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躺平也能赚钱?讲一讲全天候策略
雪球· 2025-07-26 04:05
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of the "All Weather Strategy" in investment, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and commodities to achieve stable returns regardless of market conditions [48]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1971, President Nixon announced the prohibition of foreign central banks from exchanging dollars for gold, which shocked the global market [3]. - Contrary to expectations, the U.S. stock market surged the following day, defying predictions of a downturn from prominent investors like Ray Dalio [5][7]. Group 2: Investment Concepts - Investment is not limited to stocks; it includes cash deposits, gold, and real estate, categorized into three main asset classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities [13]. - The price movements of these asset classes are influenced by different core factors, leading to low or negative correlations among them [17]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Asset Prices - Stock prices are primarily influenced by three factors: market sentiment, economic indicators, and company performance [18]. - Bond prices are affected by interest rates and credit risk, where higher deposit rates lead to lower bond prices, and poor credit ratings necessitate lower bond prices to attract buyers [20][22]. - Commodity prices are driven by inflation and supply-demand dynamics, where excess supply leads to price drops and limited supply causes price increases [24][25]. Group 4: All Weather Strategy - The All Weather Strategy aims to create a diversified portfolio that can generate returns in any market condition by investing in all three asset classes [30]. - The strategy incorporates "risk parity," which adjusts the asset allocation based on the risk levels of each asset class to maintain a stable overall portfolio volatility [33][39]. - Portfolio adjustments are necessary as market conditions change, requiring active management to optimize asset allocation [43]. Group 5: Limitations and Market Behavior - The All Weather Strategy is not infallible; extreme market events can disrupt the typical low or negative correlations among asset classes, leading to simultaneous declines [46]. - Despite its limitations, the strategy is designed to recover from such disruptions, as market conditions normalize over time [47]. Group 6: Conclusion - The All Weather Strategy's strength lies in its non-predictive approach and risk-adjusted asset allocation, aiming for profitability in various market scenarios [48]. - The article contrasts this strategy with speculative investment behaviors, advocating for diversified, multi-asset approaches over concentrated bets on single stocks or sectors [48].
丰富科技金融工具箱(徐观财事)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 23:10
□徐兵 最近,科技创新债券突然火了。从5月7日新政策出台到现在,全国已经有89只科技创新债券启动发行, 募集资金达到1885亿元。这说明,不管是银行、券商,还是科技企业、投资机构,都在争先恐后地参与 进来。一场围绕"硬科技"的融资变革,正悄然展开。 科技创新债券到底是什么?简单说,就是一类专门为科技创新企业融资服务的债券,钱必须用在科技创 新相关的事情上。这类债券和普通债券不一样,它更明确、用途更专一,也更贴合科创企业的实际需 求。特别是对很多还在发展初期的中小科技企业来说,这种方式就像一场"及时雨",能帮它们跨过融资 难的门槛。 这次新政的最大亮点,是扩大了发债主体范围。以前主要是企业,现在连银行、券商、金融投资公司也 可以发行。尤其是一些股权投资机构,通过发债来募集设立基金的钱,也能更方便地投向初创科技项 目。这不仅拓宽了融资渠道,还能帮助更多"投早、投小、投硬科技"的资金真正落地。 政策还不止放开发行主体这么简单。这次有关部门还拿出了真金白银的支持措施,比如减免手续费、降 低交易成本、优化发债流程,甚至推出了配套的交易平台,让这些债券更容易发行、更好流通。 为什么大家对科技创新债券这么积极?一方面,是因 ...