreign institution disclosed this period, namely SUPER ABILITY LIMITED [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong performance with a divergence in maturities, while credit bonds entered a bull market independent of interest rate bonds[2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a supportive liquidity stance, leading to a significant decline in short-term yields[2] - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation ETFs raised a total of 30 billion yuan on their launch day, reflecting strong market interest[19] Group 2: Credit Bond Performance - Credit bonds experienced an independent bull market, with all major varieties rising more than interest rate bonds[2] - The yield on 30-year government bonds increased by 1.44 basis points, while AAA and AA+ medium-term notes saw yield declines of 2.8 to 3.6 basis points across various maturities[15] - As of July 18, 68% of credit bonds had yields below 2%, indicating a low yield environment[4] Group 3: ETF Impact - The popularity of the Sci-Tech ETFs is comparable to that of market-making credit ETFs, becoming a major driver of the credit bond market[19] - The total scale of Sci-Tech ETFs reached 88.3 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 59.3 billion yuan, and a turnover rate of 6.5% for component bonds[19] - The composition of the first batch of Sci-Tech ETFs is primarily high-rated bonds, with significant representation from transportation, public utilities, and construction sectors[22] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Risks - Current low credit yields and the "fragile" nature of rising credit prices suggest caution in pursuing further investments[4] - Fund managers are shifting from long-term to more liquid bonds, indicating a defensive strategy amid market volatility[4] - Risks include unexpected financing policy changes and potential credit events, which could impact market stability[60]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market logic has shifted from economic growth pressure to anti-involution and demand-side stimulus policies, leading to strong performance in the commodity market, which exerts emotional pressure on the bond market [1][2] - There is a divergence in how various asset classes interpret the macro environment and policies, with the bond market showing limited adjustments and weak expectations, while the equity market is rising with policy hopes, and the commodity market exhibits strong bullish sentiment [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - Economic data confirms a stable fundamental outlook, but there may be marginal weakening in the third quarter, increasing expectations for anti-involution policies [1][4][6] - Credit issuance in June increased year-on-year, but this was influenced by a low base from the previous year. A decline in credit issuance in late July suggests potential marginal weakening in the economy for Q3 [1][6] - The current ten-year government bond yield is approximately 1.67%, and the thirty-year yield is close to 1.9%. Rapid increases in yields could lead to overshooting, presenting opportunities for allocation [1][10] - The launch of the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF has led to a rapid increase in its scale, significantly impacting the credit bond market, particularly benefiting high-rated long-term bonds [3][11][14] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Investors in different asset classes have varying views on future anti-involution and demand-side stimulus policies. Bond investors are skeptical, while equity investors are optimistic, and commodity investors are the most bullish [7][19] - The bond market faces potential adjustment pressure if the commodity market's expectations are correct. However, the current liquidity environment is stable, making significant adjustments in the bond market unlikely [9][12] Financial Data and Trends - The overall economic fundamentals remain stable, with supportive policies contributing to a good state in the first half of 2025. However, financial data shows that some metrics are significantly influenced by last year's low base [6][8] - Recent credit bond market performance has been active, particularly in corporate bonds and secondary capital bonds, with notable yield changes [13][18] Additional Insights - The current enthusiasm for the Sci-Tech ETF has led to signs of overheating, with high turnover rates and significant valuation differences among components [16][17] - The divergence in understanding macro policies among different asset classes is expected to persist in the short term, but long-term sustainability of this divergence is questionable [5][7] - If the ETF scale increases beyond expectations, it could ignite overall market sentiment; however, if it falls short, there may be a convergence of component bonds towards non-component bonds [20]

