报告指出，韩国央行对进一步放松货币政策持谨慎态度，主要受制于三方面内部压力：一是家庭债务水 平持续高企；二是房地产市场价格仍面临上行风险；三是近期通胀出现回升迹象。上述因素共同强化了 金融稳定考量，限制了降息操作的空间。 与此同时，外部环境亦削弱了立即转向宽松的必要性。一方面，韩元汇率持续走软，加剧输入性通胀担 忧；另一方面，韩国第三季度GDP增长表现强于预期，显示经济具备一定内生韧性，降低了通过降息刺 激增长的紧迫性。（新华财经） 据穆迪分析最新研究报告预测，韩国央行将于28日召开的货币政策会议上决定维持基准利率在2.5%不 变。这一判断基于当前复杂的宏观经济环境和多重政策制约因素。 ...

来源：锦缎 时间：2025年11月20日 人物：Lisa D. Cook，美联储理事 演进主题：《政策制定者视角下的金融稳定》 地点：华盛顿特区乔治城大学麦克多诺商学院普萨罗斯金融市场与政策中心。 感谢丽娜。重返乔治城大学与普萨罗斯中心，我深感荣幸。*1 我曾在此地及周边度过许多时光，职业生涯初期还曾在此担任国会实习生。或许命运早有 预示——当年夏天我研究的课题之一便是《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案》。事实证明，年轻时接触这些知识确实令我获益良多。 作为美联储理事会金融稳定委员会主席，金融稳定始终是我关注的核心议题。请允许我首先表明：当前金融体系依然稳健，这得益于家庭与企业强劲的资 产负债状况，以及银行体系充足的整体资本水平。本月早些时候，美联储发布了半年度《金融稳定报告》最新版。该报告在确认体系韧性的同时，也指出 了近期报告中持续提示的若干风险与脆弱性。 今日我将重点论述三大脆弱性领域：资产估值；企业贷款从传统银行信贷向私人信贷的结构性转变；以及对冲基金在美国国债市场日益凸显的投资者角 色。最后，我将探讨一个长期议题——生成式人工智能在金融市场交易中的应用，这种技术既可能增强也可能削弱金融稳定。 首先让我们从宏观视 ...

Group 1 - The interest rate market is still pricing in no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Japanese Prime Minister indicated plans to issue new bonds for economic funding, but the total bond issuance will be lower than last year [1] - The Japanese Cabinet approved an economic stimulus package exceeding 21 trillion yen [1] Group 2 - SoftBank issued 46 billion yen in bonds, continuing its record-breaking bond issuance trend [1] - Vanke plans to further divest businesses and assets with low strategic relevance to improve cash flow and debt structure [1] - 15 newly issued technology innovation bond ETFs this year have each exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale, with the total bond ETF scale increasing by over 540 billion yuan this year [1] Group 3 - Insurance companies have issued over 70 billion yuan in bonds this year, with perpetual bonds becoming the main source of capital replenishment [1] - China Reinsurance has been approved to issue 4 billion yuan in 10-year redeemable capital replenishment bonds [1] - The Bond Connect Northbound trading recorded a transaction volume of 572.3 billion yuan in October, with an average daily transaction of 31.8 billion yuan [1] Group 4 - Wuhan Holdings successfully issued the second phase of its 2025 technology innovation perpetual corporate bonds [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US September non - farm data was mixed, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut was further dampened. The Fed's internal differences persisted, and the overall tone was hawkish. The risk appetite was generally weak. Domestically, the A - share market fell across the board with shrinking trading volume, and the bond market showed a differentiated trend [2][3]. - For precious metals, the strong non - farm employment data and the strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on the prices of gold and silver, and they were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. - For copper, the rebound of the US dollar index led to an adjustment of copper prices. The macro situation and industrial fundamentals jointly affected the market, and it was expected that the short - term adjustment would continue [6][7]. - For aluminum, the strong non - farm data in the US weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the aluminum price was suppressed. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline, and the Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, tin, etc., they were all affected by factors such as macro data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, showing different price trends such as wide - range fluctuations and shocks [12][16][18]. - For industrial products such as industrial silicon, soda ash, glass, and steel products, they were affected by factors such as production, inventory, and market demand, and their prices generally showed a trend of shock [19][25][27]. - For agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., they were affected by factors such as international trade, production progress, and policy expectations, and their prices fluctuated [30][34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. The August data was revised downward to negative growth. The economic data failed to eliminate the uncertainty of the December FOMC. Multiple Fed officials focused on financial stability and high - valuation risks, with a generally hawkish tone. The market currently priced the probability of no rate cut in December at about 60%. The stock market had a sharp intraday reversal, the US dollar index fluctuated around 100, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, and gold, copper, and oil slightly closed down [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking to 1.72 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the decline. The debt market showed a differentiated trend. The long - term interest rate rose, and the short - term interest rate declined. There was a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the debt market might fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures prices slightly corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed increased differences among policymakers on a December rate cut. The US September non - farm employment data was strong, but the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The probability of a December rate cut was low. The US Department of Labor will combine and release the October and November employment data on December 16. It was maintained that the prices of gold and silver were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, and LME copper adjusted downward. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper cooled down, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases due to high prices. The LME inventory rose to 158,000 tons. The September non - farm employment data in the US exceeded expectations, which further suppressed the expectation of a December rate cut. The WBMS data showed a shortage of 81,000 tons of global refined copper supply in September, and China's imports of refined copper in October decreased by 22.1% year - on - year. It was expected that the copper price would continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,806.5/ton, down 0.28%. The strong non - farm growth in the US in September weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, putting pressure on the aluminum price. