当地时间9月26日，美联储负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼发表了题为《对货币政策决策的思考和未来的挑战》的演讲。 鲍曼在演讲中表示，美国的就业市场"十分脆弱"，通胀也接近联储目标，美联储需要果断且主动地降息。然而不同于此前，鲍曼还认为，美联储 应努力将资产负债表控制在最小规模，并改革其货币政策执行机制。 呼吁果断降息 在周五的演讲中鲍曼表示，美联储应当力求实现尽可能小的资产负债表，并对其货币政策实施机制进行改革。 从长期来看，我的偏好是将资产负债表保持在尽可能小的规模，使准备金余额的水平更接近稀缺而非充裕。 将本来创立的宗旨是临时应对紧急状况的活动制度化，实质上等于把对市场流动性不足的极端紧急反应常态化。 尽管她在2021年支持设立常备回购便利，但仍认为当时"有重大保留意见"。鲍曼支持对该工具作出调整，以强化其只应在市场功能失调时期作为 后盾使用。 值得一提的是，鲍曼由特朗普任命，且被认为是美联储主席的潜在候选人。上周她支持25个基点降息，这与美联储新理事斯蒂芬・米兰的立场形 成对比——米兰在投票中持反对意见，主张降息50个基点。 回到由美联储主动管理资产负债表的框架，将使美联储能得到指示市场压力和市场运作问 ...

美联储理事鲍曼表示，美联储应寻求实现尽可能小的资产负债表规模，并全面改革其货币政策实施机 制。鲍曼称："从长期来看，我倾向于维持尽可能小的资产负债表，使准备金余额接近稀缺水平，而非 充裕水平。"鲍曼认为，回归到美联储积极管理资产负债表的机制，将能更好地显示市场压力和运行问 题。鲍曼称："允许货币市场出现适度的波动，可以增强我们对市场出清点的理解。"她还表示，她支持 美联储的资产负债表上只持有国债，且期限略微倾向于短期 证券，而不是完全与整体市场的期限结构 一致。她说，这将给美联储带来更大的灵活性。鲍曼补充称，美联储应该考虑积极出售其持有的抵押贷 款支持证券（MBS）。（格隆汇） ...

Group 1 - A U.S. senator is attempting to strip the Federal Reserve of a key tool for controlling interest rates, indicating potential scrutiny of the tools policymakers use to influence the economy [1] - The senator's efforts, led by Ted Cruz, aim to terminate the Fed's payment of interest on bank reserves, which could significantly alter how the Fed manages interest rates and its large bond holdings [1][2] - Since 2022, the Fed has reduced its bond holdings by over $2 trillion, with estimates suggesting that the reduction will end when its balance sheet decreases from $6.7 trillion to approximately $6.1 trillion [4] Group 2 - The current interest rate control mechanism, established during the 2008 financial crisis, has been criticized for being an unfair subsidy to the financial sector and has led the Fed to shift from profit to loss [2] - Former Fed officials express concerns that losing the power to pay interest on reserves could force the Fed to aggressively withdraw excess liquidity, potentially leading to higher short-term interest rates [3] - There is a divergence of opinions regarding the appropriate size of the Fed's balance sheet, with some suggesting it could be reduced to $5.9 trillion, while others advocate for a more aggressive reduction to curb speculation [4]

