Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the restoration of VAT on interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, marks a significant policy shift aimed at increasing fiscal revenue and addressing financial pressures [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Policy Change - The restoration of VAT on bond interest income is driven by two main factors: the substantial scale of bond investments in the context of an "asset shortage," and the need for fiscal authorities to adjust funding structures to prevent excessive liquidity from being trapped in interest-bearing bonds [3]. - The policy aims to enhance fiscal revenue, with an estimated short-term revenue increase of approximately 33.7 billion yuan from the new VAT on bond interest income, and a potential mid-term revenue of around 100 billion yuan as the scale of new debt continues to grow [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The imposition of VAT on new bond issuances is expected to lead to an increase in issuance rates, creating a yield spread of 6-10 basis points between new and existing bonds [5][6]. - The overall impact on the bond market is considered limited, as existing bond yields remain unchanged while new bond yields may rise, leading to a potential widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds [5][6]. - The attractiveness of existing bonds may increase due to their tax advantages, prompting some investors to prefer holding current bonds over new issuances [6]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The restoration of VAT on bond interest income may affect bank profits, but it could also enhance the relative attractiveness of dividend stocks compared to bonds [7]. - The policy change may lead to a dual pricing mechanism for new and existing bonds, with potential impacts on credit spreads and overall market dynamics [6]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Future monitoring of central bank policies and potential changes in public fund tax incentives will be crucial, as the attractiveness of new bonds may decline, affecting institutional participation in new bond issuances [9]. - The ongoing debate regarding tax incentives for public funds and their potential impact on the bond market remains a key area of focus, with implications for market supply and demand dynamics [10].

【导读】国债等利息收入增值税恢复征收，券商首席最新解读 中国基金报记者 晨曦 事关债券利息征税，新政策来了！ 8 月 1 日，财政部、税务总局联合发布 《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》 。 公告显示，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债 券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。此次政策调整采用 " 新老划断 " 原则，对 8 月 8 日前已发行的相关债券利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 本周五公告发出后， 10 年国债收益率短期上行后明显下行，收盘时 10 年国债和 30 年国债 均下行了 1 个 BP 。这意味着部分投资者考虑到后续新发债券面临的税收压力，更愿意持有 当前国债，市场买盘力量不弱。 恢复征税，将对债券市场及投资者将产生哪些影响？后续还有哪些要点值得关注？基金君整 理了多名券商首席观点解读如下 —— 税收优惠政策的使命已完成 可缓和财政收支压力 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园 认为，此次恢复征收国债、地方政府债券、金融债券利息收入增 值税，主要有两点原因：一是当前债券投资已颇具规模， " 资产荒 " 背景下，国债、地方债 等安全资产已经具 ...