Core Viewpoint - Rich Clarida, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, anticipates significant adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy framework under Kevin Walsh's leadership, particularly in forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Clarida identifies three main areas for potential policy adjustments: forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation related to mortgages [2]. - Walsh has expressed concerns over the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and has criticized the reliance on forward guidance, suggesting it may create confusion regarding future monetary policy [2]. - Walsh's proposal for a new "Treasury-Fed Agreement" aims to facilitate collaboration between the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and mortgage agencies in reducing the balance sheet size [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Inflation Considerations - Clarida notes that Walsh is likely to support at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25%, as the market has largely priced in these cuts [3]. - There is potential for a third rate cut, which could lower the target range to 2.75%-3%, depending on inflation expectations [3]. - Walsh's approach may become more cautious after the initial rate cuts, particularly if inflation expectations rise significantly above current levels [3]. Group 3: Communication Policy Changes - The most significant difference in the "Walsh Fed" compared to previous chairs will be in communication policy, with a likely reduction in detailed forward guidance on future interest rate paths [4][5]. - Clarida references historical precedents where the Fed successfully maintained price stability and supported growth without extensive forward guidance, suggesting a potential shift in communication strategy [5]. - Walsh will need to collaborate with the Federal Reserve's committee to implement these reforms, with Clarida highlighting positive economic indicators such as technology capital spending and tax policy benefits [5].

川观新闻记者 卢薇 7月23日，中国人民银行四川省分行发布上半年四川金融"成绩单"：全省社会融资规模上半年比年初增 加11778亿元，同比增加2150亿元。6月末，全省本外币各项贷款余额12.7万亿元，同比增长11.6%，高 于全国同期增速4.8个百分点；本外币各项存款余额14.4万亿元，同比增长10.8%，高于全国同期增速2.2 个百分点。 数据显示，四川上半年金融运行延续"总量稳、结构优"的趋势，在复杂经济环境中为经济回升和动能转 化提供了有力支撑。 从"稳增长"到"降利率"，金融供给更充沛 截至6月末，全省本外币各项贷款余额12.7万亿元，同比增长11.6%，较年初增加9062亿元。 四川大学经济学院教授、博士生导师顾婧认为，四川贷款增速在今年3月以来连续四个月保持在11.6% 的稳定区间，有力"贷"动了企业发展和居民消费，显示出政策的持续释放效应。 谁支撑起了增长的数字？ 从贷款主体看，企业贷款成为贷款增长的主力军。数据显示，企事业单位贷款较年初增加8099亿元，占 上半年全部新增贷款近九成。透过数字，不难看到企业的发展信心，这也意味着，金融的活力正加速流 向实体经济，经济回升向好的基础愈发牢固。 而 ...