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, mainly because the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices increased due to the decline in the absolute price. However, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline as consumption entered the off - season. The Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The overall supply of alumina was still in excess, the tender purchase price of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline, driving the spot price down. The market was dominated by a bearish atmosphere and continued to operate weakly [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The cost of cast aluminum was affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand side still had resilience. The rigid demand procurement would support the price at the bottom, and the price of ADC12 might stabilize and fluctuate in the short term [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and opened higher at night. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased. The import volume of zinc ore and refined zinc in October decreased compared with the previous month. The LME inventory increased since early November, and the risk of a short squeeze decreased. The zinc price lacked a trend and maintained a wide - range fluctuation [12][13][14]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The import volume of lead concentrate in October decreased compared with the previous month. The social inventory decreased slightly this week. After the delivery of the current - month contract, the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased, and the absolute inventory was still low. The supply in some regions was tight, but the demand was difficult to boost. It was expected that the lead price would maintain a shock - adjustment trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated weakly during the day and opened slightly higher at night. The overseas tin mine复产 was slow, the domestic tin ore import volume in October still had a large year - on - year decline, and the raw material gap still existed, which restricted the release of refined tin production. The performance of NVIDIA exceeded expectations, and the AI demand still had room for imagination. However, in the short term, the Fed was likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in December, and the tin price would maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation [17][18]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side was affected by the decline in production in the southwest region during the dry season, and the supply margin decreased. The demand side was affected by factors such as the weakening of the market sentiment of polysilicon and the over - supply of battery cells. The market sentiment was repeated, and it was expected that the industrial silicon price would fluctuate within a range in the short term [19][20]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated widely, and the spot price rose. The exchange introduced a position - limit policy, which suppressed the bullish sentiment. The downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand, and the consumption still had an increase. The fundamental situation had not shown signs of weakness, but the bullish sentiment was cautious, and the lithium price might fluctuate widely [21][22]. 3.12 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price was weak. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. The cost of nickel ore remained high, squeezing the upstream profit. The demand for nickel sulfate entered the off - season, and the price declined. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the strength of cost support [23][24]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. The production of soda ash decreased, the opening rate declined, but the shipment volume increased, driving the inventory to decrease. The glass fundamentals were relatively weak, with the upstream opening rate decreasing and the enterprise inventory still accumulating. There were rumors that the real - estate industry might receive policy support, and it was expected that the prices would fluctuate at a low level [25][26]. 3.14 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory decline widened. However, the downstream steel entered the consumption off - season, the outdoor construction decreased, and the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained high. It was expected that the steel price would fluctuate [27]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures fluctuated. The supply of iron ore was under pressure, and the demand side had a short - term recovery in iron - water production, but the medium - term production - reduction expectation remained unchanged. It was expected that the iron - ore price would fluctuate under pressure [28]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The coking profit rebounded significantly this week, the demand for coking coal was restricted, and the mine production capacity utilization rate increased. It was expected that the prices would fluctuate weakly [29]. 3.17 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures declined. China continued to purchase US soybeans, and the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was lagging. The external - market price declined, and the import - cost support weakened. It was expected that the short - term soybean - meal price would fluctuate [30][31]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil futures declined. The US non - farm data was contradictory, the international oil price declined, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November decreased, and the sentiment of the US biodiesel policy cooled down. It was expected that the palm - oil price would fluctuate in the short term [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces significant internal divisions regarding interest rate policy amid conflicting economic signals, balancing a weak but stable labor market against persistent inflation and potential financial risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, warns that further rate cuts could exacerbate high inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets, emphasizing that current financial conditions are "quite loose" [1][2] - Mester opposes the recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, arguing that monetary policy's effectiveness in controlling price pressures is limited [2] - Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed, expresses