德银解读，这些表态暗示沃什一旦上台，可能缩减QE研究成果、改革模型团队，甚至推动国会重新界 定联储双重使命。 市场最关注的利率立场，沃什近期言论呈现"结构性非鸽派"。一方面，他公开呼吁"当前应降低政策利 率"，以对冲财政收缩与地产下行压力；另一方面，他坚持"降息必须伴随资产负债表收缩"，即通过放 松监管、降低银行准备金要求，让缩表不再冲击货币市场。 德意志银行北美首席经济学家Matthew Luzzetti团队在12月15日发布的研报，第一时间为市场补上了"沃 什使用说明书"。 报告核心结论掷地有声：若沃什执掌联储，他将走出一条"降息与缩表并行"的非典型路径，但前提是监 管改革先行，否则政策组合"看起来很美，做起来很难"。 律师出身、无经济学博士头衔的沃什，履历横跨政、商、学三界：2006—2011年任职联储理事，亲历金 融危机救火；离职后执掌斯坦·德鲁肯米勒家族办公室Duquesne，兼任斯坦福商学院讲师与胡佛研究所 学者。 德银认为，这种"既做过监管官，也管过百亿钱"的复合背景，使沃什对金融市场脉搏与货币政策副作用 都有切肤之痛。 沃什的货币哲学可概括为"三反"：反QE、反前瞻指引、反使命蔓延。他对美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but there are differing opinions within the committee regarding the extent of the cut [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, which was anticipated by the market [1]. - New board member Miran expressed a preference for a 50 basis point cut, indicating a divergence in opinions within the Fed [1]. - The immediate market reaction included a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield and fluctuations in gold prices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Interpretations - Following the Fed's announcement, there was a notable shift in market sentiment, with traders increasing bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]. - Analysts highlighted that the initial market response to the Fed's decision was based on prior expectations, but subsequent interpretations and analyses shaped the market's direction [2][5]. - The commentary from major financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and CNBC, indicated a more hawkish outlook, suggesting that the Fed may only cut rates once by 2026, which contrasts with market expectations [5]. Group 3: Powell's Statements and Market Sentiment - Powell's emphasis on evaluating conditions "meeting by meeting" suggests a reluctance to signal a continuous rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to uncertainty in market expectations [4]. - The focus on employment risks in Powell's remarks indicates a shift towards prioritizing job market stability over inflation concerns [4]. - The market's reaction to Powell's statements included a rebound in two-year Treasury yields and a recovery in the 10-year yield, underscoring the importance of long-term rates in influencing the economy [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.65, with a slight increase of 0.18% from the previous day [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is almost certain to lower interest rates, but economists are more focused on how the RBA will construct its forward guidance [1] - The RBA's unexpected decision to hold rates steady in July caused market turbulence, especially since a 50 basis point cut was previously discussed in May [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment appears bullish, with the AUD/USD relative strength index (RSI) above 50, indicating positive momentum [1] - The AUD/USD is trading above the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting strengthening short-term momentum [1] Group 3: Price Levels - The AUD/USD may test the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the nine-month high of 0.6625 reached on July 24 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) must adopt a more flexible approach when utilizing forward guidance [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council member, Mahrouf, emphasized the need for flexibility in forward guidance to adapt to changing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that in the current environment, forward guidance will not be effective [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions are such that traditional forward guidance mechanisms may not yield the expected results [1] - Bostic emphasized the need for adaptability in monetary policy given the uncertainties in the economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the current economic situation's high level of uncertainty and emphasized the importance of relying on actual data rather than making overly confident predictions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - Powell expressed that the economic landscape is characterized by significant uncertainty, indicating a cautious approach to forecasting [1] - He stated a preference for using real data as a basis for decisions rather than speculative predictions [1] - Forward Guidance - The Chairman noted that he does not wish to provide excessive forward guidance, suggesting a more data-driven approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is advocating for a 100 basis point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, citing favorable Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and potential savings on upcoming debt interest payments [2][3]. Group 1: Shadow Fed Chair Strategy - Trump is considering the "shadow Fed chair" strategy proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which involves signaling potential successors to the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends [3][4]. - Deutsche Bank's report identifies three main candidates for the shadow chair: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Chris Waller [5][6]. - The establishment of a shadow chair is seen as a way to provide forward guidance on monetary policy, potentially reducing uncertainty in long-term bond yields and improving the financing environment for U.S. debt [4][16]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The shadow chair could influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, which Trump has been advocating to support his economic agenda, including the "Big, Beautiful Bill" [4][14]. - Analysts suggest that the shadow chair's role, while not having formal power, could