1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Japan's bond market is dominated by government and quasi - government bonds, and the scale of government debt has been continuously increasing, while the growth of corporate and individual debt may stagnate in the stage of population negative growth [5][15]. - The Bank of Japan is the most important investor in the Japanese bond market, holding nearly half of Japanese government bonds. Banks and insurance companies have a relatively high proportion of overseas bond holdings due to low domestic bond yields. Although Japan's government debt - to - GDP ratio is high, it has not experienced a currency crisis because most of its government bonds are held by domestic investors [17]. - Japan's stock funds have grown significantly, while the scale of fixed - income funds has nearly reached zero. When the 10 - year government bond yield is below 2%, the scale of bond funds starts to decline; when it is below 1.5%, the decline accelerates; when it is below 0.5%, the scale may gradually reach zero [1][99]. - In the low - interest - rate era, the indexation and ETF - ization of bond funds are major trends, and the fee rate shows a downward trend. Global bond funds may be a direction when domestic bond yields are low under the condition of free capital convertibility [1][101]. - China is in a low - interest - rate era. The development of domestic pure - bond funds may stagnate, and it is recommended to actively follow the trend of bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization, develop overseas bond funds, and strengthen the development of fixed - income plus funds [102][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Japan's Bond Market Structure's Long - term Changes 3.1.1 Japan's Economic Past and Present - After World War II, Japan's economy grew rapidly from 1961 - 1990, with an average real GDP growth rate of 6.2%. In the 1980s, Japan was world - leading in many fields. However, since the 1990s, due to the bursting of the real - estate and stock - market bubbles, Japan has entered a "lost era", with an average real GDP growth rate of only 0.7% from 1992 - 2024 [6]. - Japan's GDP was once very close to that of the United States in 1995, accounting for 72.6% of the US GDP. But by 2024, it was only 13.8% of the US GDP [7]. 3.1.2 Japan's Bond Market Structure Changes - Japan's bond types include government bonds, corporate bonds, financial bonds, etc. Government and quasi - government bonds are the main part of the bond market. As of the end of 2024, the balance of government and quasi - government bonds accounted for 92.3% of the total bond - market scale [9]. - Since 1998, the proportion of government and quasi - government bonds in the Japanese bond market has gradually increased from 64.1% to 92.3%. The scale of the Japanese bond market has been growing, but the scale of convertible bonds has nearly reached zero, reflecting the low financing demand of Japanese enterprises [9][14]. - Looking forward, the scale of Chinese government bonds may continue to increase, and the proportion of government bonds in the bond market may continue to rise [15]. 3.2 Japan's Bond Market Investor Structure Changes 3.2.1 Holders of Japanese Government Bonds - As of the end of 2023, the Bank of Japan held 47.9% of Japanese government bonds, followed by insurance companies, banks, pension funds, and overseas investors [18]. - The issuance term of Japanese government bonds is relatively long, with bonds with a term of 10 years and above accounting for 76.4% of the balance as of the end of 2023 [20]. 3.2.2 Bond Investment of Various Japanese Investors - The Bank of Japan is the core investor in Japanese government bonds. As of the end of 2024, it held 582.7 trillion yen of government bonds, accounting for 47.5% of the government - bond balance. The Bank of Japan's assets are mainly government bonds [22][28]. - Japanese financial institutions have a relatively high proportion of overseas bond holdings. As of March 2024, overseas bonds accounted for 37.6% of the bond investments of Japanese domestic banks and 25.2% of those of the insurance industry [29]. - The proportion of securities investment of Mitsubishi UFJ Bank has decreased significantly since 2013, which is related to the low bond yields in Japan. When the 10 - year government bond yield falls below 1%, the proportion of its securities investment decreases significantly [31][32]. - Japanese life - insurance companies invest a significant amount in Japanese government bonds and also have a relatively high proportion of overseas - securities investment. The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has a relatively high proportion of stock investment, with a 49.9% stock - investment ratio at the end of 2024 [39][40]. - Japanese retail government bonds have three main terms: 3, 5, and 10 years. The amount of government bonds held by individual investors has remained at a low level in recent years, which is related to the decline in government - bond yields [43]. 