caution regarding inflation data, noting that recent employment figures show stability but warns against premature rate cuts until inflation trends are confirmed [2][3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The delayed September non-farm payroll report shows an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating underlying weaknesses [3] - The market's focus has shifted from inflation narratives to growth and employment narratives following the employment report, reflecting the complexity of the current economic landscape [3] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will remain highly data-dependent, navigating the delicate balance between preventing market panic and avoiding economic slowdown [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Hamark emphasizes the importance of monitoring stablecoins and private credit, indicating that the current financial environment is "quite loose" and that interest rate cuts could distort market pricing levels, potentially prolonging high inflation scenarios [1] Group 1 - The current financial environment is described as "quite loose," suggesting ample liquidity in the market [1] - Interest rate cuts may pose risks by distorting market pricing levels and could lead to prolonged high inflation [1] - Lowering interest rates for risk management purposes could increase financial stability risks [1]

Group 1 - The global financial market is set to release several important economic data and events, with a particular focus on U.S. labor market indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1] - Key U.S. employment data will be released at 21:30 Beijing time, including the unemployment rate for September, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and average hourly earnings month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The release of these delayed data due to the previous government shutdown will provide crucial insights into the state of the U.S. labor market [1] Group 2 - Additional U.S. economic indicators to be released include the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November, annualized existing home sales for October, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month for October, which will help gauge the latest trends in the U.S. economy [3] - In Europe, key data such as Germany's PPI for October, Switzerland's trade balance for October, the CBI Industrial Orders Balance for the UK in November, and the preliminary consumer confidence index for the Eurozone in November are noteworthy for investors [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on financial stability at 00:00 the following day, followed by Goolsbee at 01:40, which may provide clues about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Bahrain emphasizes the need for increased investment in digital tools and regulatory technology (SupTech) to ensure the safety and stability of financial services [1] Group 1: Regulatory Perspective - Regulatory authorities must balance innovation promotion and enhanced supervision as competition intensifies between financial institutions and tech companies in the digital product space [1] - The Central Bank is continuously tracking the development of digital finance to ensure that banks, non-bank institutions, and tech companies operate under the same regulatory framework [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Investment - Commercial banks are encouraged to increase their investments in financial technology, as modern technology is reshaping the financial industry [1] - Systemic risk management remains a top priority for the Central Bank of Bahrain, highlighting the critical role of the financial sector in national economic growth, attracting foreign investment, and job creation [1] Group 3: Modernization of Regulatory Tools - Strengthening the modernization of regulatory tools and enhancing risk monitoring capabilities are necessary measures to ensure national financial stability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing tensions within the EU regarding financial support for Ukraine, particularly the skepticism surrounding Ukraine's ability to repay its debts totaling €160 billion [2][3] - France and Italy have expressed strong opposition to using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, raising concerns about the legality and potential financial repercussions for the EU [3][4] - The article emphasizes that while G7 nations publicly support Ukraine, they are reluctant to provide financial assistance, leaving the EU to shoulder the burden alone [3][4] Group 2 - Luxembourg's Prime Minister pointed out the legal impracticality of directly seizing Russian assets, indicating a lack of viable solutions for funding Ukraine's needs [4] - The article discusses the rising discontent among EU citizens regarding financial aid to Ukraine, especially in light of increasing domestic costs, such as heating expenses in Germany [4] - The call for a more unified and actionable response from G7 countries is underscored, suggesting that mere verbal support is insufficient to address the escalating financial crisis in Ukraine [4]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is warned about the potential systemic importance of stablecoins linked to the US dollar, which have surged in size, exceeding $300 billion, with a 48% increase this year [1] - Olaf Sleijpen, a member of the ECB's governing council, expressed concerns that a panic sell-off of underlying assets of unstable stablecoins could threaten financial stability and impact the broader economy and inflation [1] - The ECB may need to reconsider its monetary policy in response to the risks posed by stablecoins, although the direction of any policy adjustment remains uncertain [1] Group 2 - Despite the warnings regarding future risks, Sleijpen maintains a relatively optimistic view on current monetary policy, noting improvements in the Eurozone since June, with reduced trade uncertainty and better-than-expected economic growth [2] - He believes there is "no reason" to adjust interest rates based on current information, and views inflation risks as "balanced," contrasting with a more hawkish perspective from other ECB officials [2] - Investor expectations indicate only a 25% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of next year, reflecting a cautious outlook on future monetary policy adjustments [2]