全国与房地产相关的贷款占银行信贷的比重接近40%； 房地产业相关收入占地方综合财力的50%； 房地产占城镇居民资产的60%。 此外，房子还与建筑，建材，机械，装修，家居，旅游等等诸多产业关联， 资料显示，房地产行业关联着60多个行业，甚至上亿人的就业，如果房子一直下行下去，这些行业势必受影响。而这些行业的衰退，又会拖累经济。 整个社会的财富不是铁板一块，如果防止淋浴举步维艰，更或者说，这个市场一旦出现崩盘，那么社会财富的格局也会发生巨变。 很，比如普通老百姓家庭80%的财富都在房子上，而且绝大多数家庭基本上都是采取透支往后二三十年的收入，在城市买房， 一旦市场崩了，就会影响到普通家庭的财富，他们的房子不值钱，整个家庭的经济实力也会变得很脆弱。 长期以来，各地依赖土地收入，这个不需要过多解释， 根据《中国卖地财政依赖度报告》显示，全国多地卖地收入占比财收50%，有的地区土地出让金占比财收高达65%。 说的通俗易懂一点，以前很多地方都是靠卖地，地方的基础设施和保障民生都是靠土地出让金来维持。 如果房子一直萎靡，不嫁给地方"输血"，地方财收受影响，很多项目都可能因此中断，影响民生保障。 所以说进入新的发展阶段以后， ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产有所回升，基建开工延续改善，港口货运量保持韧性。 【工业生产】工业生产有所回升。 本周，高炉开工率同比边际上行1.1pct至5.9%。中游生产景气分化， PTA、汽车开工表现偏弱，同比分别+0.1pct 至-6.6%、+1.1pct 至-5.9%；纯碱、涤纶长丝开工好于去年同 期，同比分别+0.1pct至5.8%、+0.9pct至3.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工延续改善 。本周，全国粉磨开工率同比-1.5pct至-5.6%；水泥出货率仍在低位， 同比+0.8pct至-2.9%。沥青开工率延续上行，同比+0.5pct至8.6%。 上游生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均好于去年同期。 本周（08月17日至08月23日），高炉开工率 延续高位、同比较前周+1.1至5.9%，表观消费也好于去年同期，同比-1.9pct至1.9%。此外，钢材社会库存有 所回升。 【下游需求】人流出行仍在高位，港口货运量保持韧性。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积偏弱，同比+2.9pct 至-6.3% ；其中，一线成交有所回升。货运方 ...

8月27日午后，A股市场上演了一场"股价争霸"的戏码。芯片企业寒武纪盘中最高冲至1464.98元/股，短暂超越股王贵州茅台的1460.66元，一度成为A股新 股王。 寒武纪和茅台是当前A股市场唯二的"千元股"。 ▶寒武纪营收大增超4000% 8月26日晚间，中科寒武纪科技股份有限公司（以下简称"寒武纪"）披露2025年半年度报告。公告显示，今年上半年，寒武纪实现营业收入约28.81亿元， 较上年同期增加约28.16亿元，同比增长4347.82%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为10.38亿元，归属上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约 为9.13亿元，均实现了扭亏为盈。 | | | | 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要会计数据 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比十年 | | | (1-6月) | | 同期增减(%) | | 营业收入 | 2.880.643.471.09 | 64.765.343.16 | 4.347.82 | | 利润总额 | 1,037,754,567.13 | -533.186.882.24 | 不适用 | | 归属于上 ...