3.3 Japan's Public - Fund Industry's Seventy - year Development 3.3.1 Long - term Changes in Japan's Public - Fund Industry - Japan's public - fund industry has a history of more than 70 years. The earliest securities investment trust appeared in 1937, and the legal basis for modern securities investment trust was established in 1951. The earliest open - end stock investment fund was established in 1952, and the earliest bond fund was established in 1961 [53]. - The development of Japan's public funds can be divided into four stages: the start - up stage (before 1971), the booming development stage (1972 - 1989), the stock - fund downturn stage (1990 - 1997), and the stock - fund maturity stage (after 1997). As of the end of 2024, the total scale of Japanese public funds reached a record high of 246 trillion yen, with stock funds accounting for the majority [54][55][56]. 3.3.2 Structure Evolution and Investment Direction of Japan's Stock Funds - Japan's stock funds can invest in both domestic and overseas bonds and stocks. The scale of bonds invested by stock funds was once higher than that of stocks, but since 2012, the proportion of bond investment has decreased significantly [60]. - As of the end of 2024, Japanese stock funds held 10.1 trillion yen of domestic stocks, accounting for 10.2% of the total market value of the Japanese stock market. The top three industries with increased investment proportions from 2011 - 2024 were electrical appliances, services, and retail, while the top three with decreased proportions were automobiles, chemicals, and glass and ceramics [64]. - The proportion of bond investment by Japanese stock funds is closely related to the stock - market situation and bond - yield levels. As of the end of 2024, the bond - investment proportion of Japanese stock funds was only 8.0% [66]. - Since 2013, the scale of Japanese stock funds has increased significantly, which is closely related to the rise of the stock market and the development of ETFs. As of the end of 2024, the scale of ETFs in stock funds accounted for 38.8% [68]. 3.3.3 Evolution of Japan's Fixed - Income Funds - Japan's fixed - income funds are mainly divided into money funds (MMF), long - term bond funds, medium - term government - bond funds, domestic - and - foreign - bond funds, and money reserve funds (MRF). Currently, the scale of money funds, medium - term government - bond funds, and domestic - and - foreign - bond funds has reached zero [71]. - The scale of Japanese money funds reached zero in 2017 due to the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary - easing policies and negative interest rates [75]. - The scale of Japanese bond funds has decreased significantly. As of the end of 2024, the scale of long - term bond funds was only 0.45 trillion yen, and the fixed - income funds are mainly MRF, with a scale of 15.3 trillion yen [71][84]. 3.3.4 Competition Pattern of Japanese Asset - Management Institutions - As of the end of 2024, there were hundreds of asset - management institutions in Japan, including 80 public - asset - management companies. The total management scale of public - asset - management institutions was 380 trillion yen, with public - fund scale at 246 trillion yen [90]. - Nomura Asset Management dominates the market, and the top five public - fund institutions account for nearly 70% of the market share. The indexation and ETF - ization characteristics of Japanese stock funds are obvious, and the average fee rate of public funds is in a downward trend [91][95][97]. 3.4 Enlightenment from the Development of Japanese Fixed - Income Funds 3.4.1 Enlightenment from the Development of Japanese Fixed - Income Funds - When the 10 - year government - bond yield is below 0.5%, the development of fixed - income funds may reach an end. The current main part of Japanese fixed - income funds is MRF, which is less sensitive to yield [98][100]. - If capital is freely convertible, global bond funds may be a direction when domestic bond yields are low. However, the total scale of Japanese bond funds investing in overseas bonds is not large due to exchange - rate risks and hedging costs [100]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, the indexation and ETF - ization of bond funds are major trends, and the fee rate shows a downward trend [101]. 3.4.2 Where Do Bond Funds Go in the Low - Interest - Rate Era? - China is in a low - interest - rate era, and the development of domestic pure - bond funds may stagnate. It is recommended to actively follow the trend of bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization, develop overseas bond funds, and strengthen the development of fixed - income plus funds [102][106][109]. - In the low - interest - rate era, bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization are major trends. Nomura Asset Management has many bond ETFs and index funds. China's fund companies can actively layout bond - segment index funds or ETFs [109][112]. - Fund companies are advised to actively obtain QDII quotas and vigorously layout overseas - bond investments [117]. - Fixed - income plus funds still have broad development space and can be further segmented, and the scope of plus - assets can be expanded [118].