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躺平也能赚钱?讲一讲全天候策略
雪球· 2025-07-26 04:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of the "All Weather Strategy" in investment, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and commodities to achieve stable returns regardless of market conditions [48]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1971, President Nixon announced the prohibition of foreign central banks from exchanging dollars for gold, which shocked the global market [3]. - Contrary to expectations, the U.S. stock market surged the following day, defying predictions of a downturn from prominent investors like Ray Dalio [5][7]. Group 2: Investment Concepts - Investment is not limited to stocks; it includes cash deposits, gold, and real estate, categorized into three main asset classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities [13]. - The price movements of these asset classes are influenced by different core factors, leading to low or negative correlations among them [17]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Asset Prices - Stock prices are primarily influenced by three factors: market sentiment, economic indicators, and company performance [18]. - Bond prices are affected by interest rates and credit risk, where higher deposit rates lead to lower bond prices, and poor credit ratings necessitate lower bond prices to attract buyers [20][22]. - Commodity prices are driven by inflation and supply-demand dynamics, where excess supply leads to price drops and limited supply causes price increases [24][25]. Group 4: All Weather Strategy - The All Weather Strategy aims to create a diversified portfolio that can generate returns in any market condition by investing in all three asset classes [30]. - The strategy incorporates "risk parity," which adjusts the asset allocation based on the risk levels of each asset class to maintain a stable overall portfolio volatility [33][39]. - Portfolio adjustments are necessary as market conditions change, requiring active management to optimize asset allocation [43]. Group 5: Limitations and Market Behavior - The All Weather Strategy is not infallible; extreme market events can disrupt the typical low or negative correlations among asset classes, leading to simultaneous declines [46]. - Despite its limitations, the strategy is designed to recover from such disruptions, as market conditions normalize over time [47]. Group 6: Conclusion - The All Weather Strategy's strength lies in its non-predictive approach and risk-adjusted asset allocation, aiming for profitability in various market scenarios [48]. - The article contrasts this strategy with speculative investment behaviors, advocating for diversified, multi-asset approaches over concentrated bets on single stocks or sectors [48].
丰富科技金融工具箱(徐观财事)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 23:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the issuance of technology innovation bonds has surged, with 89 bonds launched and raising 188.5 billion yuan since the new policy was introduced on May 7, indicating strong participation from banks, brokerages, technology companies, and investment institutions [2] - Technology innovation bonds are specifically designed for financing technology innovation enterprises, with funds required to be used for related purposes, making them more tailored to the needs of tech companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The new policy has expanded the range of issuers to include banks, brokerages, and financial investment companies, allowing equity investment institutions to raise funds through bond issuance for investing in early-stage technology projects [2] Group 2 - The enthusiasm for technology innovation bonds is driven by supportive policies that lower barriers and costs, encouraging financial institutions to participate [3] - These bonds facilitate the integrated development of debt, loans, and equity investments, enabling banks to raise low-cost funds through bonds and invest them in technology loans, while investment institutions can establish industry funds for early-stage tech companies [3] - The main challenge is not the availability of funds but the ability to deliver them accurately to the enterprises in need, which technology innovation bonds effectively address by aligning policy direction, market confidence, and enterprise demand [3]