智通财经APP获悉，"债券之王"、太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)联合创始人比尔·格罗斯表示，实际联邦 基金利率可能在2027年中期触底。他还表示，在杰克逊霍尔会议之后，对10年期美国国债持适度看跌态 度。 他表示："如果是这样，那么10年期美国国债收益率达到4%是有可能的。不过，考虑到未来数万亿美元 的供应，4%的收益率实在难以想象。" 他告诉投资者要保持"适度看跌"的态度，预计未来几个月美国10年期国债收益率将在4.15%至4.45%之 间波动。他还表示，目前的收益率"并不便宜，尤其是在扣除税款后"。10年期美国国债收益率目前约为 4.3%。 今年迄今，10年期美国国债收益率已下跌6.3%，但与一年前相比则上涨了13.1%。 他在X平台上发布文章称，杰克逊霍尔会议之后的利率市场走势显示，联邦基金利率将在大约两年后跌 至3%的底部。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes since March 2023 [1] - The FOMC members unanimously acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market [1] Group 2 - Recent labor market data showed that July's non-farm payroll additions were significantly below expectations, with an increase in the unemployment rate and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical revisions to employment data for May and June erased over 250,000 job additions, undermining the perception of a strong labor market [1] - The mixed inflation data in July has caused discomfort within the Federal Reserve, with ongoing tariff effects expected to continue pushing inflation higher in the coming months [2]

当地时间8月20日，美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要。会议纪要显 示，美联储同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。在本次会议的货币政策讨论中，委员 们一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍 然略高，经济前景的不确定性仍然较高。 美联储 为了支持委员会的目标，几乎所有委员都同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%。美联储主 管监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗·沃勒投票反对维持基准利率不变的决定，而是支持将利 率下调25个基点，以防止就业市场进一步疲软。（央视记者 刘骁骞） ...

Financial Market Dynamics and Open Market Operations - The current target range for the federal funds rate is approaching a neutral level, with GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2027 similar to those prepared for the June meeting [1] - Almost all participants at the Federal Reserve's July meeting agreed that maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% is appropriate [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in commodity prices, but the overall effect on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [1] - The market perceives the overall U.S. economy as resilient, but financial markets are beginning to differentiate between individual companies based on earnings scale and quality [1] - Existing data shows that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain relatively stable [1] - Reserves remain in a state of abundance [1] Economic Situation Assessment - Actual GDP growth in the first half of the year has been moderate, with the unemployment rate remaining low and consumer price inflation still slightly elevated [1] - Inflation appears to have stagnated, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on commodity price inflation [1] - The labor market remains robust [1] Financial Situation Assessment - The U.S. financial system is still described as "significantly" fragile, with asset valuation pressures remaining high [1] - Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt are characterized as "moderate," with household debt to GDP ratio at its lowest level in the past 20 years and household balance sheets remaining strong [1] - The debt repayment capacity of listed companies remains strong [1] Economic Outlook - Commodity price increases are expected to be smaller and occur later than previously anticipated, with financial conditions expected to provide slightly stronger support for output growth [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to rise above the estimated natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1] - Tariffs are expected to push inflation higher this year and provide further upward pressure on inflation in 2026, with inflation projected to decline to 2% by 2027 [1] - High uncertainty remains, primarily reflecting changes in economic policy and their related economic impacts [1] Current Economic Conditions and Outlook - Overall inflation remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, but excluding tariff effects, inflation is close to the target [1] - Short-term inflation is expected to rise, with significant uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs, which will take time to manifest in prices [1] - Current demand conditions limit companies' ability to pass tariff costs onto prices [1] - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with employment at or near maximum estimated levels [1] - Economic activity growth is expected to remain low in the second half of the year, with weakened housing demand, increased unsold homes, and declining home prices [1] - Uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, emphasizing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [1] - Concerns about the fragility of the U.S. Treasury market may increase demand for U.S. government bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for maintaining high interest rates, claiming it severely harms the U.S. housing industry and makes it difficult for many Americans to obtain mortgages [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it would keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates [2] - Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts and has suggested that Powell should resign [2] Group 2: Trump's Actions and Statements - Trump stated that there are "no signs of inflation" and that "all signals point to a significant rate cut" [2] - On August 13, Trump mentioned he would appoint a new Federal Reserve chairman ahead of schedule [2] - The White House confirmed that Trump is considering suing Powell over the rising costs of renovations at the Federal Reserve headquarters [2]

Group 1 - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) was reported at 4.39% on July 31, up from 4.32% the previous day [1] - The effective federal funds rate remained unchanged at 4.33% on the same day, consistent with the previous day's rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, labeling him as a poor choice for the position and calling for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate public financial strain [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [2]. - Trump's repeated calls for the Federal Reserve to implement substantial rate cuts reflect his belief that high rates are detrimental to the public [2]. Group 2: Political Commentary - Trump has publicly threatened to dismiss Powell and criticized the Federal Reserve for lacking the courage to take decisive action [2].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a poor choice for the position and stating that appointing Powell was a mistake [1] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve concluded a two-day monetary policy meeting on July 30, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [1] - President Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, claiming that high rates are harming the public [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the news on Shanghai copper is limited, and COMEX copper will move towards the price before the tariff increase [3] - In the short term, the spread between COMEX copper and LME and SHFE copper will still fluctuate, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine a reasonable spread range [7] - The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes [7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Contents Tariff Policy and Copper Price Changes - Trump announced that starting this Friday, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products, and it will be extended to copper - intensive finished products such as cables and electrical components, but core upstream products like electrolytic copper are excluded [1] - Before the news, the US copper price was up to 28% higher than the London copper futures due to market expectations. After the news, the COMEX copper price in the US dropped by over 17%, and the spread with LME copper was quickly narrowed [1] Fed's Action and Copper Price - The slight decline in Shanghai copper price on Wednesday night was mainly due to the rise of the US dollar index, which was mostly caused by the Fed's actions. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, with some members in favor of a rate cut. The description of economic activity was changed, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut was dampened [3] Reasons for COMEX Copper Price Drop - The cancellation of the US refined copper import tariff led to the expected decline in COMEX copper price. The US imports nearly half of its about 160 million tons of annual refined copper consumption due to insufficient smelting capacity. The characteristics of the copper smelting industry conflict with the goals of large US capital companies, which is also an obstacle to Trump's encouragement of manufacturing return [6] - Due to the long - term speculation on copper tariffs, the COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, almost twice that of LME. After the tariff policy change, the large amount of copper in the US cannot be digested in the short term, resulting in a large decline in COMEX copper price [6] Future Outlook - The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be greatly affected [7] - Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, which aligns with market expectations [1] - This decision marks the fifth consecutive time that the Federal Reserve has opted to keep interest rates unchanged [1]