Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the bond market in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that while the period of intense pressure has passed, the aftereffects are still being felt [2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations due to ongoing economic adjustments and policy changes [2] - Interest rates are projected to stabilize, but the impact of previous rate hikes will continue to influence market dynamics [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators suggest a gradual recovery, with inflation rates showing signs of moderation [2] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable, contributing to a more favorable environment for bond investments [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There are potential investment opportunities in high-quality bonds as market conditions improve [2] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from the economic recovery, such as infrastructure and technology [2]

我们来看一下财政的展望部分，我们还是判断明年会再次增发政府债券。为什么还会判断增发政府债 券？是因为我们基于前面对于经济整体判断，我们认为接下来9月份到四季度还是会面临一定的压力。 今年又应该说是稳增长比较重要的一年，所以说增发政府债券又是过去三年每年的下半年都发生的事 情，所以我们判断今年有可能再次提前发行像明年的特殊再融资债，或者是增加赤字，融一笔钱来解决 经济发展中遇到的困难。 货币政策这边我们预测还是会有总量的宽松，但是会遇到掣肘，我们央行的掣肘就是我们之前提过很多 次的金融稳定。金融稳定在今年以来在市场上很受到关注，其中核心关注的指标就是商业银行的加权净 息差。截止到二季度末，商业银行净息差已经降到了1.42%，持续低于满分的1.8%。应该说现在能达到 1.8%的银行已经很有限了。1.42%对应到银行的利润就是还能有一定的利润，但是利差如果进一步下行 到1.2%到1.3%，基本上银行所有的利润都要来补充资本，就没有办法产生真正意义上的利润了，就会 导致金融稳定出现问题。因为并不是所有的银行都是一样的净息差，一些银行如果显著低于这样的净息 差水平，它实际上就进入了利润下降的状态，对于央行非常关注的金融 ...