我们来看一下财政的展望部分，我们还是判断明年会再次增发政府债券。为什么还会判断增发政府债 券？是因为我们基于前面对于经济整体判断，我们认为接下来9月份到四季度还是会面临一定的压力。 今年又应该说是稳增长比较重要的一年，所以说增发政府债券又是过去三年每年的下半年都发生的事 情，所以我们判断今年有可能再次提前发行像明年的特殊再融资债，或者是增加赤字，融一笔钱来解决 经济发展中遇到的困难。 货币政策这边我们预测还是会有总量的宽松，但是会遇到掣肘，我们央行的掣肘就是我们之前提过很多 次的金融稳定。金融稳定在今年以来在市场上很受到关注，其中核心关注的指标就是商业银行的加权净 息差。截止到二季度末，商业银行净息差已经降到了1.42%，持续低于满分的1.8%。应该说现在能达到 1.8%的银行已经很有限了。1.42%对应到银行的利润就是还能有一定的利润，但是利差如果进一步下行 到1.2%到1.3%，基本上银行所有的利润都要来补充资本，就没有办法产生真正意义上的利润了，就会 导致金融稳定出现问题。因为并不是所有的银行都是一样的净息差，一些银行如果显著低于这样的净息 差水平，它实际上就进入了利润下降的状态，对于央行非常关注的金融 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy**, **monetary policy**, and the **impact of US-China trade relations** on the market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Relations**: The uncertainty in US-China trade relations continues to affect domestic monetary policy and market sentiment. Although there has been a short-term easing, the long-term trend of decoupling remains unchanged, necessitating attention to potential policy tools from the Trump administration [1][2][15][17]. 2. **Manufacturing Policy**: China emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as a core policy, with incremental policy layouts focused on this sector. Despite a recovery in the first quarter, internal stability is lacking, and effective demand remains weak, indicating a need for continued fiscal support [1][4][30]. 3. **Monetary Policy Trends**: The central bank's monetary policy is showing a trend towards fiscal characteristics, with a potential tightening approach. Structural monetary policies are increasingly reflecting fiscal traits, and there may be a window for increased fiscal funding this year [1][7][8]. 4. **Market Interest Rates**: Current market interest rates have adjusted more significantly than policy rates, indicating an upward risk in interest rates. From early 2024 to now, policy rates have adjusted by 45 basis points, while market rates have adjusted by approximately 80 basis points [8][12]. 5. **Stock Market Opportunities**: Changes in fiscal direction present opportunities in the stock market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors. There is a trend of equity replacing debt in financing, with a focus on leading technology firms and inclusive consumption sectors [9][10][29]. 6. **Debt Market Outlook**: The outlook for the debt market in June suggests a potential rebound if the current liquidity conditions persist. Historical trends indicate that interest rates generally decline in June, and the market should be monitored for data changes around mid-June [16][20]. 7. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact**: The current macroeconomic policy is cautious and conservative, primarily aimed at stabilizing the economy. The easing of export-related pressures due to improved US-China relations may lead to slight short-term economic improvements [30][34]. 8. **RMB Internationalization**: The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a long-term strategy for China, with potential new policies expected to be announced at the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum. These policies aim to facilitate cross-border settlement and enhance the RMB's global use [32][33][34][35]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Government Debt and Market Rates**: Government debt levels are expected to peak in June, but the central bank's supportive measures are likely to mitigate significant negative impacts on interest rates [25]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: The recommendation is to adopt a bullish strategy in the short term, focusing on opportunities that may arise in June, particularly as the market adjusts to the end of the export peak [26][27]. 3. **Sector Focus**: Key sectors to watch include new consumption and pharmaceuticals, large state-owned enterprises undergoing mergers and acquisitions, and traditional core assets represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [29]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the ongoing dynamics in the Chinese economy and the implications of US-China trade relations on various sectors and policies.