摘要 随着我国经济发展阶段的演进以及实体经济融资模式的结构性转变，债券市场正逐渐成为我国金融体系稳定运行的核心领域。理论 与实践均表明，流动性是金融稳定的关键要素，而债券市场的稳定性高度依赖于各类投资者资金来源的稳定性。鉴于我国债券市场 的独特交易特征，本文创新性地提出了三横三纵的债券交易多级网络结构。这一结构不仅能够体现金融市场与金融机构的顺周期行 为共振，还可以清晰刻画冲击传导路径。通过突出跨市场与跨机构之间流动性的相互影响，该多级网络结构为债券市场的脆弱性评 估与风险传染机制研究提供了一个全新的分析框架。 关键词：债券市场 金融稳定 流动性 交易网络 01 债券市场对于金融稳定具有重要意义 债券市场上通宏观政策、中贯金融体系、下连微观主体，是现代金融体系的重要支柱。从债券市场规模来看，我国已位居全球第 二，是名副其实的债券大国。 从一级市场对宏观经济的支持来看，债券市场已逐渐成为实体经济重要的融资渠道。根据我国社会融资规模数据，政府债券与企业 债券1余额占社会融资规模存量的比重稳步提升，截至2025年3月末，这一占比已近三成。尤其是政府债券在社会融资规模中的作用 愈发重要（盛松成等，2024）。债券市场 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has adopted a more positive tone regarding the domestic economic situation, indicating that positive factors for prices are increasing, while external environmental fluctuations remain [1][3] - The macroeconomic policy is described as "more proactive and effective," leading to stable economic operation with good performance in major economic indicators, supported by regulatory measures against low-price disorderly competition [1][3] - The external environment continues to show volatility, with weakened global economic growth momentum and increased trade barriers, necessitating a focus on domestic strategic tasks for modernization [1][3] Group 2 - The policy framework emphasizes continuity and predictability, focusing on "stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations," which enhances support for the capital market [2][4] - The monetary policy remains accommodative, providing protection for the real economy and capital markets, with a focus on guiding social expectations amid uncertainties [2][5] - The emphasis is on implementing existing policies in detail, optimizing the credit structure, and maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals rather than merely increasing credit scale [2][5] Group 3 - Interest rate policies stress execution and regulation, reflecting reforms in the interest rate system and transmission mechanisms, aimed at reducing social financing costs [3][7] - The report indicates a more relaxed stance on exchange rates, suggesting stability at a reasonable equilibrium level, with monetary policy execution being "self-directed" [3][7] Group 4 - The report outlines eight major tasks for the next phase of monetary policy, including enhancing macro credit policy guidance, developing green financial products, and supporting small and micro enterprises [8] - The focus is on promoting financial support for consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and ensuring the effective implementation of various financial policies [8]

Fiscal Policy - The government's net financing from bonds has reached 9.5 trillion, surpassing any year except 2023 and 2024, with an additional 4-5 trillion expected to be issued this year [1] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, while special bonds will maintain a steady issuance pace similar to previous years [1] - There is a likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year to support economic resilience, potentially through special treasury bonds or increased deficits [1] Monetary Policy - A prediction of stock liquidity easing in the second half of the year, but the overall impact may not be as significant as previously anticipated due to financial stability constraints [1] - The central bank is expected to restart bond purchases in the third quarter, primarily due to a lack of long-term liquidity tools [2] - The bank's net interest margin is a significant factor limiting the extent of interest rate reductions, with a focus on the sustainability of banks' profitability [2] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently in a state of oscillation, with strategies suggested for gradually increasing long-term bond holdings at high yield points and reducing them at low yield points [3] - The yield curve is at a relatively high level compared to the year, indicating a neutral to low historical position, with financial stability being a key constraint on monetary policy [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the appointment of Zhu Haibin as the Assistant President (Economic Research) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), effective from October 1, 2025, highlighting his extensive experience in macroeconomic and financial stability research [2][4]. - Zhu Haibin holds degrees from Peking University, the People's Bank of China, and Duke University, and has served as the Chief Economist for China at JPMorgan Chase, indicating a strong academic and professional background [2][4]. - The HKMA was established on April 1, 1993, and its main functions include maintaining monetary stability, promoting a stable banking system, and supporting Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [3][4]. Group 2 - Zhu Haibin's recent comments emphasize the growing international interest in China's market potential and the importance of structural rebalancing policies for stabilizing the economy [2]. - The previous Assistant President (Economic Research), Zhang Liling, resigned for personal reasons, prompting the recruitment of Zhu Haibin for the role [4].