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The report primarily focuses on the growth and trends in the ETF market, including the performance of various ETF categories, fund company strategies, and fee adjustments. No quantitative models or factors are mentioned in the provided documents.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fixed income market and the broader financial environment in 2025, focusing on monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and credit supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Shift**: In Q2 2025, the central bank's monetary policy significantly shifted to align with fiscal policy, leading to a notable decrease in the funding center [1][2]. 2. **Liquidity Pressure**: The upcoming tax period in mid to late July is expected to create liquidity pressure, although the probability of credit growth deviating from macroeconomic trends in Q3 is low [1][4]. 3. **Government Bonds Supply**: The total supply of local government special bonds and national bonds is projected to be between 1.1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, increasing to 1.4 to 1.5 trillion yuan in August and September [1][5]. 4. **Insurance Fund Dynamics**: Due to a slowdown in life insurance premium growth, the demand for pure debt instruments is expected to decrease in the second half of the year [1][6]. 5. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The current interest rate curve is anticipated to shift, with expectations for a rate cut forming after September [1][7]. 6. **Credit Asset Outlook**: New funds are expected to support credit assets in the second half of the year, but low credit spreads may lead to redemptions [3][13]. 7. **Bank Wealth Management Products**: In the first half of 2025, bank wealth management products were primarily allocated to short-term deposits, with a lack of incremental funds [10]. 8. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment remains optimistic for Q3, despite challenges such as potential redemptions and spread adjustments [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Structural Opportunities**: There is a need to focus on structural opportunities and differences among asset types, particularly in the context of limited credit supply [1][8][6]. - **Trading Activity in Rural Commercial Banks**: Trading activity in rural commercial banks has decreased, with investors focusing more on strategic choices rather than frequent trading due to low interest rates and high volatility [9]. - **Public Fund Performance**: Public funds and other products showed significant performance in May and June 2025, with particular attention on the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and expectations of the fixed income market and related financial dynamics in 2025.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increasing trend of fund managers investing in newly launched floating rate funds, indicating a shift in investment strategies within the mutual fund industry [1][1]. - Xingsheng Global Fund announced a plan to invest 20 million yuan in its newly launched Xingsheng Global Hexi Mixed Securities Investment Fund, which is one of the first floating rate funds [1]. - China Europe Fund also reported a 10 million yuan investment in its floating rate fund, committing to hold the investment for no less than three years [1]. Group 2 - Hong Kong-themed ETFs have seen significant inflows this year, with a total increase of 85.674 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 27.97%, bringing the total size close to 400 billion yuan at 391.962 billion yuan as of May 30 [2]. - The number of Hong Kong-themed ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in assets has increased from 8 at the end of last year to 11 by the end of May [3]. - The number of fund managers managing Hong Kong-themed ETFs with over 10 billion yuan has risen from 7 to 10, indicating a trend towards concentration in the market [3]. Group 3 - Some off-market QDII funds have relaxed their purchase limits, with Hai Futong's USD bond fund increasing its limit from 50,000 yuan to 30 million yuan [4]. - A total of 6 new QDII funds have been approved this year, primarily focusing on the Hong Kong stock market, including several ETFs targeting the Hang Seng Technology Index [4]. Group 4 - The issuance scale of ETFs has experienced a decline for four consecutive months, with May seeing a significant drop to 11.068 billion units, down from 34.014 billion units in January [5]. - In May, public fund managers focused on launching products related to digital economy, sci-tech innovation board, and free cash flow themes [6]. Group 5 - In May, there was a notable shift in ETF fund flows, with significant inflows into technology-related ETFs, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and defense, attracting over 20 billion yuan in net inflows [7]. - The top three ETFs attracting the most net inflows in May were Huaxia Sci-Tech 50 ETF, Guolian An Semiconductor ETF, and Jiashi Sci-Tech Chip ETF, with inflows of 4.931 billion yuan, 2.364 billion yuan, and 1.874 billion yuan respectively [8]. Group 6 - Qiu Yang has left his position as the manager of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Artificial Intelligence Mixed Fund due to internal adjustments, with the fund now managed by Wei Chun [9]. - As of the end of the first quarter, the A-class share of the fund managed by Qiu Yang had a scale of 688 million yuan, achieving a return of 14.19% during his tenure [9].