Economic Overview - Cameroon, often referred to as "Africa in miniature," faces significant challenges in economic and social development due to international instability and terrorism threats [1] - The country has a diverse geography and rich natural resources, with a land area of over 470,000 square kilometers and a population exceeding 28 million [2] - Cameroon is known as the "granary of Central Africa," with fertile lands and a variety of agricultural products, including rubber, bananas, and palm oil [2] Resource Potential - The forest area in Cameroon covers 22.5 million hectares, accounting for approximately 46.3% of the country's land, with a timber reserve of 4 billion cubic meters [2] - The country has abundant water resources, with hydropower potential representing 3% of the world's total [3] - Major ports, such as Douala and Kribi, facilitate trade for neighboring landlocked countries [3] Historical Context - Cameroon has a complex colonial history that has led to divisions between English-speaking and French-speaking regions, resulting in ongoing social and political tensions [4] - The English-speaking regions, which make up about 20% of the population, have experienced significant unrest and conflict since 2017, leading to thousands of deaths and displacements [4] Economic Challenges - The rise of extremist groups like Boko Haram has severely impacted local communities and hindered development [5] - Fluctuations in international oil and gas prices have adversely affected Cameroon’s economy, with crude oil export revenues decreasing by 25.6% and liquefied natural gas revenues down by 33.3% year-on-year [5] Government Initiatives - The Cameroonian government is actively seeking economic transformation through a national development strategy for 2020-2030, focusing on manufacturing and agricultural modernization [6] - Key industrial projects are planned, including mining, aluminum production, and fertilizer manufacturing, to drive economic growth [6] - Infrastructure projects, such as the Kribi deep-water port expansion, aim to enhance the country's economic structure and facilitate the processing and export of raw materials [6] Political Landscape - The upcoming presidential election in October 2025 is anticipated to influence the political stability and economic trajectory of Cameroon, with the current president, Paul Biya, announcing his candidacy [7]

｜2025年8月27日 星期三｜ NO.3 百亿元级私募机构二季度重仓五大行业个股 随着A股上市公司2025年中报披露进入尾声，百亿元级私募机构的最新持仓情况逐渐浮出水面。私募排 排网最新数据显示，按2025年8月26日已经披露中报的A股上市公司前十大流通股股东名单统计，已有 27家百亿元级私募机构旗下产品出现在94家公司前十大流通股股东名单中，合计持股市值达347.31亿 元。从行业分布来看，二季度，百亿元级私募机构的重仓股主要集中在电子、医药生物、计算机、机械 设备和基础化工五大领域，重仓股数量依次为15只、13只、10只、8只和7只。 点评：百亿级私募二季度重仓电子、医药生物等五大行业，显示其对科技创新和制造业升级的持续看 好。这些行业代表经济转型方向，私募重仓或引领市场资金流向相关优质标的。电子、计算机等科技板 块估值有望获得支撑，医药生物则受益于人口老龄化趋势。整体来看，私募机构布局反映对结构性机会 的把握，或为市场提供新的投资风向标。 NO.4 长城证券：2025年上半年净利润13.85亿元，同比增长91.92% NO.1 法拍竞价超500次，牛散入场接盘锦龙股份 锦龙股份最新公告披露，公司控股股 ...

今年的主要看点是资本市场，我认为牛市是拉动消费、提振投资者信心的最好手段和最直接方式。资本 市场走强能极大提升投资者对我国经济发展的信心，也是实现物价温和上涨的重要方面。近期我国资本 市场出现向上突破走势，指数放量大涨，突破3800点整数关口，逼近3900点，两市成交量创今年新高， 超过3万亿，也是历史上第二高的日成交量。这说明随着市场利好因素增多，投资者对后市信心不断增 强。 今年宏观经济出现了一定复苏，宏观经济政策持续加码以稳定经济增速，尤其在提振消费方面，出台了 专项行动及消费品以旧换新等措施来稳住消费，进而稳住经济增速。上半年我国经济呈现复苏态势， GDP增长5.3%，超出年初预定的5%左右目标。不过，CPI上半年为负0.1，离2%目标尚有差距，这也表 明下半年稳定增长的政策仍需持续加力。 从外部环境来看，今年面临贸易战冲击，中美谈判仍在进行中。贸易摩擦对全球经济及全球资本市场都 造成了一定冲击，但此次贸易摩擦对我国经济的影响相对有限，我们有必胜信心从容应对，尽量减少对 我国出口的影响。过去一年，我国逐步调整出口结构及出口国家占比，对美出口占比从最高19%降至 24%左右，降低对美出口占比可减少贸易摩 ...

当地时间8月24日晚间（北京时间25日凌晨），第二届电子竞技世界杯在沙特阿拉伯首都利雅得圆满落幕。本届赛事共设置英雄联盟、DOTA2、王者荣耀、 穿越火线等24个热门电竞项目的25项锦标赛，吸引来自全球的2000多名选手参加，设立超过7000万美元（约合5.02亿元人民币）的总奖金池，这也是全球电 竞赛事历史上数额最高的奖金池。 闭幕当天，沙特王储兼首相穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼和约旦王储侯赛因·本·阿卜杜拉等众多嘉宾出席了闭幕式，穆罕默德还亲自为来自沙特的总冠军战队——猎鹰 之队（TeamFalcons）颁发冠军奖杯。该战队还获得700万美元的赛事奖金。 △沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼为总冠军战队颁发奖杯（图片来自沙特通讯社） 总台记者不仅在现场感受到了一场场比赛中的激情与热血，更看到了沙特将电竞作为战略性新兴产业布局的雄心，以及其背后蕴含的经济逻辑与社会效益。 电竞狂欢与中东热情 林荫大道城（BoulevardCity）是利雅得地标性娱乐商业体，也是沙特致力打造的"电竞迪士尼"，近三年来已有多个专业电竞场馆和配套设施在这里建成。比 赛期间，每天傍晚时分，利雅得林荫大道城的餐厅、商铺、互动展馆等陆续开门，园区内人 ...

Economic Growth Projections - China's GDP is projected to reach $20 trillion by 2025, supported by a stable economic growth rate of at least 5% [1][3] - In 2024, China's GDP is estimated at $18.94 trillion, with the first half contributing $8.68 trillion, accounting for 45.83% of the total [3] Trade and Surplus - China's trade surplus for the first seven months reached $683.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%, marking the highest level for the same period [3] - The trade surplus is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion in 2025, providing strong support for economic growth [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Social retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months, but fixed asset investment growth was only 1.6% due to weak real estate and private investment [4] - The uneven development across industries is a core reason for the moderate economic growth rate of around 5% [6] Structural Challenges - The transition from old to new economic drivers is incomplete, with traditional growth engines losing momentum [6] - There is a need for precise macroeconomic regulation and deeper reforms to stimulate private investment and stabilize the real estate market [6] Future Economic Landscape - By 2025, both China and the U.S. are expected to achieve significant GDP milestones, with the U.S. projected to reach $30.04 trillion [8][10] - The economic growth of both countries will have systemic impacts on global trade, investment, and market confidence [10] Quality of Growth - The focus is shifting towards achieving balanced, efficient, and sustainable development, emphasizing the quality of growth alongside quantity [10] - China's economic transformation is aimed at enhancing the quality of life for its citizens while navigating various challenges [10]

Core Viewpoint - The research process is iterative and requires continuous denial and reconstruction to approach the truth, emphasizing the importance of diligent and practical research in the investment banking sector [22]. Group 1 - The year 2025 is marked as a year of comprehensive upgrade for the research team, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research results [22]. - The new development phase of the economy is characterized by a shift in policy focus towards "people-centered" strategies, emphasizing long-term strategies for expanding domestic demand rather than short-term stimuli [25]. - The "new three drivers" of the economy, including service consumption, service industry investment, and service exports, have shown significant acceleration, indicating an approaching transformation opportunity [24]. Group 2 - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry attention, broader coverage, and stronger coordination between policies and market mechanisms [26]. - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to experience significant changes, particularly with the "American exceptionalism" narrative being challenged, leading to a rebalancing of global funds [29]. - Geopolitical risks have become a crucial factor in global macroeconomics and asset pricing since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ongoing developments in geopolitical tensions influencing market narratives [32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a bull market trend is being established, with expectations for the third quarter and the overall market in the second half of the year [1][2][3] - The sectors expected to sustain growth in the future are primarily concentrated in consumption, finance, and technology, with finance and technology already showing upward momentum [1][2] - The banking sector is attracting attention from investors seeking low valuations and high dividends, although there may be profit-taking once the market rises [1][2] Group 2 - The consumption sector has shown relatively poor performance this year, particularly due to slowing income growth and policy impacts, but there is potential for recovery in the third quarter [2] - The current market trend is shifting from a localized bull market to a broader advantage, with more sectors beginning to participate in the upward movement [2] - The bull market is expected to last for two to three years, indicating a long-term investment opportunity rather than a short-term trend [2]