信用型 ETF 资金流出，久期下降 ——债券 ETF 跟踪 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2026 年 01 月 12 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 分析师：苏恩民 执业证书编号：S0740525070002 Email：suem@zts.com.cn 资金流向 相关报告 截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，债券型 ETF 近一周合计净流出 643.52 亿元，利率型、信用 型、可转债型 ETF 分别净流出 104.54 亿元、净流出 592.24 亿元、净流入 53.25 亿 元。具体拆分来看，信用型 ETF 中，短融、公司债、城投债分别净流出 83.94 亿元、 净流入 2.42 亿元、净流出 0.06 亿元，做市信用债净流出 70.71 亿元，科创债净流出 439.95 亿元。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，利率型、信用型、可转债 ETF 自 2025 年以来 累计净流入分别为 659.23 亿元、5010.41 亿元、231.51 亿元，合计达 5901.15 亿元。 净值表现 全周来看，各类型债券 ETF 产品净值走 ...

Report Information - The report is a weekly fixed - income regular report on bond ETFs from November 3rd to November 7th, 2025, titled "Bond ETF Weekly Tracking (11.3 - 11.7): Market Net Inflow Growth Marginal Narrowing" [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall net inflow growth of the bond ETF market has narrowed marginally, with the increment mainly coming from interest - rate bond ETFs. The net inflow of convertible bond ETFs is negative [4][7] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The overall net inflow growth of bond ETFs has narrowed marginally, and the increment mainly comes from interest - rate bond ETFs. Last week, the net inflow funds of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs were 4.914 billion yuan, 1.394 billion yuan, and - 1.574 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 4.734 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of November 7, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 70.6121 billion yuan, up 0.87% from the previous week's close and 292.79% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.28% of the total market ETF scale, up 1bp from the previous weekend [4][7] - Treasury bond ETFs led the net inflow, and the growth of short - term financing and local bond ETFs continued. Last week, treasury bond ETFs (+ 2.698 billion yuan), short - term financing ETFs (+ 2.553 billion yuan), and local bond ETFs (+ 2.223 billion yuan) ranked top three in net inflow amount. Convertible bond ETFs, science and technology innovation bond ETFs, and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had negative net inflows, with - 1.574 billion yuan, - 1.390 billion yuan, and - 0.515 billion yuan respectively [7] 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share inflows of interest - rate bond and credit bond ETFs improved marginally, and the local bond ETFs had a steep growth. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs were 683.88 million shares, 442.47 million shares, 127.08 million shares, 7185.08 million shares, and 4954.95 million shares respectively, with a total of 13393.45 million shares for bond - type ETFs. Compared with the close on October 31, 2025, they changed by 22.53 million shares, - 0.08 million shares, 19.41 million shares, 35.81 million shares, and - 116.90 million shares respectively, with a total change of - 39.22 million shares [21] 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Convertible bond ETFs had a large - scale share outflow. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the shares of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF were 279.89 million shares, 379.37 million shares, 31.73 million shares, 2635.48 million shares, and 4241.99 million shares respectively. Compared with the close on October 31, 2025, they changed by 11.78 million shares, - 0.06 million shares, no change, 27.80 million shares, and - 99.70 million shares respectively [24] - The net value performance was differentiated, and some interest - rate bond ETFs turned down. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 5 - year local bond ETF, urban investment bond ETF, and convertible bond ETF were 1.2549, 1.1502, 1.2577, 1.4377, and 1.3610 respectively, changing by - 0.37%, - 0.10%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.85% respectively compared with the close on October 31, 2025 [27] 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The share change was not obvious, and some products had a small - scale outflow. As of the close on November 7, 2025, among the 8 existing benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, the shares of some products changed by no change, no change, no change, no change, - 2.11 million shares, - 1.00 million shares, no change, - 2.00 million shares respectively compared with the close on October 31, 2025 [30] - The upward momentum of the net value weakened. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the net values of the 8 credit bond ETFs changed by 0.06%, 0.05%, 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.05% respectively compared with the close on October 31, 2025. Looking at each single day, the net value showed a turning trend at the end of last week, and the growth momentum showed signs of weakening after continuous upward movement for many weeks [33] 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - Last week, the shares of science and technology innovation bond ETFs decreased more than they increased. The net inflow of shares of the 24 existing science and technology innovation bond ETFs was - 10.56 million shares, a decrease of 0.42% compared with the previous week. The top three products in terms of share net inflow were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF China Merchants (+ 2.00 million shares), Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Penghua (+ 1.39 million shares), and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Huaxia (+ 1.25 million shares). The top three products in terms of share net outflow were Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Boshi (- 7.00 million shares), Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo (- 3.85 million shares), and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Southern (- 2.12 million shares) [36] - The net value was higher than the previous week's closing price, but showed an "inverted U" trend during the week. As of the close on November 7, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.05% and 0.03% respectively compared with the previous week's close, but the net value of each science and technology innovation bond ETF showed a decline at the weekend [37] 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - The 0 - 4 local bond ETF led the net inflow for two consecutive weeks, and the convertible bond - type ETF led the net value increase. Last week, the net values of 30 - year treasury bond ETF Boshi and 30 - year treasury bond ETF turned down after leading the increase for several consecutive weeks, with - 0.41% and - 0.39% respectively. Convertible bond ETF and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible Bond ETF benefited from the excellent performance of the equity market, with their net value increases ranking among the top, at + 0.85% and + 0.83% respectively [40] - In terms of the premium - discount rate, 30 - year treasury bond ETF, 30 - year treasury bond ETF Boshi, and benchmark treasury bond ETF led with 0.08%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively, reflecting the market capital preference. In terms of scale change, short - term financing ETF (+ 2.553 billion yuan), 0 - 4 local bond ETF (+ 2.100 billion yuan), and 30 - year treasury bond ETF (+ 1.413 billion yuan) ranked top three in net inflow amount, while the convertible bond ETF had a significantly higher net outflow amount than other products, at - 1.353 billion yuan [40]