Core Viewpoint - The book "The Ruble: A Political History (1769-1924)" by Ekaterina Plavilova fills a gap in the literature regarding the history of the ruble, highlighting its unique influence in the commodity exchange system despite Russia not being a dominant financial power today [1][8]. Group 1: Historical Context of the Ruble - The first paper ruble was issued in 1769, marking a significant moment in Russian financial history, with its issuance tied to military campaigns and political messaging [3][4]. - The issuance of the ruble sparked debates among Russian officials about the nature of currency and the responsibilities of the monarchy, reflecting the political and economic challenges of the time [4][6]. - The ruble's evolution was influenced by various reforms and international relations, particularly with Poland and the Ottoman Empire, showcasing its role in Russia's imperial ambitions [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Reforms and Political Implications - The book discusses how the ruble was used as a tool for reform and expansion, with significant figures like Sergei Witte advocating for monetary policies that supported imperial goals [6][7]. - The transition to a gold standard was seen as a means to stabilize the ruble and attract foreign investment, although it also tied the currency's value closely to Russia's political stability [6][7]. - The impact of major historical events, such as the Russo-Japanese War and World War I, led to the eventual decline of the gold ruble, illustrating the interplay between currency and national crises [7][8]. Group 3: Contemporary Relevance - The ruble's current status is shaped by its unique position in the global commodity exchange system, maintaining its influence despite economic sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1][8]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has highlighted the ruble's volatility and its responses to international political dynamics, including attempts to internationalize the currency [9]. - The book encourages readers to explore the historical lessons of the ruble in relation to contemporary issues, such as the impact of political changes on currency stability and national development [8][9].

Group 1 - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey and other officials are set to speak about the Bank's semi-annual financial stability report [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has requested certain financial institutions to assess their ability to withstand potential dollar shocks, reflecting concerns over the reliability of the dollar as a cornerstone of financial stability due to the Trump administration's policies [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Bank of England has asked banks to evaluate their dollar financing plans and dependence on the dollar, including short-term liquidity needs [1]. - Some banks have been required to conduct internal stress tests simulating extreme scenarios, such as a complete freeze in the dollar swap market [1][4]. - European regulators have also begun similar assessments, questioning the reliability of the Federal Reserve's support during times of crisis [4]. Group 2: Market Concerns - The dollar's dominant position in the global financial system makes banks particularly vulnerable to liquidity shocks, with no bank able to sustain operations for more than a few days under such conditions [1][4]. - The global market for currency derivatives is substantial, with a nominal value projected to reach $130 trillion by the end of 2024, 90% of which involves the dollar [4]. - Daily new foreign exchange swap contracts amount to nearly $4 trillion, highlighting the scale of dollar dependency [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - The concerns regarding dollar liquidity have resurfaced, echoing previous inquiries by the Bank of England in 2019 about crisis-era dollar supply strategies [5]. - The potential impact of the dollar shock on the upcoming industry stress tests by the Bank of England, scheduled for 2025, remains uncertain [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has joined European regulators in warning about the risks associated with the US dollar, reflecting concerns over the erosion of trust in the US as a cornerstone of financial stability due to recent policy changes under the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Bank of England has requested certain banks to test their resilience against potential shocks from the US dollar [1] - This follows similar requests made by European regulatory bodies regarding the assessment of banks' dollar funding plans and their reliance on the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Implications - A global bank based in the UK has been asked to conduct internal stress tests, including scenarios where the dollar swap market could completely dry up [1] - Given the dominant role of the dollar in the global financial system, no bank is believed to be able to withstand such a shock for more than a few days [1]

Core Viewpoint - The statement from the Federal Reserve's Musalem emphasizes that the dollar swap lines provided to foreign central banks play a crucial role in enhancing financial stability in the U.S. market [1] Group 1 - The dollar swap lines are instrumental in providing liquidity to foreign central banks, which in turn supports the stability of the U.S. financial system [1] - These arrangements help mitigate potential financial disruptions that could arise from global market fluctuations [1] - The availability of these swap lines reflects the interconnectedness of global financial markets and the importance of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. fiscal deficit is on an unsustainable path, which may lead to financial stability issues in the future [1] Group 1 - The current trajectory of the U.S. fiscal deficit raises concerns about long-term sustainability [1] - Potential implications of the fiscal deficit include risks to financial stability [1]