沃什获新任美联储主席提名，短期不改美联储宽松基调。国内1月PMI回落，内需仍需政策呵护。权益 市场ETF流出或告一段落，风险偏好维持高位，看好后续行情。 海外方面，沃什获新任美联储主席提名，主张降息+中长期缩表，短期不会改变美联储宽松基调，亦难 无序降息。金融条件友好托底海外制造业，美国1月标普制造业PMI超预期，未来一段时间海外增长维 持韧性。 国内方面，2026年1月制造业PMI再度回落至收缩区间，供需分项均较季节性水平走弱，而购进价格指 数高位进一步上行、出厂价格回升至景气度区间，或显示上游原材料价格的快速上涨短期对制造业供需 产生一定抑制。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周（1月26日-30日）黄金、白银冲高后巨震，股市震荡回调，债市走势分 化，短端利率上行、长端利率下行。近期商品和权益市场调整，风险偏好下降对债券市场偏友好，但1 月中旬国新办发布会邹行长提及十年期国债在1.8%-1.9%稳定运行，叠加近期银行配债已较为积极，后 续长端利率向下突破1.8%关键点位阻力加大。1月PMI重回收缩区间但出厂价格指数回暖，通胀预期下 货币宽松预期不足，债市向下突破或需看到风险偏好的全面回落和货币政策的明确宽松。 ...

Core Insights - The bond market in 2025 has experienced significant fluctuations despite relatively low interest rate volatility, with 20 to 30 basis points being sufficient to create discomfort among bond professionals [1] - The year has been characterized as one where the bond market has become desensitized to fundamentals, with market movements not aligning with economic pressures [1] Summary by Categories Market Dynamics - Three key factors influencing the bond market in 2025 include: 1. A decline in the stability of the market's liability side, shifting from consensus expectations to divergence, leading to a reduction in the scale of bond assets for trading-oriented institutions [2] 2. Divergence in weak inflation narratives, with market sentiment shifting from extreme pessimism to divergence following the implementation of inward policy [2] 3. An economic transition entering a turning point, with industry differentiation and economic resilience coexisting, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for economic transformation [2] Institutional Behavior - Institutional behavior has been a crucial variable driving market transactions and catalyzing trends, particularly concerning insurance liability changes and banks' interest rate risk management [3] - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) has emerged as a core value proposition, aligning with banks' off-balance sheet asset return needs and capturing opportunities in a low-interest environment, potentially offering stable returns for investors [3]