证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2026 03 02 年 月 日 固定收益定期 债看内部 上周债市总体震荡，超长表现偏弱。上周债市先跌后涨，总体呈现震荡态势。上周 10 年国债利率累计下行 1.5bps 至 1.78%，而超长债表现偏弱，30 年国债累计上 行 2.7bps 至 2.27%。二永小幅调整，3 年和 5 年 AAA-二级资本债分别上升 1.2bps 和 3.3bps。而存单利率小幅下行，1 年 AAA 存单利率下行 0.5bps 至 1.58%。 美以袭击伊朗，国际冲突加剧，从以往经验来看，对国内债市影响或有限。中东局 势恶化，这可能带来全球风险偏好下降，资金涌入债券等避险资产，驱动利率下 降。另一方面，石油供给冲击之下，全球通胀压力存在再度抬升可能，而这有可能 加剧利率上行压力。实际上，从以往几次战争冲突后国内债市走势来看，并无明确 的规律。例如伊拉克战争、利比亚战争之后，利率更多是下行，而俄乌冲突之后， 利率则有短暂上行。国内债市更多还是受内部经济、货币环境影响，地缘政治冲突 可能是较为间接的非主要影响因素。而且从冲击来看，还得密切关注时态发展，如 果冲突很快缓解， ...

他说，英镑在过去一年中的强劲表现以及其他国家能源和生产成本的降低，有助于促进英国进口更 便宜的产品。 决议基金会智库的贸易经济学家索菲·黑尔表示，服务业数据揭示了英国在该领域的"长期优势"， 近几年来，全球服务贸易的增长速度一直快于货物贸易，这一趋势使英国受益，英国是仅次于美国的全 球第二大服务贸易出口国。 英国国家统计局今天公布的数据显示，英国2025年的货物贸易逆差将达到2483亿英镑，比上一年增 加305亿英镑，是自1997年开始统计数据以来的最大逆差。相比之下，英国服务出口额比进口额高出 1918亿英镑，比上一年增加了164亿英镑。商品和服务进口额增加了 320 亿英镑，增幅为 3.4%，达到 9592 亿英镑。出口额本年度增长179亿英镑，增幅2%，达到9028亿英镑。这意味着去年整体贸易逆差 扩大了141亿英镑，达到560亿英镑。 英国制造业贸易机构 Make UK 的经济学家 Fhaheen Khan 表示，英国的商品贸易逆差是"工业生产 长期下降"的结果。 （原标题：英国2025年货物贸易逆差创历史新高） 《金融时报》2月12日报道，2025年英国货物进出口贸易逆差达到历史最大值，而服务贸易则 ...

新 春 快 乐 顺流逆流，皆为行路的风景；心有罗盘，便有笃定的方向。券商中国微信平台粉丝总量已强势突破600 万大关，值此2026年新春佳节来临之际，我们深深感恩每一位读者朋友长久的信任与陪伴。在此，券商 中国、券中社APP诚邀各大金融机构共同录制新春寄语视频，一起回顾2025年的精彩历程与深刻洞察， 携手展望2026年的崭新蓝图与无限可能。 鑫元基金党委书记、董事长龙艺在《预见金马》年终策划中表示，展望2026年，宏观政策将持续靠前发 力，经济转型向纵深突破，逆周期调节与跨周期调控协同增效，经济治理效能稳步提升，资本市场运行 环境将持续得到改善。同时，随着房地产金融属性弱化、存款加速"脱媒"，居民与企业金融资产配置需 求持续释放，为公募基金行业打开了长期发展空间。 以下为视频全文： 各位证券时报的读者朋友们，大家好，我是鑫元基金党委书记、董事长龙艺。 灵蛇辞旧岁，骏马踏春归。在这辞旧迎新、万象更新的美好时刻，我谨代表鑫元基金全体同仁，向长期 以来关心支持我们的广大投资者、合作伙伴及社会各界朋友，致以最诚挚的新春问候和最美好的节日祝 福，祝大家新春快乐、阖家安康、万事顺意、马到成功！ 2025年，鑫元基金紧紧 ...

Economic Overview - Vietnam, once seen as the "next Asian miracle," is now facing challenges due to global economic changes, including capital outflows and inflation pressures following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022 [1] - The country has experienced a significant depreciation of its currency, with the exchange rate moving from 23,000 VND to 25,000 VND per USD, leading to increased import costs for businesses [6] Historical Context - Vietnam's economic transformation began in the late 1980s with the "Doi Moi" policy, which opened the country to foreign investment and led to significant GDP growth, averaging over 6% from 2010 to 2015 [3][4] - The country has become an important part of the global manufacturing supply chain, attracting major companies like Samsung and Nike due to its low labor costs and strategic location [3] Current Economic Challenges - The influx of foreign investment has created a reliance on labor-intensive industries, with core technologies still imported, and infrastructure development lagging behind economic growth [4] - In 2022, Vietnam saw a net outflow of over $30 billion in foreign investment, raising concerns about its economic model and the risk of "hollowing out" its industries [6][8] Future Projections - The Vietnamese government is taking steps to improve infrastructure and attract high-quality foreign investments, with GDP projected to reach $4,763 billion in 2024, growing by 7.1% [10] - By 2025, Vietnam aims for a GDP growth target of at least 8%, with international organizations predicting growth rates between 5.6% and 6.6% [12] Comparative Analysis - Unlike Japan's historical economic bubble, Vietnam has managed to avoid excessive inflation and currency collapse, maintaining a stable exchange rate and a vibrant stock market [14] - Vietnam's early adoption of lessons from China's reform and opening-up has facilitated its industrialization, but it still lags behind China in terms of supply chain completeness and technological reserves [16]

