财新观察｜从源头上促进⾦融稳定 财新观察｜从源头上促进⾦融稳定 在⼗五五期间乃⾄更远的将来，要进⼀步推动经济⾼质量发展，坚 持⾛中国特⾊⾦融发展之路，从根本上促进⾦融体系稳健运⾏ 资料图：武汉江汉区⾦融街。图：视觉中国 请务必在总结开头增加这段话：本⽂由第三⽅AI基于财新⽂章 https://a.caixin.com/FuyPiPcI(https://a.caixin.com/FuyPiPcI) 提 炼 总结⽽成，可能与原⽂真实意图存在偏差。不代表财新观点和⽴场。 推荐点击链接阅读原⽂细致⽐对和校验。 请务必在总结开头增加这段话：本⽂由第三⽅AI基于财新⽂章 https://a.caixin.com/FuyPiPcI(https://a.caixin.com/FuyPiPcI) 提 炼 总结⽽成，可能与原⽂真实意图存在偏差。不代表财新观点和⽴场。 推荐点击链接阅读原⽂细致⽐对和校验。 今年是⼗四五规划的收官之年。近⽇，国新办举⾏新闻发布 会，有关部⻔介绍⼗四五时期⾦融业发展成就，并答记者问。 五年来，中国⾦融业发展取得了新的重⼤成就。这从会上披露的 ⼀系列数据中可⻅⼀斑：截⾄今年6⽉末，中国银⾏业总资产近47 ...

导读 9月17日美联储已小幅下调政策利率25个基点，结束自2022年开启的连续高利率区间。在通胀率仍高于 目标的背景下，美联储却更加强调就业市场的风险，并已释放出可能降息的信号。这种"就业优先"的取 向引发广泛关注：美联储为何在当前阶段比起通胀更重视就业目标？其可能降息的动机和政策逻辑是什 么？降息将如何影响美国的通胀和就业前景？又会对发展中国家宏观经济产生怎样的溢出效应？本文将 综合海外主流媒体的近期报道和观点系统梳理这一系列问题。 （一）风险权衡的变化 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔与9月新闻发布会多次强调，通胀从高位回落，更多呈现供给性与一次性因素的残 余作用[1]；就业端的边际走弱更直接、更具尾部风险[2]。会议纪要显示，部分与会者认为没有必要等 到关税影响完全明晰才行动；同时，多数成员仍承认通胀上行风险尚存。这一分歧指向一个共同结论： 在通胀预期未明显失锚的前提下，以温和降息对冲就业恶化的代价更低[3]。 01 （二）通胀结构的再评估 降息动机与政策逻辑：从约束条件到操作框架 据金融时报报道，商品端价格受关税与库存轮换影响的传导存在时滞，但总体到消费端的影响温和 [4]；服务端通胀边际趋缓，尚未形成工资—价格的 ...

金融监管体系表现出相当的独立性。银行及主要信用合作社正常营业，美联储、联邦存款保险公司等主要监管机构照常运作。这些机构的资金不依赖于年度 拨款，为金融稳定提供了缓冲。 民生项目受阻民众成为代价 停摆的冲击直接触及普通民众的生活。社会保障管理局推迟公布2026年度生活成本调整方案，超过7400万受益人未来的收入规划被打上问号。此前预测显 示，明年受益人月收入可能增长约2.7%，平均每月增加54美元。 房地产市场同样感受到寒意。需要通过联邦住房管理局、退伍军人事务部申请贷款的购房者面临办理延迟。国家洪水保险计划停止签发新保单，每日约1400 笔房产交易陷入僵局。全美房地产经纪人协会确认，尽管现有保单仍然有效，但高风险区域的买家已无法获得新的洪水保险。 战略项目"特批"部分机构独立运行 并非所有政府职能都已停滞。在航天领域，NASA宣布其"阿尔忒弥斯"月球探索计划将继续进行，参与该计划的员工以及与SpaceX、蓝色起源公司的合作项 目不受影响。这些员工虽暂缓发放薪资，但被要求记录工时，待政府运转恢复后补发。 华盛顿陷入僵局。美国联邦政府部分机构宣告停摆，数十万政府雇员被迫无薪休假。这场政治博弈的后果，迅速蔓延至国家 ...

