昨天9月17日晚上，很多小伙伴都在等联储的决议结果。决议凌晨2点出来，降息25个基点。联邦基金利 率目标区间现在为4.00%~4.25%，符合市场预期。 也不出所料，懂王亲自提名的、获得国会山批准、已经宣誓就职的新理事Miran当然持有不同意见，倾 向于降息50个基点。其实还有一个更有趣的八卦点：不知道懂王会不会注意到——热门下任主席人选之 一Waller老师，这次并没有支持"降50个基点"的少数意见。 市场的即时反应是，10年期国债从4.04%跳至4.01%下方，金价剧烈波动了十几块美金，标普500转涨， 道指涨，美元指数跌。看起来是交易员加大对联储今年至少再降息一次的押注。紧接着，中东各大央行 基本上是踩着联储的脚，纷纷下调25个起点。 以前跟大家讨论过：一个事件和数据刚出现在新闻头条时，市场的即时反应是对之前预期的行动结果。 那之后该如何反应呢？一个很重要的因素是：数据出来之后，别人是怎么评论、解读的？ "头条"本身不会对真实世界有立竿见影的冲击，而接下来的"分析解读"和"定调"，才告诉大家该用什么 样的情绪来对待。你才能判断自己该用什么情绪，该有什么"共识"，以及接下来该怎么利用这个"共 识"。凯恩斯 ...

周二（8月12日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元上涨，目前交投于0.65附近，截止北京时间11:43分，澳元/美元 报价0.6524，上涨0.18%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6512。T.RowePrice动态全球债券策略联席基金 经理ScottSolomon指出，尽管澳洲联储今日几乎确定将降息，但经济学家更关注其如何构建前瞻指引。 日线图的技术分析显示市场情绪看涨，澳元兑美元14日相对强弱指数（RSI）位于50上方。此外，该货 币对仍处于9日指数移动平均线（EMA）上方，表明短期动能正在增强。上行方面，澳元兑美元可能会 试探0.6600这一心理关口附近区域，随后是7月24日创下的九个月高点0.6625。 他回顾称，澳洲联储在7月意外按兵不动的决定曾引发市场震动——尤其值得注意的是，该行5月曾公开 讨论过50个基点的激进降息选项，随后的暂停操作更显突兀。Solomon强调："若澳洲联储试图传递'每 次会议皆有可能行动'的信号，市场自会调整预期。但关键在于保持政策连贯性，避免制造混乱。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) must adopt a more flexible approach when utilizing forward guidance [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council member, Mahrouf, emphasized the need for flexibility in forward guidance to adapt to changing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that in the current environment, forward guidance will not be effective [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions are such that traditional forward guidance mechanisms may not yield the expected results [1] - Bostic emphasized the need for adaptability in monetary policy given the uncertainties in the economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the current economic situation's high level of uncertainty and emphasized the importance of relying on actual data rather than making overly confident predictions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - Powell expressed that the economic landscape is characterized by significant uncertainty, indicating a cautious approach to forecasting [1] - He stated a preference for using real data as a basis for decisions rather than speculative predictions [1] - Forward Guidance - The Chairman noted that he does not wish to provide excessive forward guidance, suggesting a more data-driven approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is advocating for a 100 basis point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, citing favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and potential savings on upcoming debt interest payments [2][3]. Group 1: Shadow Fed Chair Strategy - Trump is considering the "shadow Fed chair" strategy proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which involves signaling potential successors to the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends [3][4]. - Deutsche Bank's report identifies three main candidates for the shadow chair: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Chris Waller [5][6]. - The establishment of a shadow chair is seen as a way to provide forward guidance on monetary policy, potentially reducing uncertainty in long-term bond yields and improving the financing environment for U.S. debt [4][16]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The shadow chair could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which Trump has been advocating to support his economic agenda, including the "Big, Beautiful Bill" [4][14]. - Analysts suggest that the shadow chair's role, while not having formal power, could shape economic behavior and market perceptions ahead of any official policy changes [4][10]. - The strategy may also serve to undermine Powell's authority and signal a shift in monetary policy direction, as Trump seeks to exert more influence over the Fed [13][14]. Group 3: Candidate Preferences - Among the candidates, Waller is viewed as more favorable due to his dovish stance on monetary policy, while Warsh has historically held hawkish views [7][8]. - The selection of a candidate who can effectively advocate for lower interest rates will be crucial, as the new chair will need to persuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for policy changes [8][9]. - Bessent's potential candidacy has been denied by the White House, indicating a focus on the other three candidates [9].

