Core Viewpoint - Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, suggests a policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, advocating for an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields hit critical levels, potentially triggering a market crash [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hartnett describes a fundamental shift in market logic, comparing the Trump administration's fiscal approach to moving from a "detox" mode to an unrestrained "gorge" mode, leading to a significant embrace of large-scale spending [1]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is identified as a key catalyst for the current market rally, with volatility measures (MOVE and VIX) at their lowest since February 19 [1]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Hartnett's trading advice emphasizes maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the U.S., 5.6% for the U.K., and 3.2% for Japan [3]. - The current market sentiment is summarized as "buy the election, sell the inauguration," indicating a rotation strategy rather than withdrawal from the market [4]. - The "Anything but Bonds" trading logic is gaining traction globally, with gold being the best-performing asset over the past decade, up 114%, while U.S. Treasuries have declined by 1% [4][5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - Bank of America forecasts that U.S. debt issuance will surge, pushing total debt past $50 trillion by 2032, with demand expected to decline until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett argues that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to the creation of a "beautiful bubble" to manage the massive fiscal deficits [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of market bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a market correction if it shows extreme optimism, such as cash levels below 4% or over 90% of respondents expecting a "soft landing" [12]. - Hartnett emphasizes that as long as policy support remains, risk appetite will persist, with no immediate "policy dragon" to disrupt the market [13].