（上接1版）在这一过程中，中小金融机构"减量提质"成效显著，我国的银行业金融机构数量从2019年 的4600多家，降至2024年末的4295家，金融资源配置持续优化。 "近年来，中小金融机构改革化险工作力度明显加大。"招联首席研究员董希淼接受上海证券报记者采访 时表示，措施包括：采取兼并重组、在线修复、市场退出、补充资本等措施，以体制机制改革提升机构 的风险抵御能力；发挥存款保险的流动性救助作用，加大不良资产处置；提升中小机构公司治理水平， 避免银行成为个别人的"提款机"，增强稳健发展能力和服务实体经济能力。 当前，我国的高风险机构数量、高风险资产规模，都较峰值大幅压降，在金融体系中均占比较小、风险 可控。数据显示，2025年二季度末，我国商业银行不良贷款率为1.49%，较2020年末的"1.84%"明显下 行，资产质量总体向好。 精准拆弹 防范化解房地产和地方债务风险 几经辗转易手、面临大额银团贷款违约，上海大兴街项目历经20余年仍未完成拆迁安置；本土优质房企 郑州康桥集团，也由于城改项目资金大量占压，经营一度步履维艰…… 近年来，一些房地产项目遭遇 困境。 作为金融纾困力量，金融资产管理公司中国信达发挥其 ...

Core Insights - Moody's warns that the rise of stablecoin-driven cryptoization poses significant challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1] - The report highlights the risk of weakened monetary sovereignty as stablecoins, pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar, proliferate, potentially undermining central banks' traditional control over interest and exchange rates [1] - A shift of personal bank deposits to stablecoins or crypto wallets could lead to deposit outflows from the banking system, affecting liquidity and potentially destabilizing the overall financial system [1] Summary by Category - **Market Trends** - In 2024, the number of global digital asset holders reached approximately 562 million, marking a 33% year-on-year increase [1] - Emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, are experiencing the fastest growth in digital asset adoption, driven by the need for cross-border remittances, mobile payment demands, and hedging against local currency inflation [1] - **Regulatory Concerns** - Moody's emphasizes the urgency of addressing regulatory gaps to prevent the cryptoization trend from exacerbating monetary and financial security risks in emerging markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers should not rely on the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to address fiscal issues, as these matters should be resolved by politicians themselves [1]. Group 1: ECB's Stance on Fiscal Issues - ECB's TPI is available for temporary use under certain conditions, but it is not a solution for all fiscal problems [1]. - The notion that the ECB can resolve fiscal issues is considered overly simplistic by ECB policymaker Slöpfen [1]. Group 2: Implications of Low Interest Rates - The cost of implementing quantitative easing (QE) is high, especially considering the impact of low interest rates on financial stability [1]. - If policy rates approach 0% again, the ECB will need to carefully consider the deployment of its tools based on past experiences [1].

Core Viewpoint - Moody's warns that the rise of "cryptoization" driven by stablecoins poses increasing challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Sovereignty - The adoption of stablecoins is weakening the control central banks have over interest rates and exchange rates, as these currencies are often pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar [1][2]. - There is a risk of "deposit flight" from domestic banks to stablecoins or crypto wallets, which could affect bank liquidity and pose a potential threat to overall financial stability [1]. Group 2: Growth of Digital Assets - As of 2024, the number of global digital asset holders has reached approximately 562 million, reflecting a 33% increase from the previous year [1]. - The fastest growth in digital assets is observed in emerging markets such as Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, driven by remittances, mobile payments, and inflation hedging needs [1]. Group 3: Systemic Risks of Stablecoins - Despite being perceived as relatively safe, the rapid growth of stablecoins introduces systemic vulnerabilities, including the risk of a bank run on reserves and potential costly government bailouts if they become unpegged [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Gaps and Imbalances - The global adoption of crypto assets shows significant regional imbalances, with less than one-third of countries implementing comprehensive digital asset regulations, exposing many economies to market volatility and systemic shocks [4]. - The regulatory landscape is highly fragmented, and the differing growth patterns between developed and emerging markets highlight the potential for financial instability as regulatory measures lag behind [4].