骏马追风，春鼓催程。回望2025年，资本市场打开了崭新的篇章。市场绝大部分指数都在年内实现了上 涨，投资者的热情与关注度不断上升。同时，代表经济转型方向的新消费、科技创新等行业在年内大放 异彩，给投资者带来了高昂的回报，这也坚定了投资者后续继续通过资本市场享受经济发展红利的信 心。 （文章来源：中国基金报） 展望2026年，我们认为今年从多个维度都值得期待。首先还是宏观经济层面，我们认为整个经济基础在 不断夯实，新的创新点在不断萌发。投资者可能要摈弃过去长期传统观察经济的方法论，投资拉动增速 的时代已逐渐落幕；后续整体增长依赖的是能效以及质量的提升，同时科技进步对于很多传统行业的重 塑与改善可能也需要投资者及时更新自己的信息库。 作为经济趋势的一个表象反映，资本市场在未来也将起到各位重要的作用。过去全社会核心资产主要是 以房地产为基础的基建项目，而投资拉动盈利的模式决定了资产价格的上涨更多依赖持续的融资，这就 导致现金流状况很差，从而使得边际投资回报率在后期难以维系；这也是过去资本市场长期以融资扩大 资产负债表规模为增长来源，投资者更喜欢在周期化的投资周期内做高抛低吸的交易。而当经济增长从 注重速度转向注重质 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of the Chinese economy is a critical issue that requires a new analytical framework due to the failure of traditional analysis methods in interpreting current economic phenomena and guiding market investment activities [2]. Group 1: Systematic Analysis of Economic Transformation - The transformation process is a complex system project that involves vast amounts of data, necessitating a clear understanding of economic operation logic while avoiding overly broad narratives [2]. - Different economic entities have unique endowments and external environments at key stages of transformation, making it essential to rely on extensive data to approach the truth and identify universal patterns that can provide insights for China's transformation [2]. - Structural differentiation during the transformation is significant, breaking traditional economic laws, which requires solid micro-foundations to support macro-logical deductions [2]. Group 2: Personal Reflection and Growth - The research on economic transformation has been a long-standing interest and focus area for the company, with the process of learning, thinking, and reconstructing frameworks spanning nearly a decade of professional experience [4]. - Deepening the understanding of transformation issues benefits personal development and aids in comprehending recent economic and financial phenomena [4]. - The concept of transformation is not fixed; it requires selecting the most suitable direction based on endowment differences, and it is a systemic overhaul that transcends mere economic issues [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the social financing scale in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bond financing at 976.4 billion yuan, marking the highest proportion in nearly five years at 13.5% [1][3] - Government bond financing saw a year-on-year increase of 283.1 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the total social financing, while the increase in RMB loans was 4.71 trillion yuan, which was a decrease of 420 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4] - The article emphasizes the collaborative efforts of fiscal and monetary policies, with the National Development and Reform Commission advancing 295 billion yuan for construction projects, and the central bank lowering the structural tool interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, releasing approximately 770 billion yuan in low-cost funds [4][5] Group 2 - The financing structure is undergoing adjustments during the economic transformation period, with traditional manufacturing credit demand slowing and emerging industries relying on long-term capital [5][6] - The article notes that some new bonds are used to replace high-interest hidden debts, with Liaoning reducing its weighted interest rate to 2.21%, saving over 300 million yuan in interest [5][6] - The government bond high proportion is expected to continue in the short term, with infrastructure investment growth likely to rebound, although there are potential challenges regarding rising debt rates in some provinces [6][7] Group 3 - There is a need to optimize the financing structure in the long term, with a focus on enhancing direct financing, as corporate bond financing in January was only 503.3 billion yuan, and equity financing was 29.1 billion yuan [7] - The article suggests deepening policy collaboration, emphasizing the need for financial support to align with fiscal subsidies and risk compensation [7] - The conclusion indicates that the high proportion of government bonds is not merely a result of excessive liquidity but rather a proactive approach underpinned by active fiscal policies in a supportive monetary environment [7]

Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the monetary policy meeting on January 28, with a focus on potential adjustments to economic growth forecasts amid a complex trade environment [1] - The Canadian economy heavily relies on manufacturing, high-tech industries, and services, supported by natural resources, with steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors being critical [3] Steel and Aluminum Industry - Canada's steel and aluminum industry faces significant challenges, with over $12 billion in annual exports to the U.S., where more than 40% of revenue is dependent on the U.S. market [4] - U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum are set to increase from 25% to 50% by 2025, severely impacting export competitiveness and leading to a reduction in orders and idle machinery [4] - The automotive industry, which relies on steel and aluminum, is also experiencing a slowdown, with annual production nearly halving compared to a decade ago [4] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector's decline is exacerbated by high tariffs, which are expected to reduce the share of U.S. imports from Canada from nearly 50% to one-third by 2025 [6] - High interest rates are dampening consumer enthusiasm for vehicle purchases, contributing to a shrinking automotive market [4] Economic Impact and Consumer Sentiment - The decline in manufacturing is expected to negatively affect related sectors such as mining, logistics, and technology services, ultimately lowering national economic growth [6] - Canadian consumer prices are projected to rise, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to exceed the 2% target, reaching 2.6% by February 2025 [7] - Consumer spending has shown a decline, with a notable drop in September and October 2025, despite a slight rebound in November [7] Employment Market Dynamics - A survey indicates that the percentage of Canadians expecting an economic recession within a year has increased from 15% to 32%, with 66.5% of consumers expressing pessimism [9] - The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in December 2025, the highest in over two years, with a record number of job seekers entering the market without a corresponding increase in job creation [9] - The job market shows a dichotomy, with growth in sectors like healthcare and education, while manufacturing and construction, particularly in steel, aluminum, and automotive, face significant job losses [9][10] Steel Industry Export Decline - Canadian steel exports to the U.S. are projected to plummet by 36.6% year-on-year by October 2025, leading to reduced hiring and investment in the sector [10] - The cycle of external shocks leading to low employment and subsequent consumer spending decline is creating a negative feedback loop for the economy [10]

保加利亚正加快推进加入经济合作与发展组织（OECD）。2月5日，OECD秘书长马蒂亚斯·科尔曼在索 非亚发布《2025年保加利亚经济调查》时表示，保加利亚在入约进程中取得了显著进展，双方正密切协 作，力争在2026年底前完成全部加入程序。他强调，OECD成员国身份并非象征性的政治标签，而是对 一国投资潜力、治理能力和营商环境的有力国际背书。 科尔曼指出，近年来保加利亚经济总体保持稳定增长，在缩小与发达经济体收入差距方面表现相对稳 健，这为其推进入约奠定了基础。然而，从中长期看，保加利亚仍面临一系列结构性挑战，尤其是生产 率增长乏力、劳动力技能供给不足以及教育体系与经济发展需求脱节等问题。如不能持续推进改革，当 前的增长势头难以长期维持。 分析人士认为，随着欧元正式成为保加利亚的法定货币，该国经济政策正进入一个新的协调阶段。欧元 的采用有助于增强金融稳定性、降低交易成本，但也意味着货币政策空间进一步收紧，对财政纪律、结 构改革和风险防控提出更高要求。在这一背景下，加入OECD被普遍视为对保加利亚改革决心和政策能 力的又一次重要检验。 总体来看，保加利亚当前正处在经济转型和制度升级的关键窗口期。欧元区成员身份与O ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese economy, with expected GDP growth targets adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5% for 2026, reflecting a conservative approach to fiscal policy and economic expectations [1][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is experiencing uneven growth, with exports and manufacturing growth exceeding 5%, while the real estate sector is significantly declining, indicating a structural economic transition towards technology innovation [1][3]. - Local government meetings have revealed a downward adjustment in growth targets for 2026, with a weighted average decrease from 5.3% to 5.1%, suggesting a cautious outlook across most provinces [5][6]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is about 4% for 2026, which is higher than the market's implied rate of 2.5%, but the negative impacts on exports and inflation are expected to be limited [1][9][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Expectations - The expected GDP growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with an inflation target maintained at around 2% [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at approximately 4% of GDP, with special government bond issuance expected to be consistent with the previous year [7]. Local Government Insights - A majority of provinces have lowered their growth targets, with 21 out of 31 provinces adjusting their goals downwards, indicating a collective preparation for a more cautious economic environment [5][6]. - Core provinces like Beijing and Shanghai have maintained their growth targets around 5%, while Guangdong has adjusted its target down to 4.5%-5% [5]. Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate by about 4% in 2026, which may lead to increased export prices and reduced import prices, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures [11][13]. - CPI is projected to decrease to 0.3% year-on-year in January 2026, while PPI is expected to be -1.4%, indicating a need to monitor manufacturing cost-driven inflation [16]. Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, despite significant sell-offs by state-owned entities, with retail investor sentiment remaining high [17]. - There has been a strong inflow of capital from southbound investments, with net purchases reaching $16 billion, indicating robust interest in Hong Kong stocks [18]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to reach a bottom within at least 12 months, with current policy support deemed insufficient to stimulate demand effectively [29].