普信集团：美联储近期不太可能降息 金十数据6月10日讯，普信集团策略师蒂姆•默里表示，在关税相关的不确定性消退或劳动力市场出现明 显恶化之前，美联储将继续按兵不动。默里预计短期内不会出现"美联储认沽期权"，即美联储降息救 市。美联储的政策制定者知道，降低利率并不是解决不确定性的良方。考虑到关税将推高通胀的风险， 美联储也不愿降息。默里预计美联储将坚持其依赖数据的做法，避免提供前瞻指引，并避免发出任 何"政治信息"。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third pause in rate hikes this year, reflecting a cautious assessment of the current economic situation [1] - The Fed's "silence" is an active response to multiple challenges, including the potential impact of tariff policies, inflation structure divergence, and regional economic imbalances [1] Inflation Dynamics - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has dropped to 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021, primarily driven by falling food prices; however, the core CPI remains stubbornly at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The persistent high service prices, such as housing and healthcare, versus the cyclical decline in goods prices illustrate a complex inflation landscape [3] Regional Economic Disparities - A Fed internal survey reveals a "dual mirror" of the U.S. economy, with tourism-heavy areas like Las Vegas facing significant declines in hotel occupancy and gaming revenue, while resource-rich regions like Utah and Alaska benefit from high commodity prices [4] - This regional economic imbalance poses significant challenges for Fed policy-making, as traditional reliance on national data may fail to capture local economic conditions [4] Policy Signals and Divergence - There is a notable divide within the Fed regarding economic outlook; some officials emphasize a strong labor market and robust consumer spending, while others warn of declining business confidence and potential "second inflation" due to tariff policies [4] - This contradictory stance reflects the Fed's struggle to balance "data dependence" with "forward guidance" amid evolving economic conditions [4] Market Expectations - Despite the Fed's emphasis on data-driven policy, the market anticipates a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting historical memories of the Fed's delayed responses [6] - The Fed must be cautious of repeating past mistakes by prematurely easing policies, which could reignite inflation expectations or excessively delaying could tighten financial conditions and trigger a recession [6] The Fed's Dilemma - The Fed faces a "trilemma" involving three constraints: maintaining a tight policy stance due to core inflation, allowing flexibility in response to regional economic disparities and tariff impacts, and ensuring financial stability amid high interest rates [7] - The Fed is likely to continue a "data-driven" strategy, balancing between quantitative tightening and interest rate adjustments to manage inflation and risk [7] Conclusion - The Fed's current inaction is not an endpoint but the beginning of a new policy negotiation phase, emphasizing the need for a dynamic market perspective amid uncertainties in inflation, growth, and policy [8]

将就业水平目标定在与2%通胀目标一致的水平 本文作者是前纽约联储前主席比尔·杜德利（Bill Dudley） 鲍威尔绝不能让特朗普干扰这项关键改革——尽管特朗普反复威胁要撤换他，但若因此采取"敷衍了 事"的调整将铸成大错。 现行货币政策框架存在严重缺陷，修正它们既能彰显领导力，更能捍卫美联储的独立性。 由杜德利主笔的三十人集团最新报告提出六项核心改革建议： 回归对称的2%通胀目标 2020年框架评估时，美联储在长期低通胀后采用了"灵活平均通胀目标制"，即低于2%的缺口需用超额 通胀弥补，但反之不然。这一调整不仅增加了政策沟通难度，还因"中性"短期利率上升而显得不合时宜 ——随后五年通胀持续高于2%的目标。回归对称目标既能减少市场困惑，也能为零利率下限风险重现 做好准备。 美联储在2020年评审中设定的就业目标也是单方面的：它旨在最小化与最大可持续就业水平的不足—— 即不会对工资造成过大上行压力的水平。这决定了美联储将短期利率维持在接近零的水平的承诺，直到 就业达到可持续最大水平，且通胀既达到2%并预计在一段时间内保持在2%以上。结果是，即使当时经 济快速增长、劳动力市场过热、通胀已攀升至5%以上，美联储直到2 ...

Group 1 - Central bank policies are a primary driver of foreign exchange markets, influencing currency supply and demand, market expectations, and economic fundamentals, which in turn affect exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Interest rate adjustments directly impact borrowing costs, influencing capital flows and currency values; for instance, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a nearly 20% surge in the US dollar index, reaching a 20-year high [4][24] - Quantitative easing (QE) increases money supply and can lead to currency depreciation, as seen when the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE during the pandemic caused a 12% drop in the dollar index [7][6] Group 2 - Central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling currencies to influence exchange rates; for example, Japan's Ministry of Finance warned about potential intervention to stabilize the yen [11][9] - Forward guidance from central banks can shape market expectations regarding future policy directions, with hawkish signals typically strengthening the currency and dovish signals weakening it [12][13] Group 3 - The transmission of central bank policies to the foreign exchange market occurs through various channels, including interest rate parity, capital flows, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment [16][22] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on employment and inflation, making the US dollar a global safe-haven currency, while the European Central Bank's policies are primarily aimed at inflation control, impacting the euro's value [24][25] Group 4 - Recent policy shifts, such as the Federal Reserve's transition to aggressive rate hikes from late 2021, have led to significant market reactions, including a rise in the dollar index and a peak exchange rate against the yen [24][1] - The Bank of Japan's unexpected adjustment of its yield curve control policy in December 2022 resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the dollar, breaking a long-term depreciation trend [26][2] Group 5 - Future challenges for central banks include the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical factors that may influence monetary policy and currency dynamics, such as the trend of "de-dollarization" among various nations [32][34] - The interconnectedness of markets necessitates that traders consider policy analysis alongside technical factors and liquidity management to navigate extreme market conditions effectively [38][37]