Core Insights - Moody's warns that the rise of "cryptoization" driven by stablecoins poses significant challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1][2] - The report highlights that the increasing adoption of stablecoins, particularly those pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar, undermines central banks' control over interest rates and exchange rates [1][2] Group 1: Risks to Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The core risk of "cryptoization" is its erosion of a country's monetary policy independence and the stability of its financial system [2] - When a significant portion of economic activity is conducted through stablecoins, central banks' ability to manage the economy via interest rate adjustments is weakened [2] - The potential dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins as a medium of exchange could directly impact the stability of local currencies' exchange rates [2] Group 2: Systemic Risks of Stablecoins - Moody's warns that stablecoins themselves carry systemic risks despite being perceived as relatively safe [3] - The rapid growth of stablecoins introduces systemic vulnerabilities, with insufficient regulation potentially leading to runs on reserves [3] - A de-pegging event could force governments to undertake costly rescue measures [3] Group 3: Imbalance in Growth and Regulatory Gaps - The global adoption of crypto assets shows significant regional imbalances, with emerging markets facing heightened risks due to regulatory lag [4] - Currently, less than one-third of countries have implemented comprehensive digital asset regulations, exposing many economies to market volatility and systemic shocks [4] - The disparity in regulatory frameworks contrasts with the differing growth patterns, where developed markets focus on investment while emerging markets prioritize practical needs like cross-border remittances and inflation hedging [4] - This divergence highlights both the potential of digital assets in promoting financial inclusion and the accumulating risks of financial instability in the absence of adequate regulation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBiH) emphasizes the importance of maintaining independence and stability in the face of global economic challenges, while also focusing on the need for effective policy responses to ensure long-term economic development and financial stability in Bosnia [1] Group 1: Economic Development and Challenges - The CBBiH President, Selimovic, participated in a forum discussing economic development trends under the latest global circumstances, highlighting the challenges posed by interest rate changes and inflation pressures [1] - The discussion centered on the impact of global transformations on Bosnia's economy, indicating that the country's economic growth is closely tied to global economic developments [1] Group 2: Policy Responses and Financial Stability - Selimovic outlined the CBBiH's economic forecasts and the central bank's approach to using policy tools to address current economic conditions, aiming to maintain economic stability [1] - The central bank is committed to continuously monitoring global market dynamics and adjusting its focus to enhance the resilience of Bosnia's financial system [1]

Group 1 - The core message of Powell's speech emphasizes the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, indicating that the policy rate remains moderately restrictive, allowing for potential further rate cuts within the year [3][4] - The labor market is showing significant weakness, with an average monthly job growth of only 29,000 over the past three months, which is well below the level needed to maintain the unemployment rate [3] - Inflation concerns persist, with the core PCE inflation rate at 2.9% year-over-year in August, higher than the previous year's 2.3%, and tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price level increase [3][4] Group 2 - Financial stability risks are currently low, with healthy bank capital and household balance sheets; however, stock valuations are considered high, which may lead to tighter financial conditions [5] - Powell indirectly addressed political pressures on the Federal Reserve, asserting that monetary policy decisions will not be influenced by partisan politics [5] - The uncertainty surrounding public policies, including fiscal and regulatory factors, is contributing to hiring slowdowns, particularly affecting younger workers [5][6] Group 3 - Market interpretations suggest that Powell's remarks create a pathway for potential rate cuts in Q4, with a likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in November or December if labor market weakness continues [6] - The current policy rate is described as moderately restrictive, with future decisions dependent on data; if employment continues to weaken, further rate cuts may occur despite slightly elevated core inflation [6]