Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) must adopt a more flexible approach when utilizing forward guidance [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council member, Mahrouf, emphasized the need for flexibility in forward guidance to adapt to changing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that in the current environment, forward guidance will not be effective [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions are such that traditional forward guidance mechanisms may not yield the expected results [1] - Bostic emphasized the need for adaptability in monetary policy given the uncertainties in the economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the current economic situation's high level of uncertainty and emphasized the importance of relying on actual data rather than making overly confident predictions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Outlook - Powell expressed that the economic landscape is characterized by significant uncertainty, indicating a cautious approach to forecasting [1] - He stated a preference for using real data as a basis for decisions rather than speculative predictions [1] - Forward Guidance - The Chairman noted that he does not wish to provide excessive forward guidance, suggesting a more data-driven approach to monetary policy [1]

特朗普 图片来源：新华社记者 胡友松 摄 当地时间6月11日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）最新数据表现理想，他呼吁美联储将利率下调1个百 分点（即100个基点）。特朗普说，如此一来，美国在即将到期的债务利息上将节省大量支出。他强调说，"这非常重要"。 6日他在社媒发文说，美联储的"太迟先生"是个灾难。欧洲已经降息10次了，而美国一次也没有。他称，美联储主席鲍威尔应将利率下调整整一个百分点。 而就在当地时间6月10日，德意志银行发布的一份研究报告指出，美国总统特朗普正考虑在美联储现任主席任期尚未结束前，提前透露继任者。这就是财政 部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）此前提出的"影子美联储主席"（shadow Fed chair）策略。 据德银分析，"影子主席"有三名热门的潜在人选，分别是美联储前理事凯文·沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特以及美联储现任理事克里斯·沃勒。 除此之外，这一策略的提出者贝森特也被传将成为接替鲍威尔的竞争者之一，不过白宫方面很快进行了否认。 值得注意的是，任命"影子主席"这一举措正值特朗普力推 "Big, Beauti ...

将就业水平目标定在与2%通胀目标一致的水平 本文作者是前纽约联储前主席比尔·杜德利（Bill Dudley） 鲍威尔绝不能让特朗普干扰这项关键改革——尽管特朗普反复威胁要撤换他，但若因此采取"敷衍了 事"的调整将铸成大错。 现行货币政策框架存在严重缺陷，修正它们既能彰显领导力，更能捍卫美联储的独立性。 由杜德利主笔的三十人集团最新报告提出六项核心改革建议： 回归对称的2%通胀目标 2020年框架评估时，美联储在长期低通胀后采用了"灵活平均通胀目标制"，即低于2%的缺口需用超额 通胀弥补，但反之不然。这一调整不仅增加了政策沟通难度，还因"中性"短期利率上升而显得不合时宜 ——随后五年通胀持续高于2%的目标。回归对称目标既能减少市场困惑，也能为零利率下限风险重现 做好准备。 美联储在2020年评审中设定的就业目标也是单方面的：它旨在最小化与最大可持续就业水平的不足—— 即不会对工资造成过大上行压力的水平。这决定了美联储将短期利率维持在接近零的水平的承诺，直到 就业达到可持续最大水平，且通胀既达到2%并预计在一段时间内保持在2%以上。结果是，即使当时经 济快速增长、劳动力市场过热、通胀已攀升至5%以上，美联储直到2 ...

Group 1 - Central bank policies are a primary driver of foreign exchange markets, influencing currency supply and demand, market expectations, and economic fundamentals, which in turn affect exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Interest rate adjustments directly impact borrowing costs, influencing capital flows and currency values; for instance, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a nearly 20% surge in the US dollar index, reaching a 20-year high [4][24] - Quantitative easing (QE) increases money supply and can lead to currency depreciation, as seen when the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE during the pandemic caused a 12% drop in the dollar index [7][6] Group 2 - Central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling currencies to influence exchange rates; for example, Japan's Ministry of Finance warned about potential intervention to stabilize the yen [11][9] - Forward guidance from central banks can shape market expectations regarding future policy directions, with hawkish signals typically strengthening the currency and dovish signals weakening it [12][13] Group 3 - The transmission of central bank policies to the foreign exchange market occurs through various channels, including interest rate parity, capital flows, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment [16][22] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on employment and inflation, making the US dollar a global safe-haven currency, while the European Central Bank's policies are primarily aimed at inflation control, impacting the euro's value [24][25] Group 4 - Recent policy shifts, such as the Federal Reserve's transition to aggressive rate hikes from late 2021, have led to significant market reactions, including a rise in the dollar index and a peak exchange rate against the yen [24][1] - The Bank of Japan's unexpected adjustment of its yield curve control policy in December 2022 resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the dollar, breaking a long-term depreciation trend [26][2] Group 5 - Future challenges for central banks include the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical factors that may influence monetary policy and currency dynamics, such as the trend of "de-dollarization" among various nations [32][34] - The interconnectedness of markets necessitates that traders consider policy analysis alongside technical factors and liquidity management to navigate extreme market conditions effectively [38][37]