Summary of Phillips 66 (PSX) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Phillips 66 (PSX) - **CEO**: Mark Weisher, CEO since February 2022, has a long history with the company and its predecessors [1] Key Topics Discussed Shareholder Engagement - The company faced a situation with an activist shareholder, resulting in a split board vote with two out of four nominees elected [3] - The process provided constructive feedback from shareholders, helping to clarify the company's strategy and commitment to improving refining performance [4][6] Financial Strategy - Phillips 66 is committed to returning at least 50% of net operating cash flow to investors, prioritizing sustaining capital and dividends [7] - The capital budget is set between $2 billion to $2.5 billion, with $1 billion allocated for growth capital [8] - Proceeds from the sale of a 65% interest in jet assets in Germany and Austria are expected to be around $1.5 billion after tax, which will be used for debt pay down [9] Midstream Expansion - The company is expanding gas processing capacity with projects like Dos Pikos II and Iron Mesa, aiming to add approximately 700 million cubic feet per day of gathering processing capacity [11] - The Iron Mesa facility will be the largest gas gathering and processing facility, addressing reliability challenges and expected to come online in February 2027 [14] Chemicals Segment - CPChem, a joint venture, is currently experiencing one of the longest downturns in the industry but is expected to recover due to increasing global demand and rationalization of non-competitive assets [19][20] - CPChem is generating around $1 billion in EBITDA annually, while competitors are struggling [21] Refining Operations - The company is focused on improving refining reliability and cost control, with a target to reduce costs to $5.50 per barrel by 2026 [29][33] - The closure of the Los Angeles refinery is expected to reduce controllable costs and free up sustaining capital for other uses [30] - The Wilmington refinery closure was driven by a loss of crude advantage and high operational costs [46] Market Dynamics - The company anticipates crude differentials to widen back to $12 to $14 as maintenance and wildfires in Alberta are resolved [40] - Coastal light-heavy differentials are expected to face more headwinds than tailwinds due to geopolitical factors and shifts in crude supply [44] Regulatory Environment - The outlook on Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) is complex, with potential impacts from small refinery exemptions and the EPA's interpretations [51][52] Additional Insights - The company is committed to transparency in refining-related income and is exploring ways to improve comparability with peers [34] - There is an ongoing review of all assets, including chemicals, to assess their value and potential for sale [24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the Phillips 66 conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, financial commitments, and market outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [7]. Core Insights - The securities industry is currently in a strategic opportunity period for balance sheet expansion, transitioning from a cyclical expansion to a resilient expansion phase, with large brokerages leading the way [16][19]. - The expansion of balance sheets is driven by fixed income investments, with a notable increase in contributions from subsidiaries, indicating a shift in operational strategy [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of balance sheet management as a core profit source and a reflection of industry trends, highlighting the need for comprehensive asset allocation and international collaboration [19][20]. Summary by Sections Current Stage of Balance Sheet Expansion - The industry is moving from cyclical to resilient expansion, with total assets expected to reach 12.93 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a 12% CAGR over the past decade [16][21]. Importance of Balance Sheet Management - Balance sheet management is crucial for securities firms, as it directly impacts their operational efficiency and profitability, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation under resource constraints [20][22]. Nature of Balance Sheet Expansion - The expansion is primarily driven by the growth of the capital markets, with a strong correlation between the total assets of the securities industry and the performance of the equity and bond markets [24]. Future Outlook for Expansion - The report anticipates that the balance sheet will continue to expand alongside the growth of equity and bond markets, with significant potential in the derivatives market, which is currently underdeveloped compared to international standards [27][28]. Paths for Balance Sheet Expansion - The report outlines three main paths for expansion: external mergers and acquisitions, internal growth through regulatory innovation, and international expansion [32][39]. Characteristics of the Current Expansion Cycle - The current cycle is characterized by a focus on fixed income investments, stable leverage levels, and increased contributions from subsidiaries, particularly in international markets [17][18]. Comparison with International Peers - Chinese securities firms are still catching up with their international counterparts, with significant room for growth in both scale and core capabilities [18][19]. Recommendations for Investment - The report suggests focusing on leading firms with strong balance sheet management capabilities, such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy, as they are expected to enhance capital returns during the expansion phase [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is encouraging financial institutions to actively use the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) to support effective monetary policy implementation and ensure market stability, despite current market liquidity being ample [1][3]. Group 1: SRF Adjustments - The existence of the SRF is aimed at supporting effective monetary policy and promoting market stability, reflecting the Federal Reserve's understanding of the current market environment and potential risks [3]. - The New York Fed will extend SRF operations from only the afternoon to include morning sessions, completing settlements on the same day, which is a significant step to enhance SRF effectiveness [3][4]. - This adjustment is expected to improve the efficiency of SRF usage and provide more flexibility for the Federal Reserve during the balance sheet normalization process [3][4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The adjustment of SRF operations may impact short-term interest rates, as the Federal Reserve aims to manage market liquidity and avoid significant rate fluctuations [4]. - The Federal Reserve's strategy to enhance SRF efficiency is intended to reduce reliance on its balance sheet while maintaining market stability during the normalization process [4]. - The effectiveness of these strategies will depend on market acceptance of SRF and the Federal Reserve's ability to manage market liquidity [4]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in the balance sheet normalization process, with indications that money market liquidity may be tightening [3]. - As the Federal Reserve reduces reserves, upward pressure on money market rates may increase, posing greater challenges for financial institutions' asset-liability management and overall market stability [3]. - The focus will be on how the Federal Reserve balances market stability with the normalization of its balance sheet in the coming period [4].

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has achieved positive growth in both revenue and profit in Q1, contrasting with the declining performance of other major banks, driven primarily by strong growth in non-interest income despite a challenging bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1, ABC's non-interest income growth reached 45.3%, significantly higher than the full-year growth rate of 26.3% in 2024, showcasing its resilience in a tough market [1][2]. - The bank's investment net income increased by 71 million, a year-on-year increase of 35 million, while fair value changes contributed an additional 39 million, indicating effective timing in investment strategies [3][4]. - ABC's total assets grew at a rate of 6.3%, the lowest among the six major state-owned banks, reflecting a strategic decision to control asset growth and structure [5][6]. Group 2: Asset Management Strategy - The bank has actively reduced interbank assets and adjusted financial investment growth from 23.5% at the end of 2024 to 12.7% in Q1 2025, while maintaining a loan growth rate of around 10% [5][6]. - ABC's significant increase in precious metal investments aligns with market trends, demonstrating a proactive approach to asset allocation [6]. Group 3: Areas for Improvement - Despite strong performance in asset management, ABC's deposit growth of 3.1% and net fee income decline of 3.5% indicate areas needing enhancement [7]. - Long-term sustainability of excess returns relies on improving deposit levels and intermediary income, as well as maintaining high asset quality, which is currently leading among large banks [7].