Core Viewpoint - A policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, and investors should adopt an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields breach critical levels, triggering a market collapse [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment reflects a shift from fiscal detox to unrestrained spending, creating a "beautiful bubble" to cover massive bills, with risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies responding positively [2][9]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is a key catalyst for the current rally, as evidenced by the low levels of volatility in both bond and stock markets [2][12]. - Hartnett suggests maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the US 30-year Treasury, 5.6% for the UK, and 3.2% for Japan [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Performance - Hartnett emphasizes that bonds are the least favored asset class, with the trading logic of "Anything but Bonds" gaining traction globally [4]. - Over the past decade, gold has risen by 114%, outperforming other asset classes, while US Treasuries have declined by 1% [5]. - The ratio of European stocks to bonds has surpassed 2000 highs, indicating the end of a long-term deflationary era in Europe and Japan [5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - The surge in US debt issuance is projected to push total debt beyond $50 trillion by 2032, with demand declining until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett warns that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to a "beautiful bubble" financed by massive deficits [9][11]. - A long-term bearish trend for the US dollar is anticipated, with recommendations to increase allocations to commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets in the latter half of the 2020s [11]. Group 4: Market Signals and Investor Sentiment - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12][13]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a typical profit-taking or summer pullback if it shows extreme optimism [12]. - Hartnett highlights a divergence in market sentiment, with macro strategists fearing a bond market sell-off while equity and credit market participants remain optimistic due to anticipated economic prosperity ahead of midterm elections [13][14]. Group 5: Policy Environment - The global policy environment remains accommodative, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates, supporting risk appetite [14]. - Despite a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the US compared to 2024, upcoming tax cuts in 2026 and increasing fiscal stimulus from Europe and NATO are expected to provide effective counterbalances [14]. - The consensus is that any negative macro impacts from US tariff increases will be quickly mitigated, reinforcing investor risk appetite and driving the ongoing global stock market rally [14].

Core Viewpoint - Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, suggests a policy-driven global stock market melt-up is underway, advocating for an "All In" strategy until long-term bond yields hit critical levels, potentially triggering a market crash [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hartnett describes a fundamental shift in market logic, comparing the Trump administration's fiscal approach to moving from a "detox" mode to an unrestrained "gorge" mode, leading to a significant embrace of large-scale spending [1]. - The extreme indifference to policy risks is identified as a key catalyst for the current market rally, with volatility measures (MOVE and VIX) at their lowest since February 19 [1]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Hartnett's trading advice emphasizes maintaining full exposure to risk assets until long-term Treasury yields reach "jailbreak" levels: 5.1% for the U.S., 5.6% for the U.K., and 3.2% for Japan [3]. - The current market sentiment is summarized as "buy the election, sell the inauguration," indicating a rotation strategy rather than withdrawal from the market [4]. - The "Anything but Bonds" trading logic is gaining traction globally, with gold being the best-performing asset over the past decade, up 114%, while U.S. Treasuries have declined by 1% [4][5]. Group 3: Debt and Economic Outlook - Bank of America forecasts that U.S. debt issuance will surge, pushing total debt past $50 trillion by 2032, with demand expected to decline until interest rates rise sufficiently to attract investors [8]. - Hartnett argues that the inability to cut spending or significantly raise tariffs will lead to the creation of a "beautiful bubble" to manage the massive fiscal deficits [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite a bullish stance, Hartnett notes increasing signs of market bubbles, with a general optimism among investors leading to a lack of concern about economic conditions or valuations [12]. - The upcoming Fund Manager Survey (FMS) could signal a market correction if it shows extreme optimism, such as cash levels below 4% or over 90% of respondents expecting a "soft landing" [12]. - Hartnett emphasizes that as long as policy support remains, risk appetite will persist, with no immediate "policy dragon" to disrupt the market [13].