shape economic behavior and market perceptions ahead of any official policy changes [4][10]. - The strategy may also serve to undermine Powell's authority and signal a shift in monetary policy direction, as Trump seeks to exert more influence over the Fed [13][14]. Group 3: Candidate Preferences - Among the candidates, Waller is viewed as more favorable due to his dovish stance on monetary policy, while Warsh has historically held hawkish views [7][8]. - The selection of a candidate who can effectively advocate for lower interest rates will be crucial, as the new chair will need to persuade the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for policy changes [8][9]. - Bessent's potential candidacy has been denied by the White House, indicating a focus on the other three candidates [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the near term due to uncertainties related to tariffs and the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Stance** - The Federal Reserve will remain inactive until there is a significant improvement in the labor market or a reduction in tariff-related uncertainties [1] - The Fed's policymakers recognize that lowering interest rates is not an effective solution to uncertainty [1] - **Inflation Concerns** - Tariffs are expected to increase inflation risks, which further discourages the Fed from cutting rates [1] - **Data-Driven Approach** - The Fed is expected to continue its data-dependent approach, avoiding forward guidance and refraining from sending any political signals [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third pause in rate hikes this year, reflecting a cautious assessment of the current economic situation [1] - The Fed's "silence" is an active response to multiple challenges, including the potential impact of tariff policies, inflation structure divergence, and regional economic imbalances [1] Inflation Dynamics - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has dropped to 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021, primarily driven by falling food prices; however, the core CPI remains stubbornly at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] - The persistent high service prices, such as housing and healthcare, versus the cyclical decline in goods prices illustrate a complex inflation landscape [3] Regional Economic Disparities - A Fed internal survey reveals a "dual mirror" of the U.S. economy, with tourism-heavy areas like Las Vegas facing significant declines in hotel occupancy and gaming revenue, while resource-rich regions like Utah and Alaska benefit from high commodity prices [4] - This regional economic imbalance poses significant challenges for Fed policy-making, as traditional reliance on national data may fail to capture local economic conditions [4] Policy Signals and Divergence - There is a notable divide within the Fed regarding economic outlook; some officials emphasize a strong labor market and robust consumer spending, while others warn of declining business confidence and potential "second inflation" due to tariff policies [4] - This contradictory stance reflects the Fed's struggle to balance "data dependence" with "forward guidance" amid evolving economic conditions [4] Market Expectations - Despite the Fed's emphasis on data-driven policy, the market anticipates a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting historical memories of the Fed's delayed responses [6] - The Fed must be cautious of repeating past mistakes by prematurely easing policies, which could reignite inflation expectations or excessively delaying could tighten financial conditions and trigger a recession [6] The Fed's Dilemma - The Fed faces a "trilemma" involving three constraints: maintaining a tight policy stance due to core inflation, allowing flexibility in response to regional economic disparities and tariff impacts, and ensuring financial stability amid high interest rates [7] - The Fed is likely to continue a "data-driven" strategy, balancing between quantitative tightening and interest rate adjustments to manage inflation and risk [7] Conclusion - The Fed's current inaction is not an endpoint but the beginning of a new policy negotiation phase, emphasizing the need for a dynamic market perspective amid uncertainties in inflation, growth, and policy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a significant reassessment of its management approach, termed "Monetary Policy Framework Review," which aims to better address economic shocks and policy uncertainties created by the U.S. government [1] Group 1: Key Recommendations - Return to a symmetric 2% inflation target to reduce market confusion and prepare for potential zero lower bound risks [1] - Align employment level targets with the 2% inflation goal to avoid prolonged low-interest rates despite rising inflation and a strong economy [1] - Establish a clear framework for quantitative easing and tightening to differentiate between market stabilization and economic stimulus [3] Group 2: Economic Forecasting and Guidance - Publish multiple economic scenarios to help the market understand potential Federal Reserve responses under different conditions, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy [4] - Develop forward guidance norms that clarify conditions under which low interest rates apply, reducing market misinterpretations [5] Group 3: Additional Reforms - Shift the policy anchor from the federal funds rate to the reserve rate to avoid conflicts with quantitative easing [5] - Exclude reserves from bank leverage calculations to prevent conflicts with quantitative easing [5] - Establish a mechanism to assess the impact of monetary policy on financial stability [5]