Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The net - outflow trend of bond ETF funds continues but the amplitude narrows, and the capital flow is expected to return to normal. The current continuous capital outflow is mainly due to the inertia of year - end impulse funds withdrawal. With the bond market warming up and the release of the "good start" allocation demand in the first quarter, the capital flow of bond ETFs is expected to be supported after short - term disturbances subside [2][5]. - The net - outflow pressure of credit - bond ETFs is gradually easing, while convertible - bond ETFs continue to receive net inflows, which may reflect the trend of some funds switching between major asset classes during the adjustment of the equity market [6]. - The share of convertible - bond ETFs has increased significantly, and the net value of major bond ETFs has generally risen, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the gains [16][21]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net - outflow situation of bond ETFs continues, but the amplitude narrows. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 63.01 billion yuan, - 116.48 billion yuan, and + 23.05 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 156.44 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of January 23, 2026, the bond ETF fund scale was 734.575 billion yuan, down 1.79% from the previous week and 11.41% from the beginning of the year, but its proportion in the whole - market ETF scale increased by 40bp [5]. - The net - outflow pressure of credit - bond ETFs eases. The science - innovation bond ETF has had the largest net outflows for three consecutive weeks after a large inflow at the end of last year, with a net outflow of 6.86 billion yuan last week, and the outflow scale narrowed slightly compared with the previous week. Convertible - bond ETFs continued to receive net inflows of 2.305 billion yuan [6]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额及代表产品净值走势 - The share of convertible - bond ETFs increased significantly. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the shares of various types of bond ETFs changed by - 5.5%, - 5.1%, - 1.1%, - 4.5%, - 2.5%, 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 3.2% respectively compared with the previous week, with a total change of - 4.8% for bond - type ETFs [16]. - The net value of major bond ETFs generally rose, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the gains. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the net values of selected representative bond ETFs changed by 1.17%, 0.30%, 0.09%, 0.06%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 2.88% respectively compared with the previous week [21]. 1.3 各基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share of Company Bond ETF Southern had the largest outflow. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the shares of 8 existing credit - bond ETFs changed by no change, - 5.35%, - 3.42%, - 2.03%, - 7.67%, - 6.82%, - 3.27%, and - 2.18% respectively compared with the previous week [25]. - The net value rose slightly, with Credit Bond ETF leading the gains. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs changed by 0.14%, 0.11%, 0.12%, 0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12%, 0.15%, and 0.13% respectively compared with the previous week [27]. 1.4 各科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Bank of China and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Invesco increased slightly. The net share inflow of 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs last week was - 68.49 million shares, a decrease of 2.27% compared with the previous week [30][31]. - The net value continued to rise. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the average net values of the first - and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.11% and 0.11% respectively compared with the previous week. The median net values of products tracking relevant indexes also had certain increases [33]. 1.5 上周单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - Benefiting from the strengthening of the bond market, the net values of bond ETF products generally rose. Convertible - bond ETF, Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF, and 30 - Year Treasury Bond ETF Bosera led the gains, with increases of 2.88%, 2.40%, and 1.26% respectively [36]. - In terms of the premium - discount rate, Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF, Convertible - Bond ETF, and Treasury Bond ETF had leading premium rates, while the discount of benchmark - market - making credit - bond and science - innovation bond ETFs intensified. In terms of scale changes, most bond ETF products' scales decreased, but Convertible - Bond ETF (+ 2.456 billion yuan), Short - Term Financing ETF (+ 0.309 billion yuan), and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Bank of China (+ 0.2 billion yuan) had positive net inflows and ranked among the top three [36]. 1.6 基准做市信用债和科创债 ETF 的 PCF 清单边际变化 - The estimated change of the modified duration of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs last week was small. For products tracking relevant indexes, the average modified duration of newly added bonds in the PCF list of some ETFs was significantly longer than their own modified duration [38]. - The estimated change of the modified duration of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huatai - PineBridge, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Harvest, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fullgoal was relatively large. For products tracking different indexes, the average modified duration of newly added bonds in the PCF list of some ETFs was significantly longer than that of similar bonds [39]. - Bonds such as 25 Jiangtong K1, Jingzi K15, and 24 Tiegong K4 were repeatedly included in the PCF list of science - innovation bond ETFs, while 23 Jili K1, 25 Jingdong SK, 25 Shudao K3, and Jiancai K13 were removed by multiple science - innovation